Scotland

Scottish Labour is in crisis; is Jim Murphy the solution?

I suspect that the Scottish Labour gala dinner in Glasgow tonight won’t feel like much of a gala. The Scottish Labour party is in crisis: its leader has quit attacking the UK Labour party for treating it like a ‘branch office’ and now an Ipsos-Mori Westminster voting intention poll has the SNP on 52 per cent to Labour’s 23 per cent. This poll is a reminder of the scale of the challenge facing whoever is the new leader of the Scottish Labour party. I argue in the magazine this week  that Jim Murphy is, by a distance, the best candidate for the job. He has what Scottish Labour so desperately

Alex Massie

Boom! Bombshell poll annihilates Labour in Scotland

Grotesque. Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. Today’s Ipsos-Mori opinion poll is the most astonishing survey of Scottish political opinion in living memory. Perhaps, even, the most remarkable survey of all time. It is, of course, a snapshot not a prediction. The actual election will not produce anything like these numbers. I don’t believe the SNP will win 52% of the Scottish vote in May. I don’t believe the Labour party will take 23% of votes. And I don’t actually believe the Conservatives will only be supported by 10% of voters. Still, there is something happening in Scotland right now. The electorate is volatile. Just a month ago Survation reported Labour’s support (amongst decided voters) at

Isabel Hardman

Meltdown! Shock poll puts Scottish Labour on 4 MPs and the SNP on 54

Just to make Scottish Labour’s misery complete – and underline the case for a bold leader who likes winning things – STV have published a poll by Ipsos Mori putting Ed Miliband’s party on just 23 per cent, which would see them losing all but four of their Scottish MPs, against 52 per cent support for the SNP, which would get 54 Westminster seats. The question was how would those surveyed vote if there were a general election tomorrow. The Scottish Conservatives would lose their one seat, with 10 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems would retain one with 6 per cent, while the Greens polled 6 per cent,

James Forsyth

Scotland needs Jim Murphy (even if he doesn’t want to go back there)

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_30_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss Jim Murphy” startat=997] Listen [/audioplayer]There should, by rights, have been a stampede of candidates to replace Johann Lamont as the leader of the Scottish Labour party. With the new powers promised to Holyrood, the Scottish First Minister promises to be a more powerful figure than most of the Cabinet. Only the holders of the great offices of state will be more influential than the occupant of Bute House. Labour might well trail the SNP by a large margin in the Holyrood polls, but their position is by no means hopeless. But since she decided to step down, there was silence. After days

Jim Murphy has what Scottish Labour needs: energy, fearlessness and the ability to win

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_30_Oct_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss Jim Murphy” startat=1010] Listen [/audioplayer]There should, by rights, have been a stampede of candidates to replace Johann Lamont as the leader of the Scottish Labour party. With the new powers promised to Holyrood, the Scottish First Minister promises to be a more powerful figure than most of the Cabinet. Only the holders of the great offices of state will be more influential than the occupant of Bute House. Labour might well trail the SNP by a large margin in the Holyrood polls, but their position is by no means hopeless. But since she decided to step down, there was silence. After days

Jim Murphy is Scottish Labour’s only hope

At the risk of intruding into someone else’s calamity, if you can’t enjoy this what can you enjoy? By this I mean, of course, Scottish Labour’s meltdown. (Suggestions the party is not actually an iced lollipop should not be taken too seriously.) The thing to remember about Labour in Scotland is they’ve never been as popular as they like to think. They’ve only ever been the largest minority. A large and zombified minority, to be sure, but a minority nonetheless. They never – ever – spoke for a majority of Scots. They only claimed to. They still do. That’s the astonishing thing. They are the people’s army, the political will

Alas, poor Johann Lamont: a symptom, not the cause, of Labour’s decline in Scotland

