Uk politics

Wednesday

Alex Massie

Scottish Independence: The Cost of Living Like This

Yippee! The number-crunching boffins are at war again. The UK and Scottish governments have today released rival forecasts for life in an independent Scotland. It will not surprise you that the UK government’s projections run towards the pessimistic side of the ledger while their opponents in Edinburgh take a sunnier view of Scotland’s future economic circumstances and performance. Fancy that! The Scottish government suggests there might be £5bn windfall from independence; the UK government reckons each Scot receives a ‘Union dividend’ worth something like £1,400 a year.  They can’t both be right. In fact the probability is they are both wrong. That is, Scotland’s fiscal and economic position would be

Steerpike Steerpike

Ukip pin Newark hope on data access

Ukip types, already with a spring in their step this week, are further buoyed by the fact that they will be going into the Newark by-election with data up their sleeves. The Tory machine is in full swing on the ground, but the playing field has been levelled. Whereas in previous by-elections Farage turned up to the pub or hung about meeting people in the market square, Newark will be different. Thanks to the proximity of the crunch Nottinghamshire ballot to the European and local elections, the self-styled ‘people’s army’ will be on an equal footing with the embedded local Tories, as they will be able to see exactly who

Tuesday

Charlotte Henry

Who is behind the campaign to oust Nick Clegg?

Lord Oakeshott has gone under the radar, as speculation mounts about his involvement in a bid to oust party leader Nick Clegg. Many believe he is responsible for commissioning a poll that appeared in today’s Guardian, showing that Clegg and other Lib Dems could lose their Commons seats if he remains leader. Looking through the House of Lords Register of Members’ interests, it’s clear that Oakeshott is very rich indeed, boasting numerous Directorships and shareholdings. He certainly has the financial clout to fund such a poll. The register reveals something else, too: that Oakeshott has one member of staff, called Naomi Smith. She confirmed to me that she is ‘a

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Michael Gove hasn’t banned Steinbeck – but perhaps he should have.

I’ve never quite understood why so many people hate Michael Gove. I mean, really hate him. To my mind his heart is so obviously in the right place that I’m happy to forgive him his occasional excesses. It may not quite be the case that anyone who so thoroughly upsets the teaching establishment must be doing something right but it is very plainly something more likely to be right than wrong. Which, I suppose, means I do understand why so many people hate the Education Secretary. As the left often reminds us (albeit usually tediously) speaking truth to power is rarely popular. But no, Michael Gove has not banned  the teaching of

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Miliband’s sense of humour failure over relatively helpful question

Ed Miliband has just delivered his post-European and local elections comeback speech in Thurrock, to show that he’s not afraid to confront the challenges that Labour still faces in the run-up to 2015. I’ll post on the details of the speech and what it means shortly, but one exchange in the Q&A told us quite a lot not just about Miliband but politicians in general. Here is a video clip: And here is the transcript: Journalist: ‘Peter Dominiczak from the Telegraph. You’ve been attacked in your party for being too wordy and too academic. I wondered if you could give us here today just one word that defines your leadership

Sebastian Payne

Briefing: what you need to know about that leaked Lib Dem poll

Will Nick Clegg hold onto his Sheffield Hallam seat next year? No, according to internal Lib Dem polling which has been leaked to the Guardian. ICM have now released the full tables, which outline the fight Clegg and the Lib Dems face in 2015. It’s worth noting sample sizes are small — 500 were polled in each seat compared to 1,000 in Ashcroft survey this weekend. But here are the most important details: While Clegg held onto his seat comfortably with 53 per cent of the vote in 2010, the ICM snapshot suggests that if there was a general election tomorrow, Clegg would come third behind Labour and the Tories: [datawrapper

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Polling council investigates anonymous Lib Dem seats survey

Who is the mysterious ‘Lib Dem supporter’ behind the ICM poll showing that the Lib Dems would fare very badly next year if Nick Clegg remains leader? ICM have published the poll tables, saying only that the commissioning client is a ‘member of the Liberal Democrats’. The British Polling Council rules state that its members must refer to the ‘client commissioning the survey’, and there is some suggestion that simply saying the client is a Lib Dem member isn’t quite sufficient. I’ve spoken to the BPC’s Secretary Nick Moon, who says the Council is examining ICM’s disclosure to see whether it complies with the rules. He says: ‘It is a

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Captain Britannia: Nigel Farage is the Union’s Useful Secret Weapon

Your enemy’s enemy is not necessarily your friend. That is something forgotten too easily. Nevertheless, though he may not be your friend he may, for a time at least, be your ally. And so it came to pass that Nigel Farage is, for the time being, Labour’s new best chum. In Scotland, that is. The Tories are quite pleased with him too and, if anyone could find them, perhaps the Liberal Democrats would be too. Of course, officially, there is much tut-tutting and hand-wringing over Ukip’s success in Scotland. We’re all supposed to be simply appalled that these fruitcakes have won a seat in the European parliament. Terrible stuff. Come

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Can Nick Clegg survive his party’s wrath?

