Liberal democrats

By-elections are notoriously hard to call. But everyone who comes back from Eastleigh says the same thing, UKIP are the party with forward momentum. This morning’s Populus poll bears that out. They are in third place with 21 per cent, with the Tories second on 28 and the Lib Dems ahead with 33. But, as the indispensable UK Polling Report points out, if you don’t reallocate some of the undecides to the party they voted for last time, UKIP are doing even better. The numbers then are UKIP 25%, Tories 26% and Lib Dems 31%. As I said in the magazine this week, UKIP are picking up support from all

The good news for Nick Clegg—and the bad news for David Cameron—is that the Liberal Democrats are racing certainties to hold Eastleigh in the by-election next Thursday. As I say in the magazine this week, the Liberal Democrats’ base in the constituency – they hold every ward in the seat – has given them an insuperable advantage. This victory means that Clegg will be spared the Spring conference crisis that would have followed a defeat there; for if the Lib Dems could lose Eastleigh where they are so well dug in, they could lose anywhere. Cameron, by contrast, will have to deal with an intensely restless party. The Tories’ failure

Labour’s current plan to embarrass the Lib Dems over its clothes-stealing mansion tax policy is an Opposition Day debate in the Commons. But, in a mark of how serious the party is to score a political point on this matter, I understand that it is also considering tabling an amendment involving a mansion tax to the Finance Bill after the Budget. Labour sources tell me that this threat will be enacted if the government doesn’t allocate time for an Opposition Day debate before the Budget. A source says: ‘We want to be clear that we are serious about this. This is a test for the Lib Dems to see if

One of the key strands of the Conservative campaign in Eastleigh is trust: not just because campaigners can remind voters about Chris Huhne, but thanks to a contrast they can draw between Maria Hutchings and Lib Dem candidate Mike Thornton. The party’s latest poster underlines this: it accuses the Lib Dems of ‘facing both ways on development’ and contrasts quotes from Thornton on protecting green spaces and his voting record. The bottom of the poster says: ‘Maria Hutchings has consistently campaigned with local residents against these developments.’ I’ve already grumbled about how silly it is for the two Coalition parties to be scrapping not just over agreed Coalition policy but

It took a while for Nick Clegg to confirm that he would stay with his party to 2015, but today his colleague Ed Davey did him a favour (or perhaps not) and confirmed on his behalf that Clegg would stay not just through the next election, but would lead his party into the 2020 election. He told Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics: ‘I’m really very supportive of what Nick has been doing, I think he’s the best leader we’ve ever had and I think he’s going to lead the party not just into the next election but into the one after that.’ Ed Davey is obviously trying to fend

David Ward, Liberal Democrat MP for Bradford East, is unhappy that his recent comments about The Jews attracted such widespread criticism. You see: “There is a huge operation out there, a machine almost, which is designed to protect the state of Israel from criticism. And that comes into play very, very quickly and focuses intensely on anyone who’s seen to criticise the state of Israel. And so I end up looking at what happened to me, whether I should use this word, whether I should use that word – and that is winning, for them. Because what I want to talk about is the fundamental question of how can they do

The committee of MPs considering the Justice and Security Bill was sitting today, but outside the group of loyal MPs scrutinising the Bill line by line, moves are still afoot from those who oppose part II, which enables secret court hearings. I understand that there is now a group of Conservative MPs keen to support further amendments being considered by Andrew Tyrie, which I covered on Coffee House last week, including Douglas Carswell and Peter Bone. Tyrie says: ‘The Joint Committee on Human Rights are right to call for more judicial discretion, so-called equality of arms and a much narrower definition of “sensitive” information.  In additional it’s crucial that the Bill

David Ward, a Liberal Democrat MP, is in trouble with his party bosses. He chose Holocaust Remembrance Day to indulge in a bit of anti-semitism, suggesting that the very Jews who suffered under the Nazis in death camps were now meting out the same treatment to the poor old Palestinians. I am not sure why he is in the doghouse: this sort of reflexive Jew-baiting lies just below the surface of most of the supposedly principled anti-Israeli posturing among his party colleagues. Not least those who feel the need to appease vast swathes of Muslim voters – Ward’s constituency is Bradford East. It’s good to get it out in the

Nick Clegg was apparently just being self-critical in his House magazine interview when he said the Coalition hadn’t got it right from the beginning on infrastructure. Those close to the Deputy Prime Minister are insisting that though speaking out on economic policy remains unusual in the Coalition, he was simply pointing out what has actually happened, with the government now offering more on capital spending. But at this morning’s lobby briefing, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman didn’t exactly take that same tone. ‘The Prime Minister’s view is that it was the right decision to have made,’ he said, pointing to increases in infrastructure spending in the last two autumn statements.

The GDP figures for the final quarter of 2013 are out tomorrow morning, and with them will come the usual round of commentary from government and opposition. They’re not expected to be good: Citi predicts that the ONS’s first estimate will show a contraction of 0.1 per cent in Q4. So perhaps that’s why Nick Clegg decided to get in early and taken a shot at his own government’s economic policy this evening. Speaking to Paul Waugh and Sam Macrory in the House magazine, the Deputy Prime Minister had the following to say: ‘If I’m going to be self-critical, there was this reduction in capital spending when we came into

I gave a talk to the Hornsey and Wood Green Labour Party last night. If you don’t know the area, the constituency covers Highgate, Muswell Hill and Crouch End: leafy north London villages, where the metropolitan middle class go, if not to die, then at least to produce babies. There are pockets of high unemployment and council housing, but the seat is generally prosperous and in places very prosperous. Its fortunes illustrate how the political parties have attended to the needs of the urban bourgeoisie. The Conservatives are nowhere now. As late as 1992, Hornsey and Wood Green was a Tory seat. This year they closed their local office and

Round two of the row over rises in benefit payments is on the way, with Lib Dems and opposition parties tabling a series of amendments to the government’s legislation. I have learned that Lib Dem Andrew George has already laid his proposals for changing the welfare uprating bill, which will return to the House of Commons for the report stage and third reading next Monday. George’s amendments are backed by four other Lib Dem MPs: and two of them were neither rebels nor abstainers at last week’s second reading vote. While Charles Kennedy and John Leech abstained and rebelled respectively on the second reading, Dan Rogerson was loyal, and Alan

Trying out new career options on LBC this morning, Nick Clegg inadvertently illustrated several serious political truths. A caller claimed to have been a member of the ‘Liberal Democrat’ party – indeed an ex county-councillor in Surrey.  But he said that he had recently ripped up his party membership card.  Happily, however, he proceeded to read from it. Before this morning I had never heard anyone recite this hilarious document.  But if the caller was telling the truth the card says: ‘The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community in