It was the wee things that did it. Things like vision, inspiration, confidence and all the other details that coalesce into that strange something called leadership. There are many types of leader and leadership is another of those things easier to see than define but all successful leaders share one essential quality: they can choose a hill and persuade their followers that’s the place they must die. Johann Lamont never had a hill. By the end she didn’t have much of an army either. Scottish Labour is a party suffering from some kind of political dementia right now. It kind of remembers being a contender and it still stands before

James Forsyth

A double strength headache for Miliband

Johann Lamont and Tony Blair don’t have much in common. But they are both causing Ed Miliband trouble this morning.   I suspect that those close to Miliband are relieved that Lamont has quit as the leader of the Scottish Labour party; his statement on her resignation last night was barely lukewarm. Certainly, the Miliband circle didn’t hold her in high regard and became despairing of her abilities during the referendum campaign. But what they won’t like is how she has taken a swing at them on the way out. She has lambasted Miliband’s office for treating Scottish Labour as ‘a branch office of a party based in London.’ These words will

A federal UK? Home Rule all round? We have been here before.

There are fewer truly new things in politics than you think. The present constitutional uncertainty – which, it should be said, could scarcely have been avoided – is no exception. We have been here before, all of us, even if we choose to forget our previous gallops around this track. A century ago – on September 18th, to be precise – a bill for Irish Home Rule was finally passed. It had taken three attempts and nearly 30 years but it was passed at last. There would, once again, be an Irish parliament. Or there would have been had it not been for the Kaiser’s War. The guns of August

Keep calm and address Ebola: a brief history of pandemics at The Spectator

Ebola clinics in many parts of West Africa are full, so more and more people are being told to stay at home and take Paracetamol and fluids if they become infected. It means if someone in your family gets Ebola, you all have to stay in the house, which is effectively a death sentence. At the moment, the disease is killing 70 per cent of the people it infects, but that’s likely to go up. People who need other medical treatment can’t get it, and in Sierra Leone 40 per cent of farmland has been abandoned. Western governments are building secure military encampments for health workers, fearing civil unrest and

I vow to thee, my Scotland, a small number of earthly things

Politics is a funny old game. I could have sworn the Yes campaign lost the Battle for Scotland in pretty decisive fashion last month. Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom. It did not vote for something that might be reckoned some kind of Independence Within the United Kingdom for the very good reason that was not the question asked. The country may not have rejected independence – and endorsed the Union – overwhelmingly but it did do so decisively. But to hear SNP and Yes supporters speak these days you’d think nothing of the sort had happened at all. They lost the war but think they have a

Add to Miliband’s worries: Can Ukip go after Labour in Scotland?

Scottish Ukip MEP David Coburn has been shouting off, as his way, about his party’s prospects north of the border in 2015. Mr Coburn is a curious character – and there is a certainly an element of bluster here: ‘We’re looking at the Scottish rust belt. Seats where there were serious industries that were ­allowed to run down, with no replacement. These are seats that Labour has treated like a feudal system. It’s the Central Belt of Scotland, where people have just been abandoned or given sops to keep them happy.’ Whilst it should not be forgotten that Ukip gained 10 per cent of the Scottish vote in European elections

Ukip is a disaster for Labour. And then there’s Scotland…

Heywood and Middleton is a far worse result for Labour than for the Tories: we can agree on that, surely. Clacton is grim for Dave, of course, but I’m interested in what happens in the rotten Labour heartlands. Here’s something else for Ed Miliband to worry about: the SNP. Loathsome party, humiliated last month, but so angry and looking for revenge. The turnout in Scotland come the general election will surely be higher than usual. And much of it will be made up of occasional voters energised by the referendum. The SNP won’t take safe Labour seats: they’re hugely behind – we’re talking 20-point margins. But the electorate has changed. Peter Kellner

