Labour party

Jeremy Corbyn on track to be next Labour leader, according to new poll

Could Jeremy Corbyn actually win the Labour leadership race? A new poll from The Times/YouGov suggests that he will. The new poll of eligible voters in the leadership contest — party members, registered supporters and affiliated trade unionists — has Corbyn on track to win in the final round of voting with 53 per cent of the vote, with the current bookies’ favourite Andy Burnham trailing six points behind on 47 per cent. The left-wing leadership candidate’s lead on first preferences is even more jaw-dropping. YouGov has Corbyn on 43 per cent, compared to Burnham on 26, Yvette Cooper on 20 and Liz Kendall on 11. Based on this, Kendall would be knocked out in

Andy Burnham opens fire at Labour’s ‘current leadership’ over the Welfare Bill

Relations between Andy Burnham and Harriet Harman must be disintegrating quickly. After the leadership favourite abstained during last night’s vote on the Welfare Bill, Burnham attempted to his logic on the World at One. Burnham said his mind hadn’t changed and he has always been in favour of a ‘reasoned amendment’ — but he was unhappy with how the vote went: ‘Let me be clear: this was still a compromise position and it wasn’t a strong enough position for me. But I as leader firstly would have opposed this bill outright last night and would do so if elected leader. ‘And number two though, I faced a choice: did I, having made the party move

The 48 welfare rebels demonstrate the ‘Miliband effect’ on the Labour party

One in five members of the Parliamentary Labour Party voted against the party whip last night. Although the second reading of the government’s Welfare Bill passed, it shows that the party is divided. I’ve been through the list of the 48 rebels are there are two trends amongst the rebels: many nominated Jeremy Corbyn for leader and the majority entered Parliament in the last few years. In the leadership contest, 18 of the rebels backed Corbyn for leader, compared to 15 for Andy Burnham, nine for Yvette Cooper and just one Liz Kendall supporter. Five of the rebels didn’t back anyone. Burnham is clearly spooked by this, judging by a

Steerpike

Revealed: The ‘Blairite’ crime policy that never was

With rumours flying around the Commons that if elected, Labour leadership hopeful Jeremy Corbyn would appoint a Shadow Peace Secretary in the place of a Shadow Defence Secretary, Mr S is also looking forward to hearing Corbyn’s plans to reform judicial punishment. However, Mr S is happy to place a bet on his approach not being as radical as a crime policy Tony Blair heaped praise on while in power. In today’s Times, Blair’s former chief speechwriter Philip Collins reveals what happened when he put forward a paper which suggested Blair take a less liberal approach when it came to dealing with crime: ‘The Blair government was, to my mind, daftly authoritarian

The Welfare Bill has passed — and revealed a split in Labour

The Welfare Reform and Work Bill has, as expected, passed its second reading in the House of Commons, with 48 Labour MPs defying their party whip and voting against, while Harriet Harman and the rest of the party abstained. We will bring you a full list of rebels as soon as it is available and it will be interesting to see how many new MPs (from a rather left-wing 2015 intake) have joined the rebels. The size of the rebellion is not particularly surprising given the number of MPs who had signed up to Helen Goodman’s rebel reasoned amendment (which was not called, and Harman’s official amendment failed to pass, as

Has Liz Kendall’s campaign run out of momentum?

Liz Kendall’s chances of winning the Labour leadership contest appear to be slipping away. On several measures, she has fallen into fourth place. Kendall has just 12 nominations from constituency Labour parties, compared to 58 for Yvette Cooper, 67 for Andy Burnham and 70 for Jeremy Corbyn. Leaked internal Labour party polling also put her in last place. The bookies concur: Ladbrokes currently have 10/1 odds on Kendall as the next Labour leader, compared to evens for Burnham, 9/4 for Cooper and 4/1 for Corbyn. Part of the problem might be Kendall’s strategy of throwing bucket after bucket of cold water over the Labour party. Take her speech this morning on devolution,

