Moneyblog

Is there any point listening to the Bank of England’s growth forecasts?

The Bank of England today downgraded its forecast for UK GDP growth in 2019 from 1.7 per cent (a forecast it made in November) to 1.2 per cent. That is a chunky fall, but really, does anyone really care? As I have pointed out here many times before, the Bank’s record for forecasting is pretty lousy. The past year has been no exception. What has caught my eye is just how over-optimistic it was about Euro area growth a year ago. In its inflation forecast in February 2018 the Bank foresaw GDP growth in the Eurozone over 2018 running at 0.75 per cent per quarter. In the event, growth slowed dramatically

We need to change the outdated perception of flexible working

It’s been almost two decades since the UK Government first introduced the right to request flexible working for parents and carers. Since then, a lot has changed within our working environments; from the introduction of innovative technologies right through to our daily routine. All employees now have the legal right to request flexible working arrangements, yet since 2010 the percentage of the UK workforce adopting smarter ways of working has not risen above 27 per cent. Research has proved that flexible working arrangements contribute to a more balanced and fulfilled life and are a fantastic way to attract and motivate the best talent for employers. However, even though awareness surrounding

Will the rise of veganism turn us into a nation of current account switchers?

We’re meant to be a nation of pioneers. Back in the seventeenth century we set sail in search of exotic bounty. This was a time when most people still believed that the earth was flat, and if you sailed too far, you’d simply fall off the edge. But as we  set sail into even choppier Brexit waters, a riddle remains at the heart of the banking industry: Why aren’t more of us prepared to switch current accounts? Over the last few years it’s been hammered home that switching is easy. The Current Account Switch Guarantee, run by Bacs, claims to make it simple, reliable and stress-free. It’s even available for

Is it time for a Brexit recipe book?

What to do about the coming shortage of green groceries of which several supermarkets warned yet again this week if there is a no-deal Brexit on 29 March? I am just old enough to remember when fresh fruit and veg were in short supply at this time of year. People used to know how to store things to mitigate the problem: apples would be carefully laid out on straw-strewn shelves. We ate lots of root vegetables and not much greenery. If ever you saw a strawberry out of season it came, for some reason, from Israel. Perhaps it is time for a Brexit recipe book, like those comforting wartime rationing

Martin Vander Weyer

We should salute the very rich who stay onshore and pay their taxes

Paying tax — which many of us have been doing this week before HMRC’s 31 January deadline — is a citizen’s duty, not an act of virtue. But for the very rich it is also a choice, since with the help of expensive advisers they can duck it or pay very little of it by using complex avoidance devices and offshore havens. So if they stay onshore and pay up, we should salute their good citizenship — if only to encourage others like them who might lighten the tax burden for the rest of us. In that context I was pleased to see two of this column’s controversial heroes of

The Asda equal pay ruling that could wreck the UK’s labour market

I don’t know what it is like to work as a checkout assistant in Asda, still less in an Asda warehouse. But if I did work in a company’s shops and I learned that there were better-paid jobs available in its warehouses I am pretty sure I know what I would do: apply for a job in the latter. It wouldn’t occur to me to pick up the phone to a lawyer and claim I was a victim of discrimination. But then perhaps I am not suited to life in the age of grievance politics. Today, the Court of Appeal has ruled that Asda may be guilty of sexual discrimination

Ross Clark

Does the Left want us to return to the pre-industrial age? | 29 January 2019

However misguided their ideas, until recently it was safe to assume that those on the Left did at least want to improve the lot of humanity – they wanted the global population to enjoy better health, a better diet and longer lives. They just disagreed with capitalists and free marketeers over how best to achieve those things. Now I am not so sure. An extraordinary piece appears in the Guardian today by Jason Hickel, an anthropologist at Goldsmiths College, which savages Bill Gates for tweeting, from Davos last week, an infographic showing several ways in which global poverty is declining. I can think of many reasons to savage Bill Gates,

Davos’s guilty secret

Somehow I had managed more than a quarter of a century in journalism without ever going to Davos. It had become almost a badge of honour, the one gathering of global nabobs I had been able to dodge year after year. But here I am in the mountains of Switzerland, a new boy amid the pilgrims come to worship at the altar of globalisation. I am international by profession and inclination — could a diplomatic correspondent be anything else? — but I can report that this annual meeting of the world’s great and good makes itself easy to lampoon. One friend, also on his first Davos tour, says it is

Sadiq Khan is wrong about rent control

Rent control would worsen London’s housing crisis while hurting the poor, immigrants, and minorities. Yet Sadiq Khan wants to make it the central plank of his bid to win re-election as London Mayor. Khan has said the case for rent control is ‘overwhelming’ and that ‘Londoners overwhelmingly want it to happen’. But while some may see rent control as a way of capping the money going into the pockets of landlords, it would actually make London’s problems worse. Rent control would lead to less home building—what London actually needs. On top of that it will mean lower quality housing and discrimination against the most vulnerable. From San Francisco to Stockholm, Berlin and New York, rent

