Tv

Friday

David Blackburn

Polls the morning after, and where next for Cameron?

With the exception of the Daily Mirror, the pundits’ concede that David Cameron and Gordon Brown closed the gap on Nick Clegg, but not decisively. That has transferred to the ‘who won the debate’ polls. Populus Cameron 37 percent (Up 15) Clegg 36 percent  (Down 25) Brown 27 percent  (Up 10) ICM Clegg 33 percent Brown 29 percent Cameron 29 percent Com Res Clegg 33 percent (Down 13) Cameron 30 percent (Up 4) Brown 30 percent (Up 10) You Gov Cameron 36 percent (Up 7) Clegg 32 percent  (Down 18) Brown 29 percent (Up 10) Angus Reid Clegg 33 percent (Down 15) Cameron 32 percent (Up 12) Brown 23 percent

Daniel Korski

Next time, do a Bill

So it’s all down to the next debate. The election will probably be decided in 90 minutes, each segment of 20 seconds for every day of a new five-year mandate. In which case, what is the one thing David Cameron will need to take away from last night’s debate, his “take-home”, as a US analyst might call it, to win decisively and get into the 37, 38, 39 percent range that he needs for the Tories to win a majority? He needs to do a Bill. Clinton, that is. Last night, the Tory leader did far better than in the previous debate. He started a bit slowly, and improved as

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Cameron starts to pull the Tory campaign out of the fire

The headlines will be “score draw”, but I’d say Cameron won – and comfortably. I write this as someone who could have happily have sunk a few pins into a voodoo doll of David Cameron earlier on this evening – for taking the Conservatives (and Britain) to this appalling point where he may yet lose the election. But he raised his game, substantially. At best, he spoke with passion and authenticity. This time, he looked like he was fighting for his political life, which (of course) he is. Things are looking up. Here’s my participant-by-participant verdict: Brown Brown was his normal automaton self. He does tend to mangle his words,

Thursday

James Forsyth

Cameron is much improved – but the Lib Dem bubble hasn’t burst

It seems that the general election of 2010 will turn on 90 minutes next Thursday. David Cameron was far better tonight than he was last week. This time he managed to bracket Brown and Clegg together and had the moment of the debate when he called Brown out on Labour’s leaflets claiming the Tories would scrap various things that pensioners currently get free. If there was a YouTube moment in the debate, it was that exchange when Brown said he didn’t authorise the leaflets making these claims. The Tory press team then delighted in pointing to a Labour party political broadcast where they had suggested the Tories would take away

Peter Hoskin

Has Brown blown it?

Gordon just can’t help himself, can he?  There can’t be a simple dividing line – oh no.  It has to be one built on exaggerations, half-truths and plain lies.  So it has always been with his brand of government, and for much of the time – think cuts vs investment – it has worked in his favour.  But tonight, despite a surprisingly punchy performance from the PM, it seems to have backfired dreadfully. The Tories are going big on those misleading Labour leaflets – and rightly so.  Brown denied that he authorised them.  But the fact that a Labour party political broadcast made similar claims about the Tories and old-age

Peter Hoskin

Cameron’s evening – as he and Brown fight back against the Clegg surge

Well, one thing was clear: Brown and Cameron have both been at the textbooks, staying behind for extra classes, and learning the lessons of last week.  They came into this TV debate prepared.  Not just for the very fact of Nick Clegg, but with strategies and soundbites to slow his advance.  The result was a more passionate and confrontational show than I expected. Brown was the biggest surprise on the night.  Sure, you have to apply the usual caveats and parameters: he is Gordon Brown, and being disingenuous and deluded is what he does.  But, all that considered, he was uncharacteristically sprightly, I thought.  His little prepared quips were half-way

