Libya

Cameron compromises, but Gaddafi might not

What a difference four months of air sorties make. Back in the early days of the Libya intervention, David Cameron was unequivocal when it came to Muammar Gaddafi remaining in the country: there was “no future” for the dictator within its borders, he said. But now, on top of comments by William Hague yesterday, the Prime Minister is thought to be softening his stance. As the Independent says today, he has decided that “the time has come to find a way out of the conflict and back a French proposal to allow Gaddafi to stay in the country as part of a negotiated settlement with rebel forces.” So, from no

Bomb blast near the Norwegian Prime Minister’s office

  A reportedly enormous bomb blast has shaken the PM’s office and the oil ministry in Oslo, the Norwegian police confirm. Reports have confirmed that the Norwegian Prime Minister is safe, but it’s not clear if he’s un-injured. Early reports suggested that this might be a gas explosion, but those were discounted because there is no mains gas supply in Oslo. Norway’s state broadcaster has confirmed that one person has died, with more than 8 injured. Fortunately, it is the height of Norway’s holiday season and there were few people about. The Norwegian police, however, warn that there are other casualties being treated. Details remain vague. There also appears to have been at least one

Some good news for Cameron?

In the midst of the fall-out from the phone hacking scandal comes some positive news for David Cameron: it appears that the Libyan rebels have won control of Brega, as most pro-Gaddafi troops retreated westward leaving around 150-200 loyalist fighters pinned down inside the town. If true, this is an important step towards the end of the Gaddafi regime: control of the oil-rich town is decisive for the Transitional National Council in Benghazi. It gives the rebels control over Libya’s eastern oil network, with access to more than 2m barrels of stored crude. And as Field Marshal Erwin Rommel said after his 1942 defeat at the hands of the British, “Neither

A Lovely Little Forgotten War

I’m glad the kinetic military action faux-war in Libya has gone so well. What’s that? Oh. Nevertheless, the war has this to be said for it: very few people seem to care one way or the other what happens in Libya. Granted, a churl could construe this as a good reason to have avoided getting involved in the (latest) Battle for Tripoli in the first place since the lack of interest in the conflict might be considered evidence that few vital interests  – for the United States or other NATO powers – are at stake. Nonetheless, alea iacta est and all that. So this is not a surprising development: “The

It was the Times wot won it

The latest issue of the Spectator features an article in qualified defence of Rupert Murdoch by William Shawcross, author of Murdoch: the Making of a Media Empire. In it, Shawcross writes: ‘Simon Jenkins, now a Guardian columnist, wrote before the current horrors that Murdoch ‘is the best thing that ever happened to the British media and they hate it.’ He was right. There are obviously many things wrong with Murdoch’s group, but without his epic victory over the print unions in the 1980s, there would be far fewer papers in Britain today. Murdoch means pluralism…Who else would have subsidised the huge losses of the Times, an excellent paper, for so

Might Gaddafi shunt Murdoch from the front pages?

Loyal Tories and government types are hoping that the media will soon move on from Murdoch. And the unusually heavy briefings emanating from George Osborne’s office last night were perhaps an attempt to shift the spotlight. But it will take a very gripping story to displace the phone hacking saga, especially if yet more has-been politicians shuffle back into public life to settle old scores with Murdoch. With the British press immersed in this tempestuous revenge drama and the whirl of hypocrisy that surrounds it, you wouldn’t guess that the euro has embarked on a 72 hour ordeal that may decide its future.   But, Rupert Murdoch’s mugshots could yet

Coffee House Interview: Andrew Mitchell

The government has stuck to its guns on overseas aid, promising to donate 0.7 per cent of our national income to other countries. In the Chancellor’s words, the government will not balance the books on backs of the world’s poorest people. In fact, as the criticism of the policy was at its highest the Prime Minster hosted a development summit in London and pledged £814m to help vaccinate children around the world against preventable diseases like pneumonia. On this issue, David Cameron does not seem for turning — however many letters he receives from the Defence Secretary.   But Liam Fox is not alone. A slew of recent polls show