Effie Gray can effie off

Effie Gray, which has been written by Emma Thompson and recounts the doomed marriage of Victorian art critic John Ruskin to his teenage bride (he refused to consummate it), has a blissful cast. It stars Dakota Fanning, Ms Thompson herself, plus Julie Walters, David Suchet, Greg Wise, James Fox, Derek Jacobi and Robbie Coltrane. So it is period drama heaven, in this respect. It’s a cast you could watch all day, whatever, which is handy, as this is probably quite dull otherwise. It is adequate. It does the job. It gets us from A to B. But it feels as if it is missing something crucial, and I don’t just

Rory Sutherland

Why everywhere should be more like Essex

Apart from the Wye Valley, where I grew up, there are only two places in Britain I’d consider living: Kent and Essex. Since Kent grabbed the ‘Garden of England’ moniker, it’s generally considered the posher of the two, but in reality the two counties are mirror images of each other: in the words of one travel writer, the Medway towns are ‘where you take your northern friends when they claim that southerners are soft’. In both places it is possible to drive through an idyllic medieval village and two miles later find yourself at a KFC drive-thru which is open until two in the morning (I like both). I now

Portrait of the week: Cameron visits UN HQ, Scotland checks its bruises, and a Swede sells his submarine

Home David Cameron, the Prime Minister, visited New York for talks at the United Nations; he said Britain supported the American air strikes on the Islamic State. ‘These people want to kill us,’ Mr Cameron said on NBC news. Mr Cameron met President Hassan Rouhani of Iran in New York, the first such meeting since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Mr Cameron was caught by cameras in New York saying to Michael Bloomberg, its former mayor, that when he rang the Queen with the Scottish referendum result, ‘She purred down the line.’ Alex Salmond resigned as First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party, with effect from November. This

The Yes movement slowly moves through the Kubler-Ross stages of grief

No-one has died. No-one has been stabbed. Someone, I suppose, may have been punched. So let’s retain some sense of perspective as we consider and try to make sense of the last few days in Scotland. It is only day five. People deal with grief at different speeds. So, pace Ms Kubler-Ross, it shouldn’t be a surprise that many Yes voters are still in Denial. Many others have made it to Anger. Some have got as far as Bargaining. Most are certainly still in Depression. Only a few have reached Acceptance. True acceptance, I mean. There’s a lot of Yes we lost but if you look at it differently we

The Scottish Church showed little statesmanship or common sense during the referendum

A few hours after the final result of the Scottish referendum was announced, I visited the cemetery at Cille Bharra on the Outer Hebridean island of Barra. It’s the burial place of Sir Compton Mackenzie (1883-1972). I wondered what this versatile character, World War I British spymaster, novelist, and Catholic convert whom the students at Glasgow university elected as their rector in 1931, would have made of the result. He believed that the Catholic faith had greatly influenced the nations’s long-term personality and felt that its soul had shrivelled with the retreat of that faith to remote outposts such as Barra, where he had his home in the 1930s. An

Have the Scottish Tories been detoxified?

The referendum campaign was a mixed experience for the Scottish Tories. On the one hand, it was a reminder of how much they are still hated in Scotland: End Tory rule forever, was one of the more frequently heard Nationalist battle cries. On the other, they had one of the campaign’s most effective advocates, Ruth Davidson and were accepted in as part of the cross party campaign. Indeed, it was telling that the Better Together campaign together rather than hiding Davidson away used her more and more as the campaign went on. In his Scotsman column today, the former Labour spin doctor John McTernan declares that ‘Ruth Davidson’s campaign has

With malice toward none and with charity towards all, now the real work begins

Relief, actually. Not joy. A battle won is better than a battle lost but still an exhausting, bloody, business. There is no need to bayonet the wounded. It would, in any case, be grotesque to do so. Scotland voted and made, in my view, the right choice. The prudent choice. The bigger-hearted choice. But 45 per cent of my countrymen disagree. That’s something to be respected too. Moreover a good number of No voters did so reluctantly and not because they were necessarily persuaded by the case for Union but because they felt the Yes campaign had not proved its own argument beyond a reasonable doubt. That’s an important qualification. A reminder