Daniel Korski

Memo to Adam Boulton: It’s about detail

Since the last thing David Cameron is likely to do is surf the web for advice for tonight’s debate, Nick Clegg needs no help and Gordon Brown deserves none, I will give my (again, unsolicited but free) advice to Adam Boulton, the moderator of tonight’s Sky debate. Ask for details. The leaders have rehearsed top-level answers and can express them confidently and fluently. But we need to know if there is anything underneath the surface, beyond the well-crafted lines. Take Afghanistan. They will all say that the fight is important, that a well-resourced military effort is key but will not be enough and that a politico-economic strategy is needed. Gordon

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tonight’s tactical battle

If seven days ago, anyone had suggested that the first debate would propel Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems to the top of the polls we’d all have thought that their lunch had gone on rather too long. But that’s what happened. Tonight, the questions are whether Gordon Brown reprises his ‘I agree with Nick’ routine or tries to check Clegg’s momentum and whether Cameron can turn in the kind of performance that begins to turn things round for him.   Cameron shouldn’t be angry tonight. But he does need to bracket Brown and Clegg together at every opportunity. When three people are debating, the person who does the best

Peter Hoskin

Team Brown playing the same old tunes

The strange thing about last week’s TV debate is that, for all its transformative power, it doesn’t seem to have changed Labour’s campaign strategy in any fundamental way.  Team Brown were hoping for a hung Parliament, and courting the Lib Dems, before last week.  And, as Peter Mandelson demonstrated earlier, they’re still doing the same now.  The only difference is that it’s more likely their wishes will come true. But this creates problems for Brown so far as tonight’s TV debate and the rest of the election are concerned.  His instinct may well be to repeat the “I agree with Nick” positioning of last week.  But this has already been

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Numbers which show why the TV debates are priceless for Nick Clegg

How valuable was the TV debate to the Lib Dems?  Well, we’ve seen the poll numbers, of course.  But the Electoral Commission has just released some figures which shine a different light on proceedings.  They show that the Tories received party donations totalling £1.46m in the first week of the campaign.  Labour, nearly £800k.  And the Lib Dems were way, way behind on £20,000.  So, Clegg & Co. are heavily outgunned financially – but they’ve still had the biggest upsurge in publicity and popularity. True, donations to the Lib Dems have risen dramatically since the TV debate – but it’s still unlikely that they’ll reach Tory, or even Labour, levels

Monday

James Forsyth

The growing sense that the worst is behind the Tories

These have been a grim few days for the Conservative party. But there is a sense, just a sense mind, that the worst might be behind them. Today’s ICM poll shows the Lib Dems still surging, up 3 to 30, but Tory support is only down one from Sunday’s ICM poll to 33. Labour is in third on 28, down one. Obviously, these polls numbers would have been considered pretty darn awful a week ago and no one would pretend that they are what the Tories would like to see right now. But they are not as bad as some feared they might be and as Julian Glover writes, “the

Friday

Peter Hoskin

The case for Nick Clegg

Ok, this won’t be one of my more popular opinions, but here goes … Nick Clegg is a Good Politician.  And I don’t mean that in some Machiavellian sense – although, for all I know, that might be true.  But, rather, that he’s got some decent ideas and ideals, and he presents them convincingly.  This is why he deserved his victory in yesterday’s TV debate.  It wasn’t the novelty factor, as Fraser claimed last night.  It wasn’t even really his plague-on-both-your-houses positioning.  No, last night was the culmination of two years in which – politically speaking – Clegg has kneaded and pulled his party into one which can stand, unashamed, on a

David Blackburn

What the polls say about the leaders’ debate

More concrete information will emerge over the next few days, and it may be sensible to reserve judgement until then. But the polling data we have so far is unanimous: Nick Clegg walked it. Here are some of the polls: YouGov: Who performed best in the TV debates? Clegg: 51 percent Cameron: 29 percent Brown: 19 percent Com Res: Who won the debate? Clegg: 46 percent Cameron: 26 percent Brown 20: percent Populus: Who won the leaders’ debate? Clegg 61: percent Cameron: 22 percent Brown 17: percent Angus Reid: Who came out on top? Clegg: 48 percent Cameron: 20 percent Brown: 18 percent PS: As ever, Anthony Wells’s analysis is

Peter Hoskin

So what’s changed?

