Labour party

Labour tries to confound expectations with tough-sounding manifesto front page

Labour’s manifesto launch today sees the party seeking to confound expectations. Even though the party would prefer to fight a comfortable election campaign on the NHS, the fact remains that no party has won when behind in the polls on both the ratings of its leader and on the economy. And so the first page of the party’s manifesto, which was released last night, says this: ‘Our manifesto begins with the Budget Responsibility Lock we offer the British people. It is the basis for all our plans in this manifesto because it is by securing our national finances that we are able to secure the family finances of the working

This week, the Tories must seize the initiative

Even Tory insiders admit that while they broadly had the better of the first week of the campaign, Labour had the better of the week just gone.  This makes it imperative for their hopes of re-election that the Tories wrest back the initiative this week. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, if they don’t, Tory discipline—which is already beginning to fray a bit—will crack, and Ed Miliband will have the keys to Number 10 within his grasp. The Tories have made a decent start to this task. Labour has been unsure of how to respond to the Tories’ commitment to give £8 billion more to the NHS. While

James Forsyth

Tories try to use their lead on the economy to bolster their position on the NHS

The Tories believe that their record in government and their lead on economic competence means that they can set out spending commitments without having to set out precisely how they would pay for them. George Osborne’s interview on Marr this morning was a demonstration of this strategy. Challenged repeatedly over where the £8 billion for the NHS that he and Cameron pledged yesterday would come from, Osborne simply pointed out that they have managed to increase the amount of money going into the health service every year over the last five years despite having to make significant spending cuts. However much it infuriates their opponents, I suspect that this Tory

The Sun gets cold feet about Labour

Earlier this month the Sun‘s election website ran a story about their plans to back Labour. In the online article, they teased that the paper was backing Labour, something which would come as a shock given that their owner Rupert Murdoch has an ongoing feud with Ed Miliband. IT’S OFFICIAL: We’re first out of the traps… http://t.co/nmQZX3lzAJ #SunNation pic.twitter.com/Tr4oxLI8x5 — Tim Gatt (@TimGatt) April 2, 2015 However, upon further reading of the article it became clear that instead of backing Miliband in the general election, they were simply supporting a rather dashing mutt called Labour in a greyhound race. Now word reaches Steerpike that little Labour had originally been meant for greater stardom than a fleeting mention. In fact, Mr S’s

Deficit? What deficit? Labour candidates ignore key issue

Ed Miliband famously forgot to mention the deficit in his 2014 conference speech, but you would have thought that at least some prospective Labour MPs consider it to be a crucial issue facing Britain. The country is, after all, spending £46bn a year on debt interest payments alone – the equivalent of the Defence, Home Office and Foreign Office budgets combined. But not so, according to new research presented at a briefing by Ipsos MORI this morning. The pollster interviewed new prospective parliamentary candidates from each of the four main parties – all standing in marginal or safe seats – and asked them to name their political priorities. Of the

Steerpike

Labour admit journalists ‘are people too’

Is Labour’s war on the media finally over? After Mr S reported this week that journalists were jeered for asking questions at a Tony Blair event, relations between the party and the media appear to have warmed. As Ed Miliband and Ed Balls head north of the border to campaign with Jim Murphy, it fell to the Scottish leader to make peace with hacks. Opening up their press conference in Edinburgh to journalists’ questions, Murphy declared they would let some ‘people’ ask questions too, once the pesky media had been dealt with: ‘It’s only journalists with their hand up at the moment, but they’re people too.’ A notable warming in relations, Mr S thanks

Is Ed Miliband really prepared to risk £8.27 billion on an election stunt?

It’s a common assumption that non-doms pay little tax. It’s certainly an assumption made by Ed Miliband, who has announced plans to scrap the non-dom status for long-term residents. ‘There are 116,000 non-doms costing hundreds of millions of pounds to our country. It can no longer be justified and it makes Britain a tax haven for the few,’ he said. But how does Miliband explain the £8.27 billion of income tax and NIC paid by non-doms in 2012-13? The average non-dom claiming the remittance basis pays £132,762 of income tax per annum, 25 times more than the average British tax payer. Whether Miliband likes to admit it or not, non-doms make a significant direct financial contribution

Miliband vs Millwall

I’ve been trying to think of a good football analogy to describe the battle between the two main parties as the general election approaches. One suggestion is the second leg of a Champions League game, with the Conservatives having won the first leg by one goal to nil. If we assume that the Tories are playing at home, that means Labour have to score two goals to win, whereas all the Tories have to do is not concede. Last week’s debate certainly felt like that, with Cameron playing a tight, defensive game and Miliband trying to score at every opportunity. The Conservative leader ended up winning on aggregate because the

Swing time

The age of two-party politics is over: we know that because everyone keeps saying so. We are entering an era of coalitions, apparently, where compromise is king and a wider variety of views will be represented in parliament. These barely comprehensible seven-way television debates are the future, we are assured, and decisive general election results a thing of the past. Look deeper and this analysis falls apart. Even now, Labour and the Conservatives between them have about two thirds of the vote, just as they did at the last general election. What we are witnessing is the collapse of the Liberal Democrats, who have been reduced — on a bad

Podcast special: polls and personal attacks

With 28 days to go, is the momentum beginning to move towards Labour? In this View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss the latest polls and campaign developments. Five new polls have been released today, three of which show a Labour lead — should the Tories be worried? Have the two Scottish leaders’ debates made any difference to the SNP’s vote? And was Michael Fallon’s attack on Ed Miliband premeditated? You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer every week, or you can use the player below:

Isabel Hardman

Tony Blair rallies the troops at Labour HQ

Tony Blair gave a speech at Labour HQ this afternoon, I understand, which rather puts paid to the claim that he was doing the very minimum required of the former Prime Minister to help his party. I hear from those present that it was a very upbeat address, in which Blair told Labourites he was optimistic about the party’s chances in this election. He also reflected on his speech on Tuesday in which he warned of the dangers of a European referendum and described his party’s outlook as a progressive internationalist one. My source tells me the speech was very well received: even if there are many in Labour who are glad

Steerpike

Labour accuse Lynton Crosby of ‘going nuclear’ to distract from non-dom row

Despite their leader playing the pious ‘not angry, but disappointed’ shtick at his press conference this morning, it’s not all po-faces over in Labour land after the Tories’ latest attack on Ed Miliband. ‘Lynton Crosby has literally had to go nuclear to distract from non-doms,’ chuckles a chirpy Labour source. Tory sources back this up, saying it was Crosby’s personal idea to re-open the ‘stab in the back’ narrative. Strikingly, Philip Hammond refused to repeat this language on the television today. ‘But it’s a perfectly reasonable attack line,’ says a disgruntled Labour source. ‘In the Labour leadership campaign, Ed was attacked for stabbing his brother in the back. Then, Ed’s people reacted as they reacted now

Fraser Nelson

Sturgeon hints that the SNP would never back a Labour budget

“Is it sensible to spend your way out of debt?” ran the opening question in the last night’s Scottish leaders debate – marking it out, straight away, as something very different from politics-as-usual. It was set in Aberdeen, hence the greater concentration of common sense. The six-way debate was feisty and refreshing, and of a calibre higher than the seven-way UK leaders’ debate. Scotland has joined Denmark in producing the best political drama, except this is real. Nicola Sturgeon won last week’s UK debate, I’d give Tuesday’s to Tory leader Ruth Davidson. I’m not sure anyone won, or lost, last night – but unlike last week’s melee, we did learn

Podcast: what if Ed wins, the madness of Scottish politics and Catholic wars

Ed Miliband could still win the general election, but what would happen next? On the latest View from 22 podcast, The Telegraph’s Dan Hodges discusses this week’s Spectator cover feature on what to expect from a Miliband premiership with George Eaton of the New Statesman. Would Miliband manage to take his lofty ideas about reshaping capitalism into No.10? Or would he be more pragmatic in power? Like his mentor Gordon Brown, could Miliband’s indecisiveness turn out to be a fatal flaw? James Forsyth and Alex Massie also discuss the current madness of Scottish politics. As we saw during the two Scottish leaders’ debates, it appears there is nothing that can dent the SNP’s popularity — even a leaked memo about Nicola Sturgeon’s desire to keep David Cameron in No.10 has been

Ed dawn

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/edcouldstillwin/media.mp3″ title=”Dan Hodges and George Eaton discuss what will happen if Ed wins” startat=40] Listen [/audioplayer]What if Ed Miliband wins? His victory is still seen, especially by those on the right, as a near-impossibility — an event so improbable as to defy the laws of political gravity. But then again, we’re three weeks away from the general election and still the Conservatives still haven’t managed to establish a convincing lead. He might yet defy the bookies. And what then? Imagine it’s the morning of Friday 8 May. Prime Minister Miliband has just crossed the threshold of Downing Street, the famous door swinging shut behind him. What happens next? One

Ashcroft marginal polls show Tory-Labour races remain tight — and Ukip is falling behind

The Tory-Labour battleground remains very close. Lord Ashcroft has returned to ten competitive marginal seats in his latest round of polling and has found swings to Labour, ranging from 0.5 per cent to four per cent. According to his latest polls, the Conservatives are set to hold onto five of these marginals: Blackpool North & Cleveleys, Gloucester, Kingswood, Pendle and Loughborough — the last represented by Education Secretary Nicky Morgan. Use the interactive chart above to see the latest polls. In the other five marginals, Pudsey is a tie between the two parties — as it was in November last year — while Labour is set to take Harrow East,

James Forsyth

The referendum is still defining Scottish politics

One of the most striking things about Scotland is how the referendum still dominates politics here. I’ve seen more Yes posters and stickers than I’ve seen posters for any political party. The referendum also goes a long way to explaining the SNP surge. In Edinburgh East, for instance, 17 thousand people voted Labour in 2010, giving the party a nine thousand majority. Considering that the seat has been Labour since 1935, you’d expect that to be enough for the party to hold on easily. But as the SNP candidate for the seat Tommy Sheppard pointed out to me, 27 thousand people in this seat voted Yes last autumn. If he

Toby Young

Ed Miliband couldn’t care less about education reform

The editor of The Spectator isn’t the only person thinking about the prospect of Ed Miliband becoming the next Prime Minister. Eighty educationalists have signed a letter in the Daily Mail today warning about the danger of a future Labour government curtailing academy freedoms. They’re concerned about Ed Miliband’s pledge that Labour would reintroduce ‘a proper local authority framework for all schools’ – which sounds a lot like placing all taxpayer-funded schools back under local authority control. The letter-writers flag up two freedoms they are particularly concerned about: the freedom that academies and free schools have to set their own pay and conditions and the freedom they have over the curriculum.

Steerpike

Labour ignore the yellow peril

Labour have not had much luck in this campaign when it comes to buses. Leaving aside the brouhaha over the sexist ‘pink van‘, the travelling Miliband entourage and press pack were lucky not to get towed in Warwick today. The official Labour campaign bus spent the entirety of Ed Miliband’s speech on a double yellow.