Five things we learnt from the Sunday Politics Labour leadership hustings

The four Labour leadership contenders took part in another televised hustings today, this time chaired by Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics. With just over 50 days left of this contest, the candidates are now more comfortable in each other’s company and seem much happier to attack each other. Although no one spectacularly won or failed, a few moments did provide some insight into the current state of the race. Here are five key points from today’s hustings. 1. Corbyn is comfortable running as the far left candidate. The rise of Corbynmania has overlooked that he has no frontbench experience and little idea of how to do serious politics. His appearance on the Sunday

George Osborne crashes Number 10 for Treasury party

When George Osborne stepped in for David Cameron at PMQs, it was seen as the Chancellor’s chance to show that he had what it takes to be Prime Minister. With that bit of housekeeping done, the Chancellor seemed to let his ambition to move into Number 10 go to his head last night. Osborne broke with tradition by hosting his summer party in the Number 10 garden, rather than the Treasury courtyard. However, as guests wandered through the Number 10 door to raise a glass to the Conservative leadership hopeful, there was one snag. Rather than the usual supply of delicate canapés, hungry hacks were invited to feast on an austerity-friendly spread of Doritos and pretzels.

Were ‘Lazy Labour’ voters, not ‘Shy Tories’, responsible for the election result?

The British Election Study is continuing to dig into why the pollsters called the general election incorrectly. Its latest batch of research suggests that the theories of a late swing to the Tories, a shift in the ‘don’t knows’ or ‘Shy Tories’ emerging on polling day may not hold the answer. Instead, the BES’s evidence suggests that ‘lazy Labour’ voters were a significant factor — i.e. those who said they would vote Labour in surveys, but didn’t turn out on polling day. The BES explains: ‘Labour lead among unlikely voters grew hugely between 2010 and 2015, suggesting that differential turnout is an important factor in explaining the polling miss: considerably fewer of those saying

Isabel Hardman

Labour MPs push for an amendment to the welfare bill

The Labour welfare rebellion advances further, with Helen Goodman tabling a ‘reasoned amendment’ to the Welfare Reform and Work Bill. She says she has the support of 40 Labour MPs for the amendment, which reads as follows: ‘That this House declines to give a Second Reading to the Welfare Reform and Work Bill, notwithstanding its potentially useful provisions on apprenticeships, because the Bill would have the effect of ignoring the plight of children in low income working households, removing the concept of child poverty from the statute book, increasing the number of children, especially those from large families, living in poverty, worsening work incentives for people whose incomes are below

Podcast: working with al-Qa’eda and the rise of Jeremy Corbyn

How has al-Qa’eda become the ‘moderate’ option in the Middle East? On the latest View from 22 podcast, Ahmed Rashid and Douglas Murray discuss this week’s Spectator cover feature on how a fear of Isis is leading Arab states to support the lesser of two evils. Is working with al-Qa’eda offshoots the only choice for Western countries? How significant was the decision not to bomb Syria in fighting Isis? And how does the new deal with Iran affect the West’s efforts? James Forsyth and George Eaton also discuss the momentum behind Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign to be Labour leader. Are some in the parliamentary Labour party regretting ‘loaning’ Corbyn MPs to put him on the ballot paper? How has his presence affected what the other candidates are doing? And

Government signs up Labour’s Andrew Adonis to oversee HS2 delivery

In an impressive cross-party signing, the government has appointed Lord Adonis, the former Labour transport secretary, to oversee delivery of the HS2 railway. Lord Adonis gave birth to the idea of HS2 prior to the 2010 election and has remained a vocal advocate for the project ever since. The transport secretary Patrick McLoughlin said in a statement he was ‘extremely pleased’ that Adonis is joining the board of HS2 Ltd as a non-executive director. Adonis himself described HS2 as a project of ‘national significance’: ‘Patrick McLoughlin has been a powerful advocate for the project and the government has risen to the challenge of thinking about the long-term by putting in place a

