YouGov have the Lib Dems on top
Tonight’s YouGov tracker has the Lib Dems on 33 percent (up 4), the Tories on 32 percent (down 1) and Labour on 26 percent (down 4). So the topsy-turviness continues – but for how long?
Liberal democrats
Sunday
Overseas aid could be a Tory winner in Con-Lib fights
As the Conservatives start looking at areas where the Liberal Democrats are weak, or where differences can be drawn between the parties, they are honing in on international development. In the Independent on Sunday, David Cameron and anti-poverty star Jeffrey Sachs lay out the party’s plans if they win power. It includes a commitment to spending 0.7 of GDP on overseas aid, an emphasis “on greater transparency, ensuring the money reaches the people who need it most” and “action on women” as a conduit to development. The op-ed is clearly inspired by the work of Tory aid spokesman, Andrew Mitchell, who has written a piece for ConservativeHome this evening. The
How Cameron can stem the Lib Dem tide
If the Tories are to beat back this Lib Dem surge, there are three things they need to do. First, they need to establish Cameron as the insurgent, anti-establishment candidate. It might seem odd to urge the leader of the Conservative party to be the anti-establishment cadidate, but the establishment in this country is now essentially soft-left. Just look at how senior police chiefs are threatenting to resign over Cameron’s plans for elected police commissioners who would be accountable to the public and set the priorities of the local force (another transformative Tory policy that Cameron didn’t mention during the debate) Cameron needs to run against these people. He should
Cameron has a policy agenda to change Britain – he should tell us about it
Cameron has not, alas, broken free of the never-ending opinion poll bungee jump which is the story of his leadership of the Conservative Party. Cleggmania is a bubble – but the thing about bubbles is that one can never quite tell when they will burst. The Tories, who have lost the most votes due to this bubble, will have their needles out. But in my News of the World column today I suggest they focus on policy because they do have hard ideas that could radically change Britain. Cameron missed a trick by failing to mention his single best policy, Gove’s school reform, last week. On immigration, his plan for reducing it
Is* the Mail on Sunday Nick Clegg’s Recruiting Sergeant?
Is the Mail on Sunday’s back-bench trying to persuade voters to think about endorsing the Liberal Democrats? I assume so, otherwise you’d have to wonder what they meant by writing this headline for the dead tree edition of this story: “His wife is Spanish, his mother Dutch, his father half-Russian and his spin doctor German. Is there ANYTHING British about Lib Dem leader?” I mean, my explanation is the only one that makes sense, right? *No. But it might as well be with this kind of tripe.
Brown’s mindset on full display
Labour high command will be very satisfied with Brown’s performance on Marr this morning. There was far less of the tetchiness that we usually see from Brown in interviews and by being invited to talk about the ash cloud and the government’s response to it at the beginning, Brown was able to assume some of the aura of his office as Prime Minister. The interview saw the debut of Brown’s latest rewriting of history. Apparently he has always been for bringing in the liberals (exact quote to follow when the BBC release the transcript) and a ‘progressive consensus’. This will come as a shock to anyone who has read Paddy
Mandelson contra Cameron
So far as the Tories are concerned, Peter Mandelson is the political equivalent of an itch that you can’t scratch: irritating, elusive and impossible to ignore. And he’s at it again today, with an article in the Independent on Sunday chiding the Tories’ over their Big Society agenda. It’s not the “agenda of abandoment” attack that Mandelson made a few days ago. But, rather, a return to the “cross-dressing” territory of last year. As Mandelson puts it, “[Cameron’s] tightly knit group of associates has simply pinched a few ideas from our campaign manual, rather than fundamentally reforming the party to make it fit for office.” And he even tries
Saturday
The Enthusiasm Gap
As James says, we’re going to need to wait a few days before we can be sure if the Lib Dem surge has legs but, yes, right now something is happening. The headline figures for the three polls we’ve seen since Clegg’s coming-out party are: ComRes: Con: 31 (-4) Lab: 27 (-2) Lib: 29 (+8) ICM: Con: 34 (-3) Lab: 29 (-2) Lib: 27 (+7) YouGov: Con: 33 (-4) Lab: 28 (-3) Lib: 30 (+8) That’s all striking enough but so too is this finding from the Independent on Sunday’s ComRes poll: Only 53% of self-proclaimed Labour voters say their preferred election outcome is a Labour majority. By contrast 67%
The impediment to a Lib-Lab coalition
Certainly, the Lib Dems’ current joy will prove transient; but for the first time since 1983 this is a three party race. As Pete notes, Labour see Nick Clegg as the surest means to keep the Tories out of office. Even before the debate, the normally cerebral Andrew Adonis was penning passionate articles appealing to Lib Dem support. Since the debate, the love-bombing campaign has become indiscriminate . Love isn’t all you need. Labour will need nous to make the most of the opportunity Clegg has presented. Over at Spectator Live, Will Straw argues that Labour should ‘play the long game’ by being obsequious whilst airing the few differences
Nick Clegg: the Hans-Dietrich Genscher of Britain
Nick Clegg has always said that if no party can command a majority in parliament, he will support the party voters have been seen to support. It was assumed that if the Tories were the biggest party – but a few members short of an outright majority – he would back them. But if the YouGov poll comes true, on a uniform swing Labour will be the largest party and the Liberal Democrats still the third largest party in parliament but with 90-odd seats. With Labour out front, Clegg’s logic would suggest he would back a Labour-led government. But Clegg’s poor relationship with Gordon Brown is well known and with
Responding to the Lib Dem surge
