Liberal democrats

Will Nick Clegg hold onto his Sheffield Hallam seat next year? No, according to internal Lib Dem polling which has been leaked to the Guardian. ICM have now released the full tables, which outline the fight Clegg and the Lib Dems face in 2015. It’s worth noting sample sizes are small — 500 were polled in each seat compared to 1,000 in Ashcroft survey this weekend. But here are the most important details: While Clegg held onto his seat comfortably with 53 per cent of the vote in 2010, the ICM snapshot suggests that if there was a general election tomorrow, Clegg would come third behind Labour and the Tories: [datawrapper

Vince Cable, definitely not in the Team Nick camp, has finally broken his silence from a trade visit in China to defend his colleague. In the past few minutes the Business Secretary has released this statement: ‘These were exceptionally disappointing results for the party. Many hard working Liberal Democrats, who gave this fight everything they had and then lost their seats, are feeling frustrated and disheartened and we all understand that. ‘Nick did a bold thing in standing up to the eurosceptic wave which has engulfed much of continental Europe. We are the only party to have taken that on and he personally deserves tremendous credit for that. There is

This weekend was always going to be an unpleasant one for Nick Clegg. The delay between the council results on Friday and tonight’s European Election count meant that the pain was going to be drawn out for the Liberal Democrats, giving activists plenty of time to vent their anger at the leadership. So far, the anti-Clegg mutterings have been fairly limited. There are no big beasts calling for him to go. This could change after tonight’s results, especially if the Lib Dems come behind the Greens. But I suspect that three things will keep Clegg safe. 1). He’s made very clear he won’t go without a fight. Trying to force

Only one party can be happy with the local elections results so far, Ukip. Nigel Farage’s party has so far added 86 councilors to its tally and these results suggest that Sunday, when the European Election votes are counted, should be a good night for the party. Labour’s results have been mixed to disappointing. Their best news of the night was picking up Hammersmith and Fulham off the Tories. Knocking over one of the Tories’ flagship councils will delight Labour. But Hammersmith is a region where the demographics have been running against the Tories, look at how Shaun Bailey failed to win the parliamentary seat last time. Labour has also

Now the waiting begins. If you’re interested in the results of around 50 councils which expect to declare overnight, here they are: Basildon, Basingstoke & Deane, Bexley, Birmingham, Bolton, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Bristol, Cambridge, Cannock Chase, Carlisle, Castle Point, Colchester, Coventry, Croydon, Daventry, Derby, Eastleigh, Enfield, Fareham, Gloucester, Gosport, Hammersmith & Fulham, Haringey, Harlow, Hartlepool, Hastings, Havant, Hertsmere, Ipswich, Kingston-upon-Hull, Kingston-upon-Thames, Lincoln, Liverpool, Maidstone, Merton, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Peterborough, Portsmouth, Purbeck Redbridge, Richmond-upon-Thames, Rochdale, Rochford, Rotherham, Runnymede, Rushmoor, Sandwell, South Tyneside, Southampton, Southend-on-Sea, Stevenage, Stratford-on-Avon, Sunderland, Sutton, Swindon, Tameside, Tamworth, Tandridge, Thurrock, Walsall, Wandsworth, Welwyn Hatfield, Wigan, Worcester. Here are some particularly interesting results to look out for: Kingston-upon-Thames: The Conservatives hope

I am beginning to think that Dominic Cummings has driven Nick Clegg round the bend. The Lib Dem leader should want this row over universal free school meals to go away; it is a massive distraction with elections only six days away. But he can’t help himself from keeping it going. So, today we have a joint Gove Laws op-ed in The Times declaring that they are not at loggerheads over the policy. This is accompanied by a news story which reveals that Clegg demanded that Gove write the piece. The piece also reveals, rather unhelpfully, that some schools are not on track to deliver the policy in time for

What will become of the other big coalition row that’s burning away alongside free schools? David Cameron was asked today about the plans to introduce mandatory sentences for repeat knife offences, and made some very supportive noises again, which the Tories signed up to Nick de Bois’ amendment to the Criminal Justice and Courts Bill think is a sign that they’ve made the right decision. He suggested that Nick Clegg could change his mind about it – and some have taken this as a sign that there’s a compromise on the cards. The Conservatives tell me they are ‘looking carefully’ at de Bois’ amendments, but the Lib Dems say they

David Axelrod jets into London this week for the first time since signing up to help Labour in 2015. Axelrod, who friends admit is no expert on UK politics, will have two days to try and get his head round the shape of the next election campaign. This trip will mark the first time that Axelrod and Miliband have met face to face. Up to now, they have only spoken on the telephone. Axelrod will also address a specially convened meeting of the shadow Cabinet. There’s no doubt that having the man who helped Obama get to the White House in town will be a boost to Labour morale. But

The Coalition has been much more of a success than anyone could have predicted when it formed in 2010. It hasn’t just held together for spending cuts, but has passed important reforms to welfare and education. It’s important to repeat that now, when the partnership is growing increasingly tired and snappy. The parties spent yesterday pecking at one another over whether or not to introduce tougher mandatory sentences for repeat knife offences. They won’t produce a Queen’s Speech bursting with legislative excitements, either. But one of the things that this Coalition has shown us is that it’s not just the policy red lines that make a difference to whether a

One of the interesting things I learned from a recent Lord Ashcroft poll was the startling fact that three times as many people identify themselves as Labour voters, tribally, as Tories (around 30 per cent versus 10), despite the two parties having roughly similar base support in general elections. This says something about the different way the two groups think; loyalty to the Labour Party runs deep and is emotional, while for Conservative voters the party is pretty much a pragmatic organisation to keep even worse politicians from running the country. I’m not sure which group will suffer more in the long term from the current crisis of party politics;

Danny Alexander’s comments to the BBC that, in the event of another hung parliament, the Lib Dems wouldn’t make a confidence and supply deal with either the Tories or Labour, is the clearest statement yet of the leadership’s position. The Clegg circle believes that a second term in government is crucial to consolidating the changes that he made to the party, to making the Liberal Democrats think like a party of government. Not everyone in the party is so keen on a second coalition. One influential Lib Dem MP told me a few months back that he thought a post 2015 coalition with either party would be a disaster for

All three main parties have now hired foreign advisers to help run their general election campaigns. These foreign advisers have one thing in common: they’re all from the English speaking world. Despite our membership of the European Union, when it comes to winning elections, all our political parties think there is more to learn from other English speaking countries than France or Italy. Indeed, it is hard to imagine any of them putting a European in charge of their campaign. But they are all delighted to have their American, Australian and South African campaign hands. Partly, this is a language thing. But, I think, it also goes deeper than that.

Of the three main parties, none is clearer about how they intend to fight the next election than the Liberal Democrats. Their message will be that they’ll make the Tories be fair and Labour economically responsible. Their ground game will fight for every inch in the seats they hold but effectively withdraw from the rest of the country. I suspect that this strategy will yield the Liberal Democrats around 40 seats and, if there’s another hung parliament, the balance of power again. But this near-term strategic certainty obscures a bigger question, what are the Liberal Democrats for? This is a question that Jeremy Browne, the former Lib Dem minister, is

Conviction politics is back. The two men making the political weather at the moment, Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage, both serve their politics neat. They have no interest in any ‘third way’. They stand for big, simple, defining ideas. They are both far closer to success than the establishment ever imagined they would be. Now the Liberal Democrat Jeremy Browne is trying to apply this outsiders’ formula to mainstream politics. Sacked as a minister six months ago by Nick Clegg, he is setting out the case for pure, unadulterated liberalism. His new book, published this week, is a deliberately bracing read. It is full of dire warnings about what will