Britain’s ill-defined counter-terror strategy exposed by America’s clarity

In a post over at the Staggers, defence and security expert Matt Cavanagh has compared and contrasted Barack Obama’s review of US counter-terrorism policy and the coalition’s recent update of the Prevent strategy, together with David Cameron’s professed ‘muscular liberalism’. Here are his insights: ‘The new (American) strategy contains a fairly detailed discussion of the Arab Spring, arguing for applying “targeted force on Al Qaida at a time when its ideology is under extreme pressure” from events in North Africa and the Middle East. By contrast, Britain’s revised Prevent strategy published three weeks ago, mentions these events only once – in a footnote, saying with characteristic bureaucratic obtuseness that it’s

Stopping Syria

Syria is still ablaze and the West seems unable to do douse the flames. And the risk of the Assad regime committing even greater violence will increase when the world’s media moves on. The reasons for Western impotence are manifold. First, for a long time Western leaders thought they could reason with Assad and therefore shied away from direct pressure. When they decided to act, they discovered that Assad is immune to European pressure because Syria does little trade with Europe. But, crucially, many Syrians are either loyal to the regime or fear triggering disintegration of the sort they have seen in neighbouring Lebanon and Iran. Finally, unlike Libya, the

Whitehall’s monolith faces reform

The Ministry of Defence is one of Whitehall’s largest and most dysfunctional departments; and it has long resisted effective reform. However, the parlous public finances dictate that reform take place. 8 per cent Budget cuts have to be delivered, while attempting to bring a £36bn black hole under control. Strategic retrenchment aside, efficiency is Liam Fox’s most potent weapon. To that end, Lord Levene has conducted an examination into departmental structures. Levene reports that the MoD’s maze of committees and sub-committees should be ripped-up to improve decision making and save money (and perhaps one of the ministry’s five ministers of state). ‘Sound financial management,’ he says ‘must be at the

Obama draws down his forces

It is as Matt Cavanagh predicted in his article for Coffee House, a few weeks ago. Barack Obama has decided to pull 10,000 of the 30,000 American “surge” troops out of Afghanistan this year. The remaining 20,000 will be outtathere by next summer. “Drawdown,” is the word that the US President used in his address last night, and it is happening at quite a pace. He presented this approach as a victory, suggesting that America has already achieved most of its goals in the country, and that “the tide of war is receding”. But there were one or two revealing notes of concession. “We will not try to make Afghanistan

Miliband’s myopia

The Prime Minister declared war at PMQs today. Not once but twice in the same sentence. ‘We’re at war in Libya and in Afghanistan,’ he said, in a throwaway footnote to some ritual noises about his ‘huge respect for our armed forces.’ Until this historic moment Britain had been engaged in peace-keeping and nation-building in Afghanistan, and in civilian protection and tyrant-bothering in Libya. But now it’s official. We’re mobilised on two fronts. Ed Miliband might have made more of this but he was too busy mentally preparing himself for this week’s shock ambush. This week’s shock ambush wasn’t quite as shocking as it might have been because it had

Alex Massie

You Do the Fighting, I’ll Do the Talking

You can imagine, I think, the outrage there’d have been had Tony Blair or, god forbid, Gordon Brown slapped down the service cheifs in this fashion. But there was the Prime Minister, exasperated by repeated complaints from the heads of the Army, Royal Navy and RAF that their resources are perilously close to snapping-point, telling the press he sometimes feels like saying “I tell you what – you do the fighting and I’ll do the talking.” As I say, the Tory press would have torn poor Gordon to shreds had he dared suggest any such thing. As it is, the Telegraph’s editorial yesterday was relatively restrained but still sided with

