Uk politics

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Knives out for Warsi in reshuffle

After a few weeks of Boris vs George, Conservatives are now starting to gossip about something a little more immediate: a post-European elections reshuffle. I understand that the Prime Minister is currently experiencing concerted lobbying from many ministers and backbenchers to remove Baroness Warsi from her post as ‘senior minister of state’ after her decision to wave about a front page on the ‘Eton Mess’ in Number 10 on ITV’s The Agenda a few weeks ago. There was fury at a senior level in the Conservative party about Warsi’s behaviour: she was punching her party’s bruise on class. One minister says: ‘She should be dropped down a hole and a

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Peers launch bid to neuter controversial ‘stateless’ plan in Immigration Bill

Remember that rather curious change to the Immigration Bill that would render foreign-born terror suspects ‘stateless’ that ministers managed to sneak through while most MPs were in a tizz about Dominic Raab? Well, it’s facing its first major battle in the House of Lords soon, with a group of peers tabling an amendment which would in effect neuter it or spark a row in the Commons. The new clause, tabled by crossbenchers Lord Pannick and Lord Brown, Lib Dem former Director of Public Prosecutions Lord Macdonald and Labour’s Baroness Smith, proposes setting up a committee of MPs and peers to consider whether the stateless policy should go ahead. This proposal

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Cameron’s slow mission to convince sceptics at home and in Europe

Today’s joint FT article by George Osborne and Wolfgang Schäuble is yet another exhibit for David Cameron to wave at critics of his EU policy. While Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg fight over In or Out with no chance of leading the government that presents that choice to the British people (read Fraser’s Telegraph column on this), David Cameron can say that he is inching closer to winning debates, point by point, with European leaders. Today’s article contains the important acceptance that non-eurozone countries should be protected rather than disadvantaged by treaty change: ‘A stable euro is good for the global economy, and especially for Europe. The crisis has shown that

Thursday

Sebastian Payne

Will Nick and Nigel be sidelined from the 2015 TV debates?

Has last night’s debate affected Nigel Farage’s chances of being involved in the general election TV debates? Although the broadcasters and political parties have yet to agree any dates or formats, the precedent has been set and the public will be expecting them. With weasel words from No.10 and a bullish attitude from some broadcasters, there’s a long way to go before an agreement is made. The public already have a clear idea of what they expect. According to the last YouGov polling on the subject, nearly half believe there should be a four-way debate between Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage: [datawrapper chart=”http://charts.spectator.co.uk/chart/noqHV/”] It’ll be interesting to see whether the

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Boris should call a referendum

Everyone can see that the West has no idea what to do about Russian power in the Ukraine. Britain, in particular, is at the margins. It is time for the Mayor of London to fulfil his historic role of stealing a march on more conventional politicians. Boris should take a leaf out of President Putin’s book and call a referendum of Londoners. He should ask them whether they would like all Russian housing in London to be seized, and be inhabited, instead, by British families. I predict a Yes vote whose percentage would exceed even that of the recent Crimean plebiscite. Obviously the Mayor, unlike Putin, has no military forces

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Clegg and Farage’s real mission: getting their voters to turn up

‘You guys always love the zero sum game, you know, politics as Premier League football,’ Paddy Ashdown said this morning when asked whether he accepted whether his leader had lost last night’s LBC debate on Europe. This sounded ridiculous initially: of course politics is like Premier League football. The party that comes second in a general election doesn’t skip away arguing that it was the taking part that counts, it retreats to lick its wounds. listen to ‘Lord Ashdown on the Nick vs Nigel debate’ on Audioboo

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Atos leaves disability test contract early: but will it change anything?

The Work and Pensions department has this morning announced that Atos, the provider of the Work Capability Assessments which determine whether a benefit claimant is fit for work, is leaving its contract early. The company, which had been underperforming on the contract for a while, was supposed to carry out the WCA until August 2015, but has made a ‘substantial financial settlