Recession

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

The next government will have to help this lost generation

It’s noteworthy enough when David Blanchflower – a member of the Bank of England’s MPC until May this year – says that the government “isn’t doing enough” to stem the unemployment crisis, as he does in an article for today’s Guardian.  But his more specific points about the “lost generation” of unemployed young people are also worth highlighting. As Fraser blogged yesterday, this recession is taking a particular toll on those aged under 25.  Partially, this is down to school and university leavers being unable to find work.  But, as Blachflower points out, there’s another effect at play – young people with jobs are the first in line to lose

Peter Hoskin

The race to recovery is looking bad for Brown

Oh dear.  Another blow to Brown’s economic credibility this morning, as France and Germany announce that they’ve come out of recession already.  Both economies grew by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of the year – in contrast to the UK economy, which shrank by 0.8 percent. Whatever the factors behind it, this spells trouble for Brown.  A poor performance in the race to recovery not only calls his management of the economy into question, but it also undermines his anticipated “green shoots strategy”.  The PM will find it hard to brag about our “green shoots” when other countries already have full-grown plants. You can expect the Tories to pounce

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

The truth behind Mandy’s “half-a-million jobs” claim

Anyone listening to Lord Mandelson’s claim this morning that the Brown stimulus saved “at least” half a million jobs would have smelt a large, whiskered rat. The Treasury has tonight told The Telegraph that the 500,000 figure was a maximum estimate, not a minimum as Mandy claimed. Your baristas here at Coffee House have asked the Treasury to show us their study – not available, it seems. So we have submitted a Freedom of Information request for it. While we all hold our breath, it’s worth looking at this claim in more detail because it is a Brownie we are highly likely to hear again. First, here’s Mandy’s comments to

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown’s children

Why is this recession so cruel to the young? The unemployment figures – now up to 2.44 million – are bad enough. It’s the largest single quarterly drop since data began in 1971. But look deeper and there’s a striking disparity amongst the age groups. The under-18s – school leavers – are hit the most, with their employment numbers down 17% year-on-year. The 18-24 year olds are next worst hit. But there is actually a rise in pension-aged people returning to work. The bottom line: unemployment amongst the under-25s is a third higher than when Labour came to power. CoffeeHousers may remember how full of pious anger Gordon Brown was

Wednesday

Martin Bright

Is this the Most Stupid Headline Ever?

This morning’s Telegraph excelled itself in the idiocy stakes. The headline on the story about the government’s Future Jobs Fund announcement was dripping with the kind of sneering philistine right-wing pomposity we will probably have to live with for the next half-decade. “£1bn scheme to create ‘soft jobs” screamed the “hamper” story across the top of the front page. This scheme was first announced in the Budget, but the first tranche of 47,000 jobs, mainly created in local authorities was announced by Peter Mandelson and Yvette Cooper today. Examples of “soft jobs” given by the Telegraph included “dance assistants, tourism ambasadors and solar panel engineers”. The paper quotes Susie Squire of

Thursday

Martin Bright

Revive the Enterprise Allowance Scheme

Some will see it as final proof that I have made the journey from left to right, but I have to say I don’t see it that way. In tomorrow’s Telegraph I have written a column calling for the revival of the Thatcher-era Enterprise Allowance Scheme. This initiative gave a £40 per week payment to people who wanted to get off the dole and set themselves up in business. Alumni include Alan McGee, who set up Creation Records on the EAS, Julian Dunkerton of the Superdry fashion label and visual artists Jane and Louise Wilson. New Deal of the Mind was commissioned by the Arts Council to examine the government’s response to the recesssion. Our

Wednesday

James Forsyth

A mutual decision?

There is an interesting little story tucked away in today’s Daily Mirror, the government might only sell off Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley on condition that they are turned into mutually-owned societies. Jason Beattie reports that the idea of turning them back into building societies is being backed by John McFall, the chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, and 29 other Co-Operative party Labour MPs. I suspect that if Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley are de-nationalised this side of the election, something that I suspect Brown would like to do, the price will be the key determinant. But, politically, I can see the appeal of insisting that they

Tuesday

Martin Bright

Britain: the Coming Crisis

Do we really have any idea of how serious this is about to become? As I sat watching BBC 2’s recesion drama Freefall tonight I realsied that we are beginning to get an inkling. This was a quick-hit drama intended as an immediate response to the recession and it was very rough at the edges, but it showed how quickly the culture has grasped that this getting very grim indeed. It was a conventional enough story of an aspirational family wanting to move to a new private housing estate, but it sent a chill through these bones. There was a fascinating set of statistics in Nick Cohen’s Observer column this weekend, which should send

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Brown’s legacy of inequality, poverty and joblessness

We all know Labour has failed to run an efficient economy or public services, but what’s little discussed is its failure to achieve even its own goals. Had Brown bankrupted the country but, say, made the poorest much better off, then Labour members might not be facing such an existential crisis. As it stands they won three victories, trebled health spending, redistributed some £1.5 trillion – and will end up with a society even more ‘unequal’ than it ever was under Thatcher. I look at this in my column today, and thought I’d share a few of the points with CoffeeHousers. First, equality. This (rather than making the poor better

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Brown puts on his gloomy face for the world stage

How peculiar.  After all the economic optimism coming out of government recently, all the talk of recovery by the end of the year, Brown’s going to warn that the worst of the recession may be yet to come in his meetings with G8 leaders this week.  The Times has the full story here, but this snippet from the Dear Leader’s address in France today gives you the idea: “If we do not take the necessary action now to strengthen the world economy and put in place the conditions for sustainable world growth, we will be confronted with avoidable unemployment for years to come.” So does this mean he’s losing faith

