Uk politics

Wednesday

Rupert Harrison

Are the Tories giving up on balancing the books?

Today’s budget forecasts a £20bn reduction in the tax receipts by 2021-22. That’s the cost of the productivity downgrade: The Treasury got a £9bn windfall this year from a lower borrowing forecast. That’s the same as the £9bn peak fiscal loosening in 2019-20: The £14bn higher borrowing by the end of the period is roughly the same as £13bn higher borrowing in 2019-20. But in 2019-20, most of that is £9bn of giveaways (which fall away in the final two years). By the end, the fiscal deterioration is, basically, lower tax receipts as a result of slower growth: So we have fiscal loosening and higher borrowing. Still, the deficit is

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Lurking in the Budget is a problem much bigger and badder than Brexit

My Budget reaction is mostly: Meh. By that, I mean this won’t really change the weather, though it might just gee up some despondent Tories, who are cheered by the Stamp Duty cut regardless of what the OBR and others have to say about it (in short, it’ll push up prices and only really help people who were already close to buying; it does nothing for the people for whom home-ownership really is a distant dream.) Perhaps the best encapsulation of this was offered to me recently by a ministerial friend who is not, let us say, ordinarily upbeat about the May Government and its prospects.  This afternoon, this governmental

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

Funeral Phil has a sense of comedy that goes unnoticed

Odd-looking chap, the chancellor. Give him a moustache and a top hat and he could be Neville Chamberlain. Or a funeral director. With his stooping frame and his watchful hook-nosed features he has the air of a vulture about to feast on carrion. But he struck a kindlier note at the Budget as he set out his vision of a thrusting, modern economy. ‘Every one of our citizens,’ he trilled, ‘can contribute to – and share in – the benefits of prosperity.’ The UK, he said, ‘is a beacon of creativity, a civilised and tolerant place that cares for the vulnerable and nurtures the talented.’ Was he practising a voice-over

The Spectator

Philip Hammond is not the man to take the battle to Jeremy Corbyn

Philip Hammond began his first Budget, in March, by playing down its importance — for his big ideas on fiscal policy, he suggested we would have to wait until the autumn. It was a wait which was very nearly extended to eternity as he narrowly avoided losing his job in a post–election reshuffle. We found out this week that it was a bluff: he doesn’t have many big ideas, just a selection of small ones. Which, under the circumstances, is something of a relief. The Chancellor is getting better at telling Britain’s story, boasting about record employment and how the best-paid 1 per cent pay 27 per cent of all

Matthew Lynn

Stamp duty was already a mess – but we just made it worse

We could have given them free Spotify subscriptions. Or Just Eat vouchers. Instead, the government’s pitch to Jezza-loving twenty-somethings was a cut in stamp duty for first-time buyers. The levy on buying a home will be abolished completely up to £300,000, and, for the trainee bankers and tech moguls buying in the better parts of London, the first three hundred grand when you are spending half a million will be let off the tax. On the surface, that might seem like a good wheeze. If young people are angry that they can’t get a first foot on the housing ladder, then it will now be a little easier for them.

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Corbyn’s anger gets the better of him in his Budget response

If we accept the usual caveat that it’s difficult for any Opposition leader, no matter how good, to respond well to a Budget straight after it has been delivered only in its broad-brush form, then we might conclude that Jeremy Corbyn’s response today was pretty good, all things considered. The Labour leader was angry and passionate, drawing a strong contrast with the endless wisecracks from Philip Hammond in his own statement. He decided to focus on how people would still be feeling after this Budget, which is a useful device when you simply have not had time to go through the small print that trips a chancellor up. He repeatedly

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The Budget shows the Tories are still ignoring some big problems

On Budget Day, MPs and journalists joke about it being a ‘quiet day’ and ‘not much going on’ as they pass one another in the corridors of Westminster (this is an accurate representation of how utterly hilarious the corridors of power normally are). Today’s Budget was in a number of respects rather quiet, especially in the things it totally missed out.  Philip Hammond didn’t even mention social care, despite the sector’s concerns about whether it can afford a massive back pay bill that has come up partly as a result of a court judgement and partly as a result of government dithering. This comes on top of the long-term sustainability