Will Nick Clegg survive his mauling in the European elections? The front pages this morning don’t do the Lib Dem leader any favours – although his main leadership rivals, Tim Farron and Vince Cable, did by pledging their loyalty to him. There is considerable suspicion in the party that the polling on the Guardian front page was commissioned by one of Cable’s allies, with or without the Business Secretary’s knowledge or approval. It’s certainly had more impact than an open letter or pithy op-ed, and whoever the ‘Lib Dem supporter’ responsible for the leak is, they’re certainly not a Nick Clegg supporter. Privately, Clegg has admitted that he wishes his

Monday

Sebastian Payne

Tower Hamlets — London’s rotten borough

What is going on in Tower Hamlets? Three days after the counting began, the borough has yet to return a complete set of results from Thursday’s elections. Counting for the Bromley South ward has been stopped for a second time today, resuming in the morning. Tower Hamlets Council explained in a statement ‘the result is looking very close in this ward and accuracy is of paramount concern’. Few would probably have noticed, were it not for Tower Hamlets holding up the rest of London announcing its results for the European elections. While the rest of the country reported its results hours before, Tower Hamlets was delayed due to a new

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The real sign of a professional Ukip

Nigel Farage hasn’t just been enjoying today, he’s been using it as a springboard for a professional, grown-up Ukip. He told a press conference in London that his party would challenge Ed Miliband’s focus on the cost-of-living crisis and do so in the Labour leader’s own town. He also said the party had been doing ‘substantial work on the NHS’. Even though he’s had a torrid few weeks of scrutiny on every reach of his party and his own views, you can’t fault Nigel Farage for continuing to plug away at trying to make his party grow up. But while more prominent policies than just Europe are an important part

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Vince Cable breaks his silence

Vince Cable, definitely not in the Team Nick camp, has finally broken his silence from a trade visit in China to defend his colleague. In the past few minutes the Business Secretary has released this statement: ‘These were exceptionally disappointing results for the party. Many hard working Liberal Democrats, who gave this fight everything they had and then lost their seats, are feeling frustrated and disheartened and we all understand that. ‘Nick did a bold thing in standing up to the eurosceptic wave which has engulfed much of continental Europe. We are the only party to have taken that on and he personally deserves tremendous credit for that. There is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Nick Clegg defends his leadership and the Coalition

A visibly tired Nick Clegg has just done his first post-European Election TV interview. Clegg conceded that the Liberal Democrats had taken a ‘bigger hit in the ballot box’ than he expected they would when he took them into coalition. But he made clear he wasn’t quitting and that he thought it would be a massive mistake for the party to leave the Coalition now as its ‘big judgments were being vindicated’. listen to ‘Nick Clegg: We’re not going to lose our nerve’ on Audioboo Clegg attempted to explain the scale of the defeat to his party by saying that the Liberal Democrats were hit by the double-whammy of being

Douglas Murray

Will Labour and the Conservatives finally discuss the concerns Ukip has raised?

Ukip have come top of the polls for the UK in the EU elections. Now which of the two following scenarios might we most likely expect from the other parties? Might the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties, along with their amazingly loyal chorus-line in the British media, wake up sincerely believing that a ‘racist’ political party is now the biggest UK party in the EU? Do you think they will escalate a war against that party and the public who voted for them, such as would only be appropriate from anyone who actually believed that this country was now dominated and — in Brussels at least — led by

James Forsyth James Forsyth

David Cameron has fewer problems than Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg this morning

For more than year Westminster has assumed that David Cameron would have a Tory crisis to deal with after the European Elections. Whenever anyone remarked on the Tories unifying, someone would say ‘well, wait until after the Euros’. The conventional wisdom was that the Tories coming third would lead to a slew of senior Tories pushing for more robust policies on immigration and Europe and more and more Tory MPs calling for a pact with Ukip. But this morning, Cameron has fewer problems than either Ed Miliband or Nick Clegg. The fact that the Tory party has responded so calmly to coming third in a nationwide election for the first

James Forsyth James Forsyth

It was the immigration issue wot won it for Ukip

Ukip have triumphed in the UK European Elections. The BBC project that Ukip’s national share of the vote will be 28 per cent ahead of Labour on 25 per cent and the Tories on 24 per cent with the Greens on 8 per cent beating the Lib Dems who are on the 7 per cent into 4th. This is the first time that anyone other than Labour or the Conservatives has won a nationwide election in more than a century. Nigel Farage and his party has given the British political system a mighty shake this morning. They have demonstrated that, in these elections at least, they can put together a coalition

Sunday

James Forsyth

The three things keeping Nick Clegg safe

This weekend was always going to be an unpleasant one for Nick Clegg. The delay between the council results on Friday and tonight’s European Election count meant that the pain was going to be drawn out for the Liberal Democrats, giving activists plenty of time to vent their anger at the leadership. So far, the anti-Clegg mutterings have been fairly limited. There are no big beasts calling for him to go. This could change after tonight’s results, especially if the Lib Dems come behind the Greens. But I suspect that three things will keep Clegg safe. 1). He’s made very clear he won’t go without a fight. Trying to force

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Candidate fury at CCHQ campaign demands

Conservative MPs and candidates are, it’s fair to say, pretty exhausted this afternoon after last-minute campaigning for the local and European elections and all-nighters watching the results come in. But with the Newark by-election drawing closer, they’re not flopping into their beds just yet. All candidates have been summoned to a 10am briefing in Newark on Sunday. They were only told on Monday that the meeting was taking place, and that it was compulsory, with Grant Shapps demanding a personal explanation from those who cannot make it. The email says: ‘There will be a briefing meeting for everyone on the Candidates List on Sunday 25th May at 10.00 am in