Friday

Fraser Nelson

One crisis after another

Many CoffeeHousers will give a horse laugh to the idea of “green shoots” – especially the idea of Gordon Brown winning a fourth term because a grateful nation will thank him for a recovered economy. It’s a delusion, nothing surer, and the same one Callaghan and Major suffered from. In both cases, there were firm signs of an economic recovery – but the electorate never forgave the government which landed them in the mire. But is Britain recovering? We’ve seen a few developments lately which, given the fun and games elsewhere, have gone unnoticed. So here’s a catchup. Pick up the financial pages, and you’ll find numerous stories of success:

Friday

Martin Bright

Another Way Out of this Mess

One of the reasons I haven’t been blogging as often as I should is that I’ve been writing a report for the Arts Council about self-employment in the creative industries. I’ve been convinced for some time that the government should be re-creating some version of the 1980s Enterprise Allowance Scheme to encourage entreprenership. The original scheme paid people £40 a week to set up their own businesses. This was slightly more than the dole at the time and this acted as an incentive for people to come off benefits. This was seen at the time as a way of fixing the unemployment figures, but it also launched a number of

Wednesday

Martin Bright

Why the Reshuffle is Not the Solution

As I wandered through parliament on Monday evening I bumped into a former minister who had just come out of the do-or-die parliamentary Labour Party meeting. He reached in his pocket and showed me a text message on his mobile from a constituency activist: “So it’s a slow, lingering death then,” it said. This was the week the Labour Party finally, definitively admitted defeat. The European elections demonstrated that Labour can’t win under Gordon Brown’s leadership. James Purnell’s courage in being the first Cabinet minister to voice what his colleagues know to be the case was met with shuffling feet and bowed heads. The expressions of loyalty from those who

Thursday

Martin Bright

Moving from Crisis to Catastrophe

Perhaps James Purnell was at Hamlet last night as well. There is a kind of tragic inevitability to all this now. Until tonight there was at least the appearance of a government. Now even that thin veil has been removed. There is nothing left with which to govern. Think of the already vacant Cabinet posts: Home Secretary, Communities and Local Government and Work and Pensions. Then imagine who, with any talent,  you would put in those posts. It’s hopeless. The idea that Gordon Brown will simply fill posts with newly-elected peers is part laughable, part terrifying. I went on Sky News tonight and said James Purnell’s letter was an act of unusual honesty.

Monday

Martin Bright

Is Anyone Thinking Strategically?

The MPs’ expenses scandal has been a devastating distracttion. It has been an essential process. But it is a distraction all the same. How many times have commentators now said the country is now facing a political crisis to match the economic crisis? This is not the whole story. The economic situation means that people’s anger about the venal behaviour of their MPs is intensified to the point of  fury. But the MPs’ scandal is just a sideshow to the main problem, which is a serious political vacuum at the top of British politics. No one is now listening to Gordon Brown any more. His position has become absurd. He can’t seriously expect us to believe he will deliver on constitutional

Wednesday

Martin Bright

The FT Turns On Thatcherism

 A truly magnificent piece by Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times yetsterday. An extremely nuanced argument, which ends with the following paragraph: “One of Mrs Thatcher’s most famous phrases was: “There is no alternative.” As yet, no major political figure in Britain or the western world has really articulated a coherent alternative to the free-market principles inherited from Thatcherism. Until that happens, the Thatcher era will not be definitively over.” The rest of the piece, however, is an important deconstruction of the Thatcherite case for moral superiority.  “Perhaps most damagingly, Thatcherism has lost the moral high ground. The Iron Lady once proclaimed, slightly sinisterly: “Economics is the method. The object

Thursday

Martin Bright

What Would a Budget for Innovation, Enterprise and Aspiration Look Like?

The papers make pretty depressing reading this morning, whether you are Alistair Darling, a Spactator reader facing the prospect of a 50p top tax rate or a member of the mythological “hardworking” family. Growth at its lowest rate since the war, stratospheric debt, unemployment over two million: the end of the first decade of the 21st century is turning into a living nightmare. And I don’t buy the prediction that this will be over by the end of the year.  I agree with those who say that the government which takes us out of recession will harness the hard work, enterprise and aspiration of the nation. But I really don’t

Wednesday

Martin Bright

Reserving Judgement

It is so very tempting to storm in after a Budget and make sweeping assessments. Journalists are paid to do just that but they risk being blinded by ideology or government briefings. Fraser has already decided that this was the worst Budget ever. And the front pages suggest that editors are none too happy with Alistair Darling’s “Budget for Jobs”. I think it’s probably too early to say. Remember,most people missed the significance of the removal of the 10 pence tax rate two years ago. This is the first time in four years that I haven’t had to rush into print over the Budget and that is something of a relief. It

Saturday

Martin Bright

The Lost Generation

I always get it in the neck here when I quote Polly Toynbee. But maybe I will get away with quoting her quoting Professor Danny Blanchflower, who, like me, is warning against losing a generation to the recession. Here’s the relevant passage from Polly’s column in today’s Guardian: “The man now on a mission to persuade Nos 10 and 11 to move fast is the only monetary policy committee member who saw the coming crash. Ministers are listening as Professor David Blanchflower urges emergency spending to prevent mass youth unemployment. With 800,000 under-25s out of work and another 600,000 leaving school this summer, he wants the budget to borrow £90bn to rescue

Thursday

Martin Bright

Boris Just Doesn’t Get It

When I began making my film about Ken Livingstone last year it became clear pretty quickly that there were serious issues around the accountability of the Mayor of London. To his credit this was something that Ken always realised. When challenged about the fact that he ran London as his personal fiefdom, Ken agreed, because he understood that was this was pricedsly the structure of the office of Mayor established when the institution was set up. Quite early on in the Boris campaign, the Tory candidate was asked about issues of accountability and he admitted that he didn’t understand what the fuss was about. His advisers soon pointed out that