The question is: how much has really changed after last night?  And the answer is hard to pin down.  There are the plastic, surface changes, of course.  Nick Clegg may now be recognised by more that one-third of the nation.  His party will probably come under greater scrutiny from the media and his opponents.  And the leaders’ debate is here to stay; a defining feature of this election which will become a standard feature of future contests. But what about deeper change?  Well, I can understand the argument – made punchily by Gideon Rachman here – that this will increase the likelihood of a hung Parliament.  That’s probably true.  But

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

The novelty of Clegg wins it for him

“I agree with Nick”, said Brown – and, as it turned out, so did most of the people YouGov polled. Brown lived right down to expectations, Cameron lived up to them (but didn’t exceed them). Few would have had any expectations from Clegg: what we political pundits know to be his clichés will be heard for the first time in many living rooms tonight. Each used tactics we’re familiar with. Brown opened his verbal machine gun, and sought to mow down the audience (they surrendered early on). David Cameron was fluent, articulate – as anyone who has followed politics had come to expect. But dazzling? No. He was subdued, seemed

Peter Hoskin

Nick Clegg triumphs – and Cameron gains – in the first TV debate

So, who won?  Well, hold your horses, dear CoffeeHouser.  First, it’s worth noting that that was a good shade more compelling than I thought it would be.  There were moments of heat, drama and political tension, of course.  But there was also a sprinkling of light as well.  I suspect anyone watching that would have picked up a working sense of the differences and similarities between the parties and their leaders. So, who won?  Well, it depends what you mean by “won”.  Nick Clegg certainly gained most from the evening.  He was confident, coherent and had a strong line on almost every policy area, whether you agreed with those lines

Peter Hoskin

Leaders’ debate – live blog

2207, PH: Well, we’ve just been through all that – and guess what’s leading the News at Ten.  Yep, the ash cloud… 2205, PH: And that’s it.  I’ll be writing a verdict post shortly. 2203, PH: And Cameron has pre-empted Brown’s statement well.  He says that the other two have tried to frighten the audience about the Tories – but “put hope before fear”.  His key message after that is about national insurance.  A solid closer from the Tory leader. 2201, PH: Classic Brown. He points the finger at the Tories, saying that they can’t match Labour’s guarantees and that they’d risk the recovery. I’m not sure this negative approach

Peter Hoskin

Take your seats

Right – the pizza has been ordered, my glass is overflowing with raspberry Ribena (New! And delicious!), and I’ve fired up the old cathode ray tubes. But, somehow, I’m still feeling quite ambivalent about tonight’s TV debate. Maybe it’s because I still suspect it will be a cautious affair – with neither side wanting to risk the kind of mistake which could define their evening. Maybe it’s because of the wall-to-wall coverage of the past few days. Or maybe it’s because the New York Times has a (deliciously arch) point when it writes that UK politics is finally “moving into the television age”. In the end, the most interesting thing

The Spectator

Covering the TV debate

We’ll be live-blogging tonight’s TV debate on Coffee House from 2030.  Do, please, join us then. And, in the meantime, over on our special election site Spectator Live, Spectator panellist Gaby Hinsliff has written about why she doesn’t think tonight’s debate will be a make or break moment.  And Reform’s Thomas Cawston has prepared a set of questions for the party leaders to answer.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Advantage Cameron | 15 April 2010

I’ve just been watching the feed coming out of the studio where the debate is taking place and what struck me was how much of an advantage his central position will give David Cameron. In all the shots of the studio, the middle lectern is where your eye is drawn first. The leaders, I’m told, have all had half an hour in there to familiarise themselves with the surroundings. They now appear to be white-washing parts of the studio.