Rishi sunak

Johnny Mercer takes another swipe at Rishi

Oh dear. Rishi Sunak is the subject of criticism from lockdown supporters everywhere this morning over a Telegraph front page detailing the Chancellor’s apparent concerns that scientists are moving the goal posts on when lockdown ought to end. Treasury sources are keen to play down the report – but the aspect that has Mr S’s interest isn’t so much the contents but one MP’s response to the news, Step forward Johnny Mercer. The defence minister was quick to ‘like’ a tweet by commentator Dan Hodges suggesting Sunak ‘needs to get back in his box and stay focussed on the economics’. While everyone is allowed the occasional accidental like on social

Will Boris Johnson’s Scotland trip backfire?

The pandemic may still be in full swing but that hasn’t stopped the SNP opting to push the case for an independence referendum sooner rather than later. Nicola Sturgeon claimed over the weekend that should the SNP win a majority (as expected) in the Scottish parliament elections, she will hold an advisory referendum on independence, whether or not Boris Johnson consents to the move.  Not everyone in government is convinced the First Minister would go ahead with this should push come to shove. But the fact it’s even on the table points to the problem Johnson has on Scottish independence – his insistence that now is not the time for a second

The Tory split over universal credit

Today’s papers are splashed with good news on the pace of the vaccine rollout, with over-70s now being invited for a jab. However, the issue currently causing angst in the Tory party is universal credit. Last week, Labour attacked the government over free school meals, today they will put the government under pressure over the universal credit uplift. At the start of the pandemic in April last year, Rishi Sunak increased the payment by £20 a week.  The issue of whether that increase will continue will be discussed at opposition day debate this evening. Boris Johnson is being urged to extend the benefit increase beyond 31 March when it is currently set to

The Brexit deal has left the City to fight for its own future

‘This Article shall not apply with respect to financial services.’ That’s what it says on page 92 of the EU-UK Trade Co-operation Agreement, and my search engine has found nothing else in the monster document offering any comfort to the sector, which contributes £130 billion to the UK economy and provides more than a million jobs. That’s in marked contrast to fishing — £1.4 billion, 24,000 jobs — which gets a compromise settlement (pages 919-925, if you’re keen) accounting for every last haddock, hake and horse mackerel. No great surprise in a Brexit process in which political symbolism trumped economic sense at every turn: but does it mean our bankers

Sunak unveils lockdown bail-out for businesses

Rishi Sunak’s latest giveaway totals £4.6 billion in grants for the retail, hospitality and leisure sectors, amounting to up to £9,000 per outlet. Alongside this comes an additional £1.1 billion for local authorities and a £600 million discretionary fund for businesses that might not qualify for the main grant. This money is meant to help businesses with their fixed costs problem: having to pay rent, utilities and upkeep despite bringing in far less income (in some cases, no income at all). The largest cost for most business owners — payroll — was addressed in December when the Chancellor extended the furlough scheme to the end of April.  But this extra support

Rishi Sunak’s definition of a ‘sustainable’ deficit

Last week, Katy Balls and I interviewed Rishi Sunak for the Christmas issue of The Spectator (out today) and his comments on debt have caused some interest in today’s newspapers. As ever with such interviews, there’s only so much you can squeeze into two pages but I thought it worth elaborating on his position today. I suspect it will come to define the political debate next year: yes, 2020 was a year of almighty splurge. Sunak has borrowed more in ten months than Gordon Brown did in ten years: but there was a pandemic. The question is how you get that back to normal. For a surprising number of Tories,

Portrait of the year: Coronavirus, falling statues, banned Easter eggs and compulsory Scotch eggs

January Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, signed the EU withdrawal agreement, sent from Brussels by train. Sajid Javid, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, promised ‘an infrastructure revolution’ in the Budget. An American drone killed Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard commander, near Baghdad airport. Iran carelessly shot down a Ukrainian airliner taking off from Tehran, killing 176. Bush fires raged in New South Wales. Cases of acute viral pneumonia were noticed in Wuhan in central China. February Eighty-three British evacuees from Wuhan were quarantined on the Wirral. The Department of Health classified Covid-19 as a ‘serious and imminent threat’. In Hubei 68 million people were made to stay at

The public sector delusion

I wonder how much more money we will have to bung the teachers in order to inculcate within them an amenability towards doing a spot of teaching? They still seem terribly averse to the whole idea. During the first lockdown, 60 per cent of young children received no virtual lessons at all from teaching staff, and one in five pupils over 12 was given no work to do, according to the Children’s Commissioner. Virtual lessons shouldn’t have been terribly difficult to arrange, but most of the time there were none. My own daughter had no virtual lessons from March to July (which is why she’s no longer in the state

The foreign aid cut marks a change of priorities

The proposed reduction in international aid from 0.7 to 0.5 per cent of GDP has elicited a furious reaction from some quarters. It has been condemned by five former prime ministers, three of whom never met the target when they were in office. What is missing from this debate is the historical context. The rise in development spending was part of the peace dividend that followed the end of the cold war. But the just-concluded defence spending settlement marks a UK recognition that this peace dividend is over — great power competition is back and this country’s military spending now needs to increase. Over the next decade or so, military

Ross Clark

Did Labour just fall into Rishi Sunak’s trap?