British politicians have some lessons to learn from Jersey

Let’s be honest: when most of us think about Jersey the words ‘tax’ and ‘avoidance’ come quickly to mind. Okay, so maybe Bergerac, cows and potatoes first, but financial chicanery certainly isn’t far behind. That was certainly my association when I got a call from Jersey Finance Limited (JFL), the financial sector’s industry body. They were looking to review how they communicated the Crown Dependency’s financial services offering and wanted a strategic partner to help share these messages. I have to admit that I knew next-to-nothing about the largest of the Channel Islands, nestled between England and France. A year on, I know a little more about the Bailiwick of

Martin Vander Weyer

The mystery behind Patisserie Valerie’s collapse

Patisserie Valerie, the cake-shop chain that found a potentially fraudulent £40 million black hole in its finances last October, fell into administration today after failing to persuade its bankers not to pull the plug. Chairman Luke Johnson, having lent the company £10 million plus last-minute cash to help pay this month’s wages for 3,000 staff, joins the creditors’ queue. Investors who put £15 million into his attempted rescue late last year are disgruntled, while investigations into the role of auditors Grant Thornton and former finance director Chris Marsh have yet to throw light on what went wrong in the first place. What’s curious about this mystery story is that it

Matthew Lynn

Stuart Rose is being vindicated for his Brexit wages warning

It was one of the more memorable moments of the referendum campaign. In the midst of a fevered debate between Remainers and Leavers – and with the Treasury and its allies rolling out ever more lurid predictions by the day – Stuart Rose, the former Marks & Spencer chairman who was in charge of the Remain campaign, made the point that leaving the EU might lead to higher wages. And that would, of course, be a very bad thing, at least from the perspective of a multi-millionaire businessman who had made his career as an employer of mainly relatively low-paid retail workers. The Remain campaign wasn’t the best run organisation

Is the UK auto industry only struggling because of Brexit?

The popular new narrative for the UK auto industry is that its troubles are only temporarily to do with Brexit and much more to do with misguided policies, wrong decisions and economic swings. There’s a sharp decline in demand for luxury models from pinched Chinese consumers, while diesel sales have slumped because regulators continue to penalise them despite cleaner engines, leaving manufacturers regretting model-range investments. The EU’s new emissions testing regime has caused production problems across the continent; electric vehicle sales won’t take off until governments provide more charging points; and as interest rates begin to rise, motorists are losing the appetite for buying new cars on credit. Set against

Charles Moore

Is there no-one in the universities sector who can do arithmetic?

This week, Universities UK and the Russell Group, seemingly speaking on behalf of the whole sector, produced an Open Letter from distinguished vice-chancellors. ‘It is no exaggeration to suggest,’ said the letter, ‘that this [leaving the EU without a deal] would be an academic, cultural and scientific setback from which it would take decades to recover.’ Actually, it would be as exaggerated as a Donald Trump tweet. The detail of this is brilliantly demonstrated by Noel Malcolm in an analysis for Briefings for Brexit. The bit that made me burst out laughing was Sir Noel’s comparison of a similar Open Letter, from 103 university vice-chancellors, just before the referendum vote

Best Buys: One year fixed rate bonds | 15 January 2019

A fixed rate bond can earn you more interest than a notice or easy access savings account, but it does mean putting your cash to one side for a year. If you can face doing that, then here are some of the best one year fixed rate bonds on the market at the moment, from data supplied by moneyfacts.co.uk.

Steerpike

Theresa May moves the market

After suffering what could be the largest Commons defeat in over a hundred years – far surpassing anyone’s expectations, it’s fair to say that Theresa May will not be happy with the way things went this evening. So she might take comfort in the fact that her deal did at least have one positive outcome: providing a small boost to the economy –  though probably not in the way she intended. In response to her Brexit deal being voted down by a massive margin, the pound briefly fell, and then rebounded sharply against the Euro and the Dollar, a clear sign that the uncertainty of the Brexit process was still

Martin Vander Weyer

Has the single currency proved its worth?

Against a background of drooping eurozone growth (the consensus forecast is 1.6 per cent this year) I met no one in France who was celebrating the 20th birthday of the euro, despite European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker’s imaginative toast to it as ‘a symbol of unity, sovereignty and stability [that] has delivered prosperity and protection for our citizens’. The French associate the euro with the inflation that is stoking unrest, but only the very old feel nostalgic for the franc (and they tend to mean the pre-1960 ‘old franc’, of which there were 100 to the new one). In summary, southern Europeans, especially Greeks, regard the euro as an instrument