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Philip Hammond’s fiscal fix? A tax on cheap cider, fags and diesel cars

So where are the nasties? Philip Hammond’s Budget speech can be summed up as follows:  £2.8 billion for the NHS, £44 billion of capital funding and loan guarantees for housing, £400 million for a new charging infrastructure for electric cars, £2.3 billion investment in research and development, £1.5 billion worth of changes to Universal Credit, an extra £2 billion for Scotland – all to be paid for, apparently, with higher taxes on super-strength cider, fags, a few of the smokiest diesel cars and the end of indexation for allowances on corporate capital gains tax. A modern Budget would not be a Budget, of course, if it didn’t partially unravel thanks to

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Five things you need to know about Hammond’s Budget

After months of Tory nerves, Philip Hammond has just finished presenting his Autumn Budget in the Chamber. Among the main giveaways, the Chancellor announced more funding for the NHS as well as pitching to the young with his housing proposals and 18-30 railcard. He also announced measures to ease out the rollout of Universal Credit – including a one week reduction to the wait time. However, although the Chancellor was at pains to sound optimistic and shake off his Eeyore image, this was made difficult thanks to some grim statistics from the OBR. The OBR has revised down its forecast for annual growth quite significantly –  lower than envisaged after the Brexit

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Jeremy Corbyn says the B word during PMQs

Jeremy Corbyn rarely talks about Brexit at Prime Minister’s Questions, and it is interesting that he chose today’s session, which will get little attention as a result of the Budget, to probe Theresa May on the matter. The Labour leader did have a good stint, quoting a number of European negotiators, Tory backbenchers and Cabinet Ministers who have made comments to the effect that the British government doesn’t know what it is doing on Brexit. He also accused the Tories of blocking measures protecting workers’ rights and acknowledging that animals are sentient beings. But Theresa May was on good form, too, continuing to appear as though she is regaining her

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

Stop Funding Hate has a simple aim: political censorship

Here’s a law of politics that is about as cast-iron as a law of politics can be: people who hate tabloid newspapers are snobs. Every time. Scratch a Daily Mail basher or those people who seethe daily about the Sun and you will find someone who’s really just scared of the throng and of what all this tabloid fare is doing to their brains. From Nietzsche, who said a mass newspaper is what happens when the ‘rabble… vomit their bile’, to Noam Chomsky, who says popular papers ‘dull people’s brains’, to the feminist campaign against Page 3, which said the Sun’s half-clad ladies ‘conditioned’ men to have ‘negative attitudes’ towards women,

The Spectator

Live: Autumn Budget 2017

Philip Hammond avoided any disasters in his second budget of 2017. Here are the headline announcements: Growth forecasts downgraded: Britain’s economy is now expected to grow by 1.5 per cent in 2017, down from the prediction of 2 per cent made in March Stamp duty scrapped for first time buyers on homes costing up to £300,000 £3bn set aside for Brexit preparations Millenials’ railcard confirmed; National Living Wage up; VAT threshold for small businesses maintained; £2.8bn more for the NHS; 100 per cent council tax on empty homes; target to build 300,000 new homes by 2020s Tobacco duty up; beer and wine duty frozen; No fuel duty rise for petrol and

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Hammond must beware the danger of playing it safe

Philip Hammond’s second Budget of the year will mean that the Chancellor has another ‘bite at a not especially flavoursome cherry’, says the Daily Telegraph. The last time, his announcements ‘misfired’; since then Hammond’s ‘room for manoeuvre’ has become even more limited. This means that many in the Tory ranks are not filled with ‘great expectations’ about what Hammond might say and instead, says the Telegraph, they ’are just anxious to see Mr Hammond through the day without mishap’. But playing it safe won’t be enough for the Tories, according to the paper, which argues in its editorial that it doing so would ‘throw away the opportunity’ for the government to