America and Britain turn their minds to the (fiscal) cost of war

Five-thousand, ten-thousand, or fifteen-thousand? That’s the question hanging in the air as Barack Obama prepares to clarify his withdrawal plan for Afghanistan this evening (or 0100 BST, if you’re minded to stay up). And it relates to how many of the 30,000 “surge” troops he will decide to release from the country this year. Washington’s money appears to be on 10,000, with half of them leaving this summer and half in December. But no-one outside of the President’s clique really yet knows. His final decision will say a fair amount about his intentions in Afghanistan, or at least about just how fast he wants to scram out of there. What’s

General outspokenness 

Recent wars have given rise to an unusual phenomenon in British civil-military relations: frequent, and often high-profile interventions, by serving or recently retired senior military officers in public debates. The latest has been the intervention of Britain’s chief naval officer, Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, who questioned the Navy’s ability to sustain the Libya campaign. Different prime ministers have dealt with this kind of outspokenness in different ways. Tony Blair was too weak to rein in Army chief Sir General Richard Dannatt, while Gordon Brown did not have the credibility, vis-à-vis the military, to do so either. David Cameron is different. He is at the height of his powers and determined

Alex Massie

Mars and Venus Revisited

Bruce Bartlett offers this chart (via Andrew) demonstrating that the United States is the only NATO country basically to have maintained it’s Cold War defence spending. Indeed, the US accounts for roughly 43% of global defence spending. Bartlett is not the only conservative who thinks domestic fiscal concerns – to say nothing of foreign policy matters – mean this kind of spending is unsustainable in the longer-term. No wonder Bob Gates lambasted european allies last week for their failure to spend more on defence (and especially on equipment). It’s a little unfortunate that Washington has consistently opposed the development of any independent european defence capability (though the wisdom and feasibility

Night of the generals

Last night, Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, the First Sea Lord, said that the aircraft carrier and the jump-jets that were scrapped in last year’s strategic defence review would have made the mission in Libya more effective, faster and cheaper. His comments follow Robert Gates’ assertion that Britain and France were struggling to lead the Libyan operation without substantial American support. It follows, in the mind of Stanhope at least, that defence cuts are impeding Britain’s military capability. This morning, Rear Admiral Parry (rtd) supported Stanhope. He told the Today programme: “I believe that he should have said that the Strategic Defence and Security Review was flawed – it defied strategic

Gates’ flawed valedictory

Robert Gates may be one of the best defence secretaries the United States has had in modern times. But in slamming European allies, like he did in Brussels on Friday, he was wrong. I have since long upbraided Europeans for under-investment in defence capabilities and making the wrong kind of investments. And defence expert Tomas Valasek published a fine pamphlet a few weeks ago, showing how European governments could do more for less, including by cooperating better. But they chose not to. This is not only foolish — as we live in an uncertain world where the ability to defend territory, trade, principles and people is paramount — but it

The end of Assad

After weeks of violence, the end of the Assad regime is now inevitable. It may take weeks, months or years, but the kind of damage that President Assad has inflicted on his domestic credibility and international standing cannot be repaired. The country’s two most populous cities, Aleppo and the capital Damascus have remained calm, but now protesters are defying the army. More than 300 members of the governing party have resigned and publicly condemned the crackdown. Crucially, the army’s loyalty is now in doubt. It is said some military units have refused to quell the protesters in Damascus. Even Syria’s long-time ally Turkey has been angered by the violence that

Sanctioning Gaddafi

Yesterday, Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt went to Chatham House to explain the UK’s Libya policy. It was a mildly painful experience. A particular gem: “Where we will end up nobody quite knows.” Well-spoken Lindsey Hilsum easily skewered UK policy, talking of the “indecent haste” of the ICC investigation and raising the ICC’s proposal to focus on a political deal. Sir Richard Dalton, an ex-mandarin, remarked that the “tone of optimism of the minister needs to be questioned further.” Burt got a lot better during the Q&A, but the event did not make for a particularly compelling argument for what the UK is doing, which is a shame, not least