James Forsyth

Jeremy Corbyn’s extraordinary success is a coup for the Tories | 15 July 2015

It wasn’t meant to work out this way. A month ago, Westminster watched to see if Jeremy Corbyn could get the support of the 35 MPs he needed to enter the Labour leadership race. At the time, it seemed a sort of joke. After all, the people who were lending him their backing weren’t doing so for any great love of Corbyn. As a rule, they either wanted a ‘broad debate’ or thought that the ritual slaughter of the left-wing candidate would make it easier for the new leader to move the party to the centre. A month on, things look very different. Corbyn now has the endorsement of Unite,

Fraser Nelson

Britain would be the loser if Jeremy Corbyn is elected Labour’s leader

It’s hit Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber and the New York Mets and now the Labour Party has become the victim of vote hijacking: people voting for an unlikely candidate for a joke, just because they can. The impeccably informed Stephen Bush reveals that: ‘”More than two thirds” of new recruits since the election are supporters of Jeremy Corbyn, a finding mirrored by the leadership campaigns’ experience of phoning new members’ This won’t come as a surprise to the Tory supporters who have been busy joining Labour to vote for the unelectable Corbyn. In an attempt to copy the SNP’s membership surge, Labour is offering the chance to become a ‘registered supporter’ for

James Forsyth

PMQs: the Tories are set for a happy summer holiday

This was the last PMQs before the recess, and the Tory side of the House was in an end of term mood. When Harriet Harman stood up, the Tory benches enthusiastically beckoned her over — a reference to the anger in Labour circles at her openness to Tory plans to limit child tax credits to two children for new claimants. But Harman turned in a decent performance in her penultimate PMQs outing. She asked Cameron about the Greek crisis and drew some rather loose-lipped talk from him about how if Greece left the Euro, the UK would be prepared to assist with humanitarian aid. I suspect this answer won’t have

Liz Kendall’s Facebook Q&A offers a window into the Labour party’s madness

Liz Kendall spent an hour on Facebook this evening answering questions from Labour supporters. Those sitting on a social network on a Tuesday evening are clearly not entirely representative of the party’s membership, but this Q&A suggests Kendall has a perception problem in some quarters. The sheer vitriol of the comments from those who claim to be Labour supporters shows that some folks really do not like Kendall. Here is a selection some of the users had to about Kendall being a supposed closest Tory (these posts enviably had the most likes, far more than her responses): ‪Paul Whiteley‪: Hi Liz…..sorry but don’t you think with your right of centre policies & views that you might not

Isabel Hardman

What should be done about welfare? Don’t ask the Shadow Cabinet

The Shadow Cabinet has split all ways on what to do about welfare. Andy Burnham says he wants a reasoned amendment to the second reading of the welfare reform and work bill that protests some of the policies, but I understand he indicated in Shadow Cabinet that he would go along with the official party line anyway when the vote comes. There is, though, quite a lot of confidence that Harman will capitulate and allow a reasoned amendment, which would make things much easier. If she does not, then not opposing the legislation will be ‘difficult’ for Yvette Cooper, sources on her campaign team say, given rebelling against the party would

Steerpike

Lord Adonis ‘stranded in Philippines’: send cash immediately

This morning’s mailbox gave Mr S cause for alarm. A message popped up from Lord Adonis explaining that he had been mugged on holiday in the Philippines and was ‘freaked out’. While Tony Blair’s former adviser had managed to keep possession of his passport, he apparently needed cash fast: Just as Mr S was about to dig deep, he noticed something in the email that was uncharacteristic of the Labour politician – the real Lord Adonis would never use a capital P for ‘point in time’. Happily, Lord Adonis assures Steerpike that none of his friends have fallen for the scammer’s email. However, that doesn’t mean the scammer isn’t expecting a lump sum to land in his

Labour has lost its senses if it thinks Liz Kendall is a Tory

Here are four things that Liz Kendall has said during the Labour leadership campaign. First, that she would never close a successful school. Second, that the country should always come first, not the party. Third, that the UK should spend at last 2 per cent of GDP in defence. And finally, that Harriet Harman is right — Labour need to understand that the voters did not trust them on welfare, and that regaining that trust is as important as gaining a reputation for economic competence. To a voter, none of this is particularly controversial. Good schools, patriotism, strong defence and fair welfare — that’s what they want, that’s what government