Steerpike Steerpike

Revealed: Universal Credit director wins award for… project management

You don’t have to be a member of Her Majesty’s Opposition to conclude that something has gone wrong with the Universal Credit rollout. After a series of issues including a six week wait for first payment and an expensive helpline to supposedly deal with said issues, the government is under pressure to put the scheme on pause. Matters weren’t helped in recent weeks when Neil Couling – the man in charge of the Universal Credit programme – tweeted pictures of cakes celebrating the scheme at a time when some claimants on are said to be living on the breadline as a result of the bungled rollout. So, Mr S was curious

Tuesday

Steerpike

Watch: David Davis crashes out

David Davis has just given a speech on the Brexit transition period – intended to prevent Britain from crashing out of the EU in a disorderly manner. But at the end of his address, it seems that he was personally advocating a different type of transition. As Davis said his goodbyes, he took a tumble. Mr S hopes it’s not a sign of things to come…

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Why the millennials’ railcard isn’t such a bad idea

It’s Budget day tomorrow and there’s growing concern among Tories that the Chancellor may be about to bungle the Budget. Only rather than housing, the NHS or education, the issue that has got everyone hot and bothered is a plan for an 18-30 railcard. Nicknamed the millennials’ card, the Chancellor is expected to announce that discounted train travel will be extended to people up to 30-years-old. Currently, the young persons’ railcard – which costs about £30 and means a third off ticket fares – is just for the 16-25 age bracket. The move comes after a trial of the 26-30 year-olds card took place in East Anglia which led the Treasury

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: The EU is in the grip of chaos

Donald Tusk’s jibe that Britain was no longer attempting to have its cake and eat it in Brexit talks was a clear dig at the Foreign Secretary. But now the EU is guilty of adopting the same approach, according to the Sun. Michel Barnier said yesterday that ‘he wants all his demands met’ on various issues, and also ‘wants a monstrous exit bung from Britain’. Theresa May has reportedly received the backing of her Cabinet to up this payment to £40bn. Yet this ‘won’t nearly suffice’ for the EU, says the Sun. And even if Brussels does agree, what will we get in return? ‘A trade deal which would still

Steerpike Steerpike

The tin-eared chancellor: Philip Hammond’s ten worst gaffes

Tomorrow is D-day for Philip Hammond. As the Chancellor puts the finishing touches to his Budget, Tory MPs wait nervously – hoping it will be a day free of gaffes. Unfortunately, history suggests that this is unlikely. Over the years Hammond has earned a reputation for being tin-eared and ham-fisted. To get readers in the mood for his Budget, Mr S has compiled a list of the Chancellor’s worst gaffes: 1. There are no unemployed people Just this weekend, Hammond proved why he makes his colleagues nervous. Appearing on the Andrew Marr show, the Chancellor managed to turn one of his party’s top achievements into a toxic issue. Asked about

Steerpike Steerpike

Sarah Olney causes a stir at Lib Dem HQ

Oh dear. Trouble is brewing at Lib Dem HQ over Sarah Olney. After losing her seat by 45 votes in the snap election, Olney was quickly appointed as Vince Cable’s Chief of Staff – beating several more conventional candidates (i.e. trained press officers) to the coveted job. At the time, Olney made a verbal agreement with Cable that she would not stand as a Parliamentary candidate – given that this would mean she would be unable to continue as Chief of Staff. So there was much surprise this month when Olney stepped down from the role so she could campaign to retake her old seat. At the time, Vince Cable

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Atkins’ confident start as a minister bodes well for tricky bill

Vicky Atkins was the first MP from the 2015 intake to become a minister, and had been preparing assiduously for doing so. She asked loyal questions of the Prime Minister and beavered away on the Home Affairs Committee and the joint committee examining the Draft Investigatory Powers Bill. But it was obvious that this very capable backbencher wanted to join the government – and that she was very likely to do well as a minister. Today’s Home Office questions marked her first outing on the frontbench in the Commons – and therefore the first glimpse of what someone who has been auditioning to be a minister is going to be