Theresa may

If you wish to understand this government you might begin with Robert Conquest’s third law of politics. Namely, that ‘The simplest way to explain the behaviour of any bureaucratic organisation is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies’. This is certainly a more plausible hypothesis than any obviously available alternative. Indeed, there are times when you begin to think this government’s mission must be to persuade us that, contrary to the evidence hitherto presented, a government led by Jeremy Corbyn might be no bad thing. Or, at any rate, no worse than the government we have now.  Take Liam Fox and Boris Johnson, for instance,

Could the Conservatives crash out of government in the next few months? That’s certainly a prospect that Theresa May’s allies want to talk up in order to scare would-be supporters of Anna Soubry’s amendment on Britain staying in ‘a’ customs union after Brexit. We discuss whether making the amendment a confidence issue is really the smartest move on our latest Coffee House Shots podcast – and in today’s Evening Standard I report that Remainers really do think the whips would be calling their bluff by adopting this strategy. But I’ve also picked up an interesting theory doing the rounds among would-be rebels, which is that Theresa May will use her

Although Theresa May’s Cabinet has finally managed to reach a loose agreement on what they would like to achieve from the upcoming negotiations, the Prime Minister’s troubles look set to continue for the foreseeable. With Jeremy Corbyn expected to confirm that his party backs the UK staying in ‘a’ customs union post-Brexit, there’s growing concern in Whitehall that May’s government could collapse this year. The most imminent threat comes from the Remain side of her party. The Sunday Times reports that Julian Smith, the chief whip, told May there is a ‘very real threat’ that Labour could unite with 15 to 20 Tory rebels to defeat the government on their decision to

Could domestic abuse be the latest policy area to fall foul of the government’s inability to get anything done? It certainly seemed so yesterday when Theresa May told MPs at PMQs that the planned Domestic Violence Bill would not be published in draft form in the next few weeks, as ministers had previously suggested, but that there would be a consultation first. I say in the Sun today that this means we won’t see even the draft legislation until the autumn, and so the full bill will come still later. On one level, announcing a full public consultation on the new legislation before going to a draft bill before legislating

Bit of a rum PMQs today. Jeremy Corbyn, who has always loathed the EU and now pretends to admire it, asked May about Brexit. May, who has always admired the EU and now pretends to loathe it, fobbed him off with glib sound-bites. ‘Take back control of our borders,’ ‘protect workers’ rights,’ and so on. Corbyn asked a long question about the Government’s ‘desired outcome’. He got a four-word answer: ‘A bespoke economic partnership.’ Mr Speaker decided that he should be the star-turn today. Perhaps he sought to wow a posse of French MPs who were witnessing the bun-fight from the gallery. Quelling an early outbreak of shouting, the Speaker

I don’t really object to bad policy, it’s the rotten politics I can’t stand. There would be something almost amusing about a Conservative prime minister gravely intoning, in effect, ‘Labour are right; please don’t vote for them’ if it weren’t so head-thuddingly stupid.  Remarkably, however, this is the position into which Theresa May has put herself. Labour’s policy on university tuition fees may be a) ruinously expensive and b) a boon to the most affluent but it is c) easily understood. Labour would – or, rather, say they would – scrap tuition fees.  Responding to this – and, more broadly to their problem with ‘younger’ voters (i.e., anyone under 50)

That the Tories are having to shift their policymaking far left even of the Milibandesque positions that Theresa May took before the snap election is quite obvious. Today’s education speech by the Prime Minister involved an admission that the current system, drawn up by the Conservatives in coalition, isn’t working. The problems that the Tories have noticed with that system are largely political, but that’s not to say that there aren’t flaws in the details, too. But it’s not just on tuition fees that the party is having to change its tune from its time in government under David Cameron and George Osborne. Firstly, the Conservatives very rarely mention the

Here we go again. During the last Conservative leadership campaign, Andrea Leadsom came under fire for suggesting that having children made her a better choice to be prime minister than Theresa May. In an interview with the Times, the mother of three said having children meant she had ‘a very real stake’ in Britain’s future. The furore over Leadsom’s comments was a contributing factor in her decision to pull out of the contest. Now it seems that Sarah Champion has taken a lesson from the Leadsom rule book. In an interview with the House magazine, the Labour MP suggests that tackling child sexual abuse has taken a back seat since Theresa

As Brexit tensions continue to simmer in the Conservative party, the May local elections look to be the next big danger point for Theresa May. MPs who are losing patience with the Prime Minister fear that any move now would be near impossible to justify to the public when the Tories remain neck-and-neck with Labour in the polls. The thinking goes that disappointing results in the local elections could provide the perfect cover to oust May from her position. It’s true that disappointing results look likely. In London, the Tories expect a bloodbath, with elections analyst Lord Hayward predicting that the party could lose more than half of their London

Sometimes as an investor, you wish your Prime Minister or President would keep their thoughts to themselves. Perhaps hold off on that keynote speech about Brexit? Brush over that State of the Union address? Why? You may ask. Because it plays havoc with your investment strategy, that’s why. And I don’t think the likes of Theresa May and Donald Trump realise what they might be doing to someone’s investment portfolio. The research from spread-betting firm ETX Capital shows that large fluctuations in the value of the pound can be seen after Mrs May’s speeches. Source: ETX Capital Last year, the pound was weak against a basket of currencies, including the

When David Cameron and George Osborne were in government, the pair heralded a new ‘golden era’ where the UK would be China’s ‘best partner in the West’. However, since Theresa May moved into No 10, questions have been raised about the health of this partnership. Osborne ally Lord O’Neill has criticised May for a focus on New Zealand when the priority should be China. Meanwhile, just last week Osborne appeared underwhelmed by May’s trip to China – telling the Today programme that she needed ‘a plan to engage with the rest of the world like China’. Further still, the paper Osborne edits – the Evening Standard – claimed that May had held a

Theresa May’s MPs are now constantly pressuring her to come up with a ‘vision’ of what she wants to do, whether it be on Brexit or on the domestic front. Those who are more sympathetic to the Prime Minister’s caution, though, argue that her vision is constrained by the parliamentary arithmetic. Why try something that just isn’t going to get through the House of Commons? One answer would be that May wouldn’t lose all that much by trying and failing than she thinks. As I wrote last week, she is currently more in danger of weakening her authority by not trying at all. But another is that the Prime Minister