Terrorism

Friday

David Blackburn

Bomb blast near the Norwegian Prime Minister’s office

  A reportedly enormous bomb blast has shaken the PM’s office and the oil ministry in Oslo, the Norwegian police confirm. Reports have confirmed that the Norwegian Prime Minister is safe, but it’s not clear if he’s un-injured. Early reports suggested that this might be a gas explosion, but those were discounted because there is no mains gas supply in Oslo. Norway’s state broadcaster has confirmed that one person has died, with more than 8 injured. Fortunately, it is the height of Norway’s holiday season and there were few people about. The Norwegian police, however, warn that there are other casualties being treated. Details remain vague. There also appears to have been at least one

Monday

David Blackburn

Quizzical eyes turn on Yates

The phone hacking saga is now moving at such pace it threatens to engulf the political establishment (whether it is a sufficiently serious story to do so is another matter). After Sir Paul Stephenson’s theatrical resignation, timed to upset newspaper deadlines and plotted to embarrass the Prime Minister, attention has now turned to John Yates. Boris Johnson has said that Yates has ‘questions to answer’; and Brian Paddick argues that Yates should fall on his sword too. The Metropolitan Police Standards Committee meets this morning, and, as Laura Kuenssberg notes, it may discuss John Yates’ conduct. Yates’ defence (that he was overseeing 20 terror cases at the same time as

Sunday

David Blackburn

Mitchell rejects allegation that UK aid is going to Islamists

Yesterday, Andrew Mitchell was the toast of the broadcasters. They have turned on him to an extent today. The news that portions of the £52.25 million given in emergency aid to the starving masses in the Horn of Africa will be distributed in areas controlled by al-Shabaab has forced Mitchell onto the defensive. “We shall have no dealings with al-Shabaab,” he said, and then added that the aid will reach its intended recipients by means other than collusion with the jihadists. This is an embarrassing moment for Mitchell and, of course, it is vital that money and supplies do not fall into the hands of well-fed fighters. However, it is

David Blackburn

Policing the Olympics

The reputation of the police may be as black as mud at the moment, but the Met has a chance to atone during the Olympics. Security forces have been making their preparations as the Olympic construction site nears completion.  In May, police officers, counter-intelligence officials and the emergency services conducted their first major security exercise. Further stress tests are being undertaken on local transport routes and waterways. And permanent surveillance of Olympic venues is being established; in future, visitors to these sites will be subject to airport-style security and a number of armed officers will patrol the area. Nothing, it seems, is being left to chance. These operations are being

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Where next for the US and Pakistan?

The US-Pakistani relationship is fast deteriorating. In May, I argued that unless President Asif Ali Zardari took decisive action against the ISI, the country’s military would continue to undermine relations with the West. Last week, the New York Times reached the same conclusion, calling for the removal of Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha. As President Zardari did nothing — probably fearing a military coup if he did act — the situation has merely been aggravated. What’s more, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that the US could suspend military aid to Pakistan unless it took unspecified steps to help find and fight terrorists. And the White House has since confirmed

Saturday

David Blackburn

Britain’s ill-defined counter-terror strategy exposed by America’s clarity

In a post over at the Staggers, defence and security expert Matt Cavanagh has compared and contrasted Barack Obama’s review of US counter-terrorism policy and the coalition’s recent update of the Prevent strategy, together with David Cameron’s professed ‘muscular liberalism’. Here are his insights: ‘The new (American) strategy contains a fairly detailed discussion of the Arab Spring, arguing for applying “targeted force on Al Qaida at a time when its ideology is under extreme pressure” from events in North Africa and the Middle East. By contrast, Britain’s revised Prevent strategy published three weeks ago, mentions these events only once – in a footnote, saying with characteristic bureaucratic obtuseness that it’s

David Blackburn

No paramilitary link to last night’s riots in East Belfast

The PSNI is clear that last night’s riots on Castlereagh Street, East Belfast, were not linked to sectarian paramilitary activity. Rather, this was a ‘spontaneous demonstration’ against the police. As I wrote last week, gangs on both sides of the Ulster divide have been targeting the police in recent months; and they rely on exploiting current economic hardship and ancient sectarian divisions to further their criminal ends. The continued violence is a test of Stormont’s ability to govern without the close supervision from Westminster. It’ll be interesting to see how the authorities, and Peter Robinson and Martin McGuiness in particular, respond in the coming weeks, recognising that this violence does

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

What will emerge from the ashes in Afghanistan?

