Covid-19 business loans aren’t yet working

Last week’s report from the Office for Budget Responsibility made waves with its latest economic scenario, estimating a 35 per cent collapse in GDP in the second quarter of the year. But could even that dire prediction have been too optimistic? While the downturn was estimated by the OBR to be sharp, so too was the economy bounce-back, creating a V-shaped recovery and quick economic improvement. But internal Treasury assessments revealed by the Times today predict a U-shape recovery: a longer, more painful return to the status quo. In both scenarios, the millions made unemployed by the Covid-19 lockdown take longer to return to work than the economy does to technically