We’ve had the insta-polls and that eyectaching YouGov poll, and now we get the political reaction to Thursday’s TV debate. Interviewed in the Times, Alan Johnson plays up what Labour and the Lib Dems have “in common,” and opens the door on a potential coalition. While, in the Telegraph, David Cameron sets about Lib Dems policies – attacking, for instance, the “flimsy backing” to their plan for making the first £10,000 of income tax-free These different responses to the Lib Dem surge are stiking, if predictable. Labour see Clegg as an opportunity: an opportunity to whitewash Brown’s mechanical performance in the TV debate, and to keep the Tories out of
Friday
A gentle fightback
The consensus is that David Cameron made a mess of last night’s TV debate. And whilst he wasn’t bad, he certainly wasn’t good, especially to watch. In a post over at Cappuccino Culture, I make the point that Cameron was the most static and soulless feature of a static and soulless piece of television. Undoubtedly the Tories’ greatest presentational asset, his subdued performance is inexplicable. Whilst there is no cause for panic the Tories are rightly trying to regain the initiative. Gary Barlow’s appearance with Cameron at a school this morning didn’t relight Dave’s, or anyone else’s, fire. But Paul Waugh reports that the Tories are beginning to point out
The case for Nick Clegg
Ok, this won’t be one of my more popular opinions, but here goes … Nick Clegg is a Good Politician. And I don’t mean that in some Machiavellian sense – although, for all I know, that might be true. But, rather, that he’s got some decent ideas and ideals, and he presents them convincingly. This is why he deserved his victory in yesterday’s TV debate. It wasn’t the novelty factor, as Fraser claimed last night. It wasn’t even really his plague-on-both-your-houses positioning. No, last night was the culmination of two years in which – politically speaking – Clegg has kneaded and pulled his party into one which can stand, unashamed, on a
So what’s changed?
The question is: how much has really changed after last night? And the answer is hard to pin down. There are the plastic, surface changes, of course. Nick Clegg may now be recognised by more that one-third of the nation. His party will probably come under greater scrutiny from the media and his opponents. And the leaders’ debate is here to stay; a defining feature of this election which will become a standard feature of future contests. But what about deeper change? Well, I can understand the argument – made punchily by Gideon Rachman here – that this will increase the likelihood of a hung Parliament. That’s probably true. But
Thursday
The novelty of Clegg wins it for him
“I agree with Nick”, said Brown – and, as it turned out, so did most of the people YouGov polled. Brown lived right down to expectations, Cameron lived up to them (but didn’t exceed them). Few would have had any expectations from Clegg: what we political pundits know to be his clichés will be heard for the first time in many living rooms tonight. Each used tactics we’re familiar with. Brown opened his verbal machine gun, and sought to mow down the audience (they surrendered early on). David Cameron was fluent, articulate – as anyone who has followed politics had come to expect. But dazzling? No. He was subdued, seemed
Nick Clegg triumphs – and Cameron gains – in the first TV debate
So, who won? Well, hold your horses, dear CoffeeHouser. First, it’s worth noting that that was a good shade more compelling than I thought it would be. There were moments of heat, drama and political tension, of course. But there was also a sprinkling of light as well. I suspect anyone watching that would have picked up a working sense of the differences and similarities between the parties and their leaders. So, who won? Well, it depends what you mean by “won”. Nick Clegg certainly gained most from the evening. He was confident, coherent and had a strong line on almost every policy area, whether you agreed with those lines
Wednesday
The Lib Dems Lose a Voter
I had my first experience of frontline canvassing in a marginal at the weekend, when I visited my mum in the west country for a few days. She lives in a village in Nick Harvey’s North Devon constituency, a key target seat for the Tories. As a lifelong Labour and former activist she is torn between wasting her vote on the Labour candidate or voting tactically to keep out the Tory, Philip Milton. On Monday we found some Lib Dem canvassers on the doorstep and very cheery in that way Lib Dems have to be. They explained why it made no sense to vote Labour in North Devon and the
First poll since all the manifesto launches has the Tories ahead by 9
The figures from YouGov’s daily tracker have just been released, and they have the Tories on 41 percent (up 2), Labour on 32 (up 1), and the Lib Dems on 18 (down 2) – so a lead of 9 points for Cameron & Co. It’s worth noting, as well, that the Tory manifesto comes out on top in supplementary questions about which has the best policies, which is most honest and which is the best for the country. But, to my eye, the most striking result is that relatively low level of support for the Lib Dems. I imagine that they’d certainly hope for better as they continue peddling their
The Lib Dems & Labour: Battered Wife Syndrome?
Pete is right: the Liberal Democrats have their issue and it’s a good one. It makes sense for them to be more hawkish on the deficit and debt than either of the larger parties. That way they can present themselves as a sensible restraining influence in the event of a hung parliament that creates room for a coalition. But who should that coalition be with? Understandably Clegg and Cable will do their utmost to avoid answering that question; doubtless they will insist that it all depends on, you know, the result. Nevertheless, having reinvented themselves as Deficit Hawks it would, on the face of it, be absurd to the Lib
Follow the money | 14 April 2010
Looking at the papers this morning and watching the news last night, you realise what a benefit in the image stakes the Tory cash advantage gives them. The Tories can afford to hire out better venues than the other two parties. So while Labour launched their manifesto in hospital and the Lib Dems theirs at Bloomberg, the Tories used Battersea Power Station which provided them with much better visuals. We saw the same dynamic on the day the election was called: Labour’s event was in Downing Street, the Lib Dem one in an office and the Tory one on the terrace of County Hall looking over to Parliament The Mirror’s