On Monday, James drew attention to Dexter Filkins’ stark assessment of the situation in Afghanstan and of the strength of the Taliban. Today, the attack on a hotel in Kabul gives that assessment a fresh and tragic resonance. What we seem to be witnessing is the Taliban, or at least elements of them, flaunting their murderous intent as the West prepares to leave the country. From the assassination of General Daud to this Mumbai-style raid, their methods are becoming more ambitious, more headline-grabbing. Around ten innocents are said to have been killed this time around, along with six to seven of the Islamist militiamen. Every death, of course, raises doubts

Monday

James Forsyth

Afghanistan: The worries mount as the West prepares to drawdown

Dexter Filkins is one of the great war correspondents of the post 9/11 world. So it is particularly sobering to read his assessment of the Afghan situation as the West prepares to drawdown. Filkins reports that: “According to American officers, the level of violence in Afghanistan this year is fifteen per cent higher than it was at this time last year. The insurgents, far from being degraded, appear to be as resilient as ever. And their sanctuaries in Pakistan, where the Taliban leadership resides mostly unmolested, remain more or less intact.” Compounding this problem is that the levels of corruption in the Afghan government are continuing to alienate the population.

Daniel Korski

Looking behind the negative aid polls

There are, as the old adage goes, “lies, damned lies and statistics”. I’m beginning to think the same about polls. Take the polls that Britons are not as keen on overseas aid as the Prime Minister. Some of the headlines attached to them are prone to exaggeration. For example, on the back of the poll, the Mail claimed that “one in four people say they will no longer give money to charities such as Oxfam and Save the Children.” People may say that but they don’t seem to mean it. For it turns out that the British public has actually increased its giving to Save the Children by nearly 10 per

Thursday

Anne Dawson

Why Belfast is ablaze

I live three miles away from where the rioting was happening in East Belfast last night, and heard the helicopters whirring overhead. It was the kind of sound that anyone living in the city hoped never to hear again. As a child, I’d lie in bed and hear bombs and sirens and helicopters — and we had all hoped that dark chapter had been closed. A tipping point of violence has now been reached. A press photographer has been shot, another given a fractured skull after a second night of riots. And in the aftermath, the blame game cacophony begins: Who started it? It was them. No it was them

Peter Hoskin

Obama draws down his forces

It is as Matt Cavanagh predicted in his article for Coffee House, a few weeks ago. Barack Obama has decided to pull 10,000 of the 30,000 American “surge” troops out of Afghanistan this year. The remaining 20,000 will be outtathere by next summer. “Drawdown,” is the word that the US President used in his address last night, and it is happening at quite a pace. He presented this approach as a victory, suggesting that America has already achieved most of its goals in the country, and that “the tide of war is receding”. But there were one or two revealing notes of concession. “We will not try to make Afghanistan

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Public opinion on international aid isn’t where Cameron thinks it is

Andrew Mitchell was recently informed that the public is split 50:50 for and against increasing the international aid budget to £12 billion in 2013. A YouGov@Cambridge poll for Politics Home suggests that he should get some better advice. The poll shows that while the public is indeed split fairly evenly on the general principle of aid (41 per cent in favour, 38 per cent against), when it comes to the government’s promise to increase the aid budget by a third, those against outnumber those for by more than 2 to 1. The policy is by no means a Cameroon brainchild. In 1970 the United Nations set the target for government

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Will Pakistan’s politics help al-Qaeda’s new leader?

Just as any major employer would, al-Qaeda released a statement earlier to confirm the identity of its new boss. “Sheikh Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, may God guide him,” it read, “assumed responsibility as the group’s amir.” And just in case you were wondering whether the organisation’s attitude would change with its leadership, it added: “We ask God for this to be a new era for al-Qaeda under the leadership of Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an era that will purify Muslim land of every tyrant and infidel.” Which is to say: new leader, same danger. The appointment of Zawahiri comes as little surprise, even if there has been talk of divide and dissent within

Tuesday

David Blackburn

Attention shifts to Yemen

Since last week’s attack on Yemen’s President Saleh and his subsequent flight, Sana’a has been on the cusp of anarchy. Perhaps as many 400 people were killed in riots last week and the killing continues. Western diplomatic services fear for the safety of their citizens in Yemen. The MoD has been preparing contingencies. Forces and materiel deployed in the Libya are moving east. Two fleet auxiliary ships, equipped with helicopters and landing craft, and 80 Royal Marines have been stationed off the Yemeni coast. Should the 800 or so British nationals in Yemen need to be evacuated, the marines will secure a bridgehead. A further detachment, currently on exercises in

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The need for a strong man to strong-arm the new counter-terror policy

If the counter-terrorism strategy the government is announcing today is to succeed, it will have to overcome bureaucratic opposition and institutional inertia. As Dean Godson writes in The Times today (£), senior civil servants in the Office of Security and Counter-Terrorism are highly reluctant to accept the government’s new, more muscular approach to this issue and will go back to the old, failed way of doing things if given the chance. If the Prime Minister’s writ is going to run across government on this issue, he is going to need someone working from the centre with Cameron’s explicit backing whose sole role is to supervise the implementation of the policy

Daniel Korski

Preparing for a post-Gaddafi Libya

The Libya intervention has been in operation for a few months and the rebels have been making gains, most recently in Yafran. But progress remains slow and perhaps it is time to look again at how the lessons of Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan might have a bearing on Libya. The first lesson is simple: assume the worst. If you think that a regime will collapse quickly, plan for it to last a long time. If you expect a peaceful transition, plan for a violent one. And if you hope that unarmed monitors will be enough once hostilities are over, prepare for a well-armed peacekeeping force to be deployed. Optimistic predictions

Monday

James Forsyth

Counter-terrorism means stopping dealings with extremists

The coalition’s counter-terrorism strategy will be published tomorrow. This rather delayed review has been the subject of some semi-public wrangling, Cameron and Clegg have given speeches setting out very different visions for it. But one thing to remember is that the test of the review’s robustness isn’t just whether it stops government money going to extremists groups. It also has to lead to government, at all levels, stopping dealings with these groups, denying them the oxygen of recognition. Today’s Telegraph notes that 20 groups will lose their funding because the views they espouse are antithetical to British values. This is to be welcomed. But it won’t have much of an

Sunday

Daniel Korski

Trouble in Golan

In a clear move to distract attention from his own problems, Syrian president Bashir Assad has allowed people to march from the Syrian border toward the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, in the hope it will lead to a violent reaction from the Israelis. It did. Israeli forces opened fire on the people, wounding several. There are reports of at least four people killed and 13 wounded but these have not been verified. There can be no doubt that the incursion is part of a Syrian plan. The protests coincide with the 44th anniversary of the Six-Day War, when Israel captured the Golan from Syria, as well as the West Bank and

Peter Hoskin

So long, Saleh?

The Middle Eastern merry-go-round takes another turn with the news that President Ali Abdullah Saleh has fled to Saudi Arabia. He has been promising to depart his role, if not his country, for some time now — but the wounds he allegedly sustained after an attack on his compound may have forced the issue. There’s always the possibility that he could return to Yemen after his treatment across the border, although it’s an unlikely prospect. The Saudis have already gone out of their way by granting this brutal dicatator some degree of clemency, without foisting him back upon his country. And Saleh will already have lost power and influence by