Just what is the essential difference between our two main political parties? Certainly not their respective attitudes towards fiscal prudence; the thing which used to provide clear blue water between the two. Now we have two parties which don’t give a damn about public debt, who think that they can spend willy-nilly and that something, somehow will come round and save them in the end.  No, the message of today’s spending review is that the Conservatives and Labour are entrenching their respective positions as the representatives of two tribes: private sector workers and public sector ones. We all know there’s bad news on the horizon in the shape of tax

Stephen Daisley

The Tory case for overseas aid

There may be worse times to slash international development spending than the middle of a pandemic but it’s got to at least be in the top five. The reduction from 0.7 per cent of GDP to 0.5 represents a drop of £4 billion in investment. As Katy Balls notes, the current level was not only a manifesto commitment in 2019 but is enshrined in law, so ministers will have to ask parliament to legislate to allow them to break their own manifesto promise. International development is like foreign policy: there are no votes to be gained from it. In fact, abolishing it altogether would make the Tories more popular with their target

Kate Andrews

Sunak’s Spending Review and the devastating impact of Covid

It’s been no secret that Covid-19 has sent the UK’s finances into disarray — but today we received a further insight into just how bad the books are looking. Alongside Rishi Sunak’s Spending Review came updated forecasts and scenarios published by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which confirm the UK economy is set to shrink by 11.3 per cent this year — the largest economic fall in 300 years. The road to recovery is forecast to be a long one: economic output is not expected to return to pre-Covid levels for another two years: Q4 in 2022. There is still no sign of a sharp, V-shaped recovery, but rather another

Robert Peston

The true cost of the coronavirus debt

There is a view that we don’t have to worry about the record debt the government has accumulated since coronavirus laid waste to our way of life and our economy. And in two senses I would half agree – though the other half of me is wracked with anxiety.  First, this is not a uniquely British problem; it is a problem of all developed economies. However, you should not underestimate the geopolitical significance of the explosion of debt in the rich West, because it represents by implication the fastest transfer of wealth and power to China and Asia in our lifetimes.  Second, there is the important counterfactual – namely what

Isabel Hardman

Does Rishi Sunak understand the scale of the mental health crisis?

Unsurprisingly, health spending will be a key part of Rishi Sunak’s spending review announcements this afternoon, with the Chancellor expected to pledge £3 billion for the NHS as it recovers from the pandemic. Part of that will be a £500 million boost for mental health, which accompanies a ‘winter care plan’ that was published earlier this week. Ministers are very keen to say they recognise the pressure that the pandemic has put on services and people who may be developing mental health problems for the first time, as a result of the strain they have found themselves under this year. But this money won’t go very far. The Strategy Unit

Sunday shows round-up: Rishi anticipates ‘more economic stress’

Rishi Sunak – There is more economic stress to come The Chancellor of the Exchequer will deliver the 2020 spending review this Wednesday, and it will shock no one to hear that the public finances are not in good health. Joining Andrew Marr in the studio, Rishi Sunak said that the economy was not out of the woods yet, and may not be for a long time: RS: The economy is experiencing significant stress. We’ve seen that particularly in the labour market… [There is] more stress to come, and that is very sad to see… and it’s something that we’re going to grapple with for a while to come sadly.

Katy Balls

The difficult decision Rishi Sunak has to make

This week Boris Johnson is expected to announce an end to the national lockdown. However, with a return to normal still far away with the UK to move back into a stricter form of the three tier system, good news remains limited for the time being. That’s also the case with the Chancellor’s spending review. When Rishi Sunak gets up at the despatch box on Wednesday to announce his funding decisions, there will be hints of the difficult decisions he and Johnson face in the coming months and years as a result of coronavirus spending. Sunak and Johnson must decide whether to implement tax rises in this parliament, or fight the next

Why Boris, not Rishi, will lead the Tories into the next election

Some Tory MPs are hoping that Dominic Cummings’ departure from Downing Street will bring with it a vital lift to Boris Johnson’s premiership. Other Tory MPs have made up their minds about Boris already. Either they think he was always a flawed character whose only use was winning them the 2019 general election, a job long since passed; or they have been turned off by any number of things that have transpired in 2020. Basically, some Conservative MPs will be disappointed in 2021 when Boris turns out to be Boris; others are past caring. In spite of this, it seems almost certain that Boris Johnson remains in Number 10 for

If taxes must rise, Sunak should pick on private equity instead

It’s not axiomatic that taxes must rise to pay for the pandemic, if you seriously believe the surge in growth, jobs and prosperity that will follow the rollout of a hyper-efficient national vaccination programme will generate sufficient revenues for Rishi Sunak to stabilise the public finances, albeit at the highest level of debt ever seen in modern times. On the other hand, the Chancellor is surely pondering this question: in the current mood of public gratitude for the NHS and government support for the economy, there must be taxes I can tweak that won’t lose sackloads of Tory votes and might chip the peak off the debt mountain — so

Treasury reveals it didn’t forecast economic impact of second lockdown

Lockdowns are designed to temporarily delay the spread of the virus – but at what cost? This was the line of questioning that kicked off yesterday’s evidence session for the Treasury Select Committee, scrutinising the work HM Treasury has conducted in relation to lockdown. Chair of the committee Mel Stride asked Clare Lombardelli, Chief Economic Adviser to the Treasury, to comment on specific economic analyses conducted around lockdown restrictions, ranging from the closure of pubs, gyms and restaurants to ‘circuit breakers’ and working from home directives. It was quickly revealed that no analysis has been done. Stride’s interest stemmed from Sage meeting minutes dated 21 September, which referenced a ‘package