Peace deal

Last night there was a huge breakthrough in Ukraine peace talks, with Zelensky accepting a US proposal for a ceasefire and placing ‘the ball in Putin’s court’, according to Marco Rubio. While getting Zelensky to accept is a huge diplomatic win, the proposal hinges on Putin agree to the terms of the ceasefire – which will last for 30 days but can be extended by mutual agreement. ‘I’ll talk to Vladimir Putin. It takes two to tango,’ said Donald Trump. Can Putin afford to reject the deal? And could this be the basis for a lasting peace? Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has been getting a lot of credit for his role

Today marks three years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. From early fears of a swift Russian victory to the Kharkiv offensive and the slow war of attrition that has played out since, each stage of this war has been hard to predict. None more so than this stage, with the USA drastically changing tack and tearing up the transatlantic alliance by pursuing back-channel peace talks with Putin. Europe has been left scrambling. Where do we go from here? And with an isolationist USA, the breakdown of the European consensus on Ukraine and the UK’s armed forces being hollowed out, who is left to defend Europe? James

The future of Ukraine is being decided in a meeting between US and Russian diplomats in Saudi Arabia today. So far, we understand that America will insist that Ukraine is recognised as a sovereign nation, but NATO membership remains off the table. Meanwhile, European leaders have been cut out of the conversations. In response, they held their own summit yesterday, but it didn’t seem like they were all singing from the same hymn sheet. While the UK is pushing for higher defence spending and is willing to commit troops, other European nations seem more dovish, especially Germany and Italy. This is reflected in opinion polls as well. What’s going on? 

There is lots to make sense of today in a huge week for European and world politics, with the fallout of the Munich Conference and today’s emergency summit in Paris. European powers are trying to navigate peace in Ukraine in the face of a belligerently isolationist Trump administration. The UK is caught between preserving its privileged position with the US and the desire for a European reset, as well as the need for an end to the war in Ukraine without giving in to Russia. Can Starmer bridge the transatlantic chasm that has opened up? Do the Europeans want us, and do the Americans need us?  Events in Europe will