Liberal democrats

Cameron, May and Javid are trying to prove the Tories are the natural party of government

The Tories are already putting some clear blue water between the coalition and the present majority government. Firstly, the new Business Secretary Sajid Javid has promised new tougher strike laws — ensuring that a minimum turn out of 50 per cent turnout is required for all strikes, while 40 per cent of all members will need to back a strike affecting essential public services. The TUC’s Frances O’Grady has already hit back, arguing the new rules will make ‘legal strikes close to impossible’. Secondly, Theresa May and David Cameron are promising to tackle our ‘passively tolerant society’. In the Queen’s Speech, due on May 27, the Tories will introduce a new counter extremism

Liberal Democrats face soaring fines for failing to win enough votes

Oh dear. Not only have the Liberal Democrats only won eight seats so far compared to the 56 taken in 2010, many candidates face losing their deposit. If a candidate fails to win five per cent of the vote in their desired constituency then they are subject to a £500 fine. Unfortunately the Liberal Democrats have had many candidates do exactly that. So much so that the Twitter account LibDem Deposits has been set up just to keep a tally of their fines: It started off modestly: Then spiralled: The account is now reporting that the current total of fines is an enormous £157,000. This would mean that out of the 631 Liberal Democrat candidates that

Has Ed Miliband got something clever up his sleeve?

How will Ed Miliband manage tomorrow if Labour does end up the second largest party but with a viable ‘anti-Tory alliance’ in the House of Commons? The Tories are trying to craft a narrative that such a government would be illegitimate, and David Cameron will give a statement early on Friday. But there is a theory developing among some Tories who rate Miliband’s strategic skills that he could be about to produce his own clever game-changer too. He could be about to offer a significant devolution of powers to the regions, a huge transfer of power to Scotland and Wales, the elected Senate of the Nations and Regions that was

Election night: the ten ‘Portillo moments’ to watch out for

Election night is going to be a long affair but some excitement will ensue if any prominent politicians lose their seats — unexpectedly or otherwise. There is likely to be at least one ‘Portillo moment‘ — akin to the the 1997 election night when then-Tory MP Michael Portillo lost his seat and signalled that the Tories were on course to be out of power for 13 years. In chronological order, here are the big name politicians to watch out for tomorrow morning: 1. Douglas Alexander in Paisley and Renfrewshire South Expected declaration time: 3:00am Region: Scotland Majority: 16,614 MP in 2010: Douglas Alexander – Labour 2010 result: Lab 60%, SNP 18%, Con 10%, Lib Dem 10%

‘Mili-what? Who’s he?’

‘Are all of these questions about politics love — because I’m really not political?’ Oh dear. I’ve just lost another respondent two minutes into a three-minute survey and the chances of achieving my hourly target, and therefore continuing my employment in pre-election polling, are receding fast. Perhaps she didn’t hear my scripted preamble: ‘Could you spare a few minutes to take part in a survey on the upcoming general election?’ What sort of questions did she think I’d ask? ‘Do you think SamCam pulled off the midi-skirt?’ At least I can take pleasure in hearing a colleague struggle a few booths down. ‘No, not electrics madam, election.’ And then, a

Nick Clegg got coalition wrong. Tomorrow, he’ll pay the price

It’s hard not to feel a bit sorry for Nick Clegg. He’s a decent man who took a tough decision to put his party into coalition with the Conservatives, and lost half of his support as a result. Tomorrow, his party will be hammered. His great miscalculation was imagining that in England the Lib Dems would emerge with a list of achievements voters would applaud – as they did in the 2003 Holyrood elections when, after four years of coalition, the Lib Dems overtook the Scottish Conservatives to become the third-largest party. On the radio the other day Clegg vainly paraded his boast list, his own version of Kelly Clarkson’s Because

James Forsyth

Tory backbenchers increasingly reconciled to another coalition

Speaking to various senior Conservative backbenchers in the past 24 hours, I’ve been struck by how much support there is for the formation of another coalition. There is a recognition that if the Tories have around 290 seats on Friday morning—which is at the optimistic end of the election projections, it is simply not realistic for them to try and run any kind of minority government. The view among those I have spoken to is that Cameron should be given a decent amount of flexibility to negotiate a deal with the Liberal Democrats as that is the most likely way for the Tories to be able to begin to put

Campaign-kick off: 24 hours to go

Finally, after six weeks of campaigning, endless opinion polls and the semi-TV debates, the final day of the 2015 general election campaign is upon us. David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will be dashing all over the country to make their final plea to voters, while rumours are beginning to spill out about the conditions for any coalitions. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. Neck and neck Before the election campaign kicked off properly at the end of March, a poll of polls put Labour on 34 per cent and the Tories on 33 per

Election podcast special: 48 hours to go

In today’s election special podcast, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss David Cameron’s election rally with Boris Johnson in Hendon and whether the Mayor of London has been underused during the campaign. We also look at how David Cameron has proven, yet again, to be the essay crisis Prime Minister — showing his passion just in time for polling day. Plus, we discuss how Ed Miliband has surpassed all expectations during the campaign. You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Steerpike

Cameron wins 81 seat majority in the (junior) General Election

At last, David Cameron has won an election. First News, a weekly newspaper for school children, organised a national Junior General Election and surprisingly the PM has romped home with 40 per cent of the vote. The Greens beat both Clegg and Farage, and Miliband managed just 22 per cent of the vote. Running these numbers through the BBC’s election seat calculator, it would give Cameron 407 seats and a majority of 81. Here are the results in full: David Cameron, Conservative: 40 per cent Ed Miliband, Labour: 22 per cent Natalie Bennett, Green: 18 per cent Nick Clegg, Lib Dem: 9 per cent Nigel Farage, UKIP: 6 per cent Nicola Sturgeon, SNP: 4

Coffee Shots: SNP voter trolls the Secretary of State for Scotland

Although one recent poll suggested that the SNP will win every seat in Scotland, there are still a few Liberal Democrat MPs who hope to retain their seats come Thursday. However, although Alistair Carmichael, the Secretary of State for Scotland and Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland, winning his seat in 2010 by a majority of nearly 10,000 votes, he ought to be more alert to the dangers of the SNP. On a recent train journey, one SNP voter took a photo of herself posing with her ballot paper while Carmichael dozed off in the background: Mr S suspects that Carmichael won’t be getting much sleep now until polling day.

Steerpike

Michael Gove: Tories could still work with the Lib Dems

The Tories were less than pleased last week when Danny Alexander revealed confidential communications between the coalition partners regarding child benefit to a paper, as part of an election campaign ambush. The disclosure brought back up old tensions in the coalition, with Michael Gove claiming that it simply served as a reminder of the party’s true colours. ‘I don’t think it took the leak from Danny Alexander to make us aware of what the Liberal Democrats are really like,’ he told Mr S. Still, with no majority in sight for the Tories ahead of polling day, the party are in a forgiving mood with regards to working with the party in the future . ‘We are prepared, always,

Portrait of the week | 30 April 2015

Home The British economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, the slowest quarterly growth for two years. The Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out many absurdities in party election promises, noting that most people would see tax and benefit changes that reduced their income; it said that the Conservative and Liberal Democrat plan to increase the personal allowance to £12,500 would not help the 44 per cent of people who now pay no tax, that Labour’s promised 10p tax band would be ‘worth a princely 50 pence a week to most income-tax payers’ and that it could not be sure whether the reintroduction of a

The Lib Dems struggle to replace old political blood with new

The Liberal Democrat resilience in countless marginal seats has confounded many commentators. While perhaps winning half the number of votes as Ukip nationwide, it is far from inconceivable that they will win five to ten times the number of seats. Take Sutton & Cheam, for instance, where despite having a majority of just 1,608 votes, Paul Berstow seems all but certain to retain his seat. This has, quite correctly, been attributed to the personal following of Lib Dem incumbents – and their ability to build an often robust local campaigning machine around their cult of personality. People of all sides of the political spectrum flock to banners, irrespective of their underlying party

Isabel Hardman

A (partial) defence of the spin room

Tonight’s ‘Question Time’-style TV debates will be followed by what has become probably the most hated aspect of this rather uninspiring general election campaign: the spin room. This spectacle of journalists interviewing journalists as they listen to frontbenchers from all the parties parroting lines about how their leader was the best (or, in the Tory case, how well Nicola Sturgeon has been doing) is odd enough inside the room, let alone for those watching at home. The way the politicians spinning talk is even less natural than usual: it’s like a Westminster version of Made In Chelsea, stuffed with people acting at being actors. And yet there is a reason

Miriam González Durántez breaks political protocol at fashion event

After Nick Clegg enjoyed a night out at the pub earlier this month, it only seems fair that his wife Miriam González Durántez should also be allowed to let off some steam. So Mr S was glad to see that she was a guest at last night’s WIE (Women: Inspiration & Enterprise) Awards Gala at Goldsmiths’ Hall. Conscious that her decision to attend a glitzy bash so close to polling day might raise eyebrows, Miriam explained in her speech that she was breaking election etiquette and that Clegg’s political advisors would prefer her to be at home: ‘Unfortunately General Elections are not seen by political advisers as good times for wives of political leaders

Do Labour voters hate the SNP enough to save the Lib Dems?

For someone who might be about to lose her seat, Jo Swinson seems very perky as she walks the streets of Bishopbriggs in her constituency. The Lib Dem, who is standing for re-election in East Dunbartonshire in Scotland, is busy trying to persuade people who have received their postal votes this week to back her. The weather is sunny and warm and the Business and Equalities Minister cheerful, but the outlook isn’t quite so good when you take a glance at the numbers. A poll by Lord Ashcroft last week put the SNP on 40 per cent, with Swinson trailing behind on 29 per cent. That’s a 19.5 per cent

Steerpike

Coffee Shots: Liberal Democrats struggle with the small print

As the Liberal Democrats fight for survival in the general election, word reaches Mr S that things in the yellow camp may be even more dire than first thought. Mr S received this Lib Dem leaflet from one of his sources, the small print of which seems totally incomprehensible. Surely things can’t be so bad that the party can no longer afford spaces between words? As you can see, it’s pretty hard to read: Even when you get closer: And closer: Mr S is getting election fatigue just looking at it. Maybe it’s just best not to read the small print.

The polls could decide the fate of the Lib Dems

A Lib Dem West Country MP told me at the start of the year that he thought his party would keep his seat if the Tories were broadly ahead in the national polls on polling day but lose it if they were level or behind. His thinking was that if it looked like Cameron was going to continue as Prime Minister his constituents would both feel it was safe to vote for a local champion and would want some protection against the Tories cutting public services too far. But if the Tories were behind, he feared that these swing voters would feel that they had to vote Tory to try

Steerpike

Image from Islington: Lib Dems troll Emily Thornberry

It’s St George’s Day today, and presumably Labour’s Emily Thornberry is out looking for ‘amazing’ houses draped in English flags. To help her out (in a way), her Lib Dem rival in Islington Terry Stacy has decided to put this about as his election address: Mr Steerpike is very keen for any other election candidates showing off quite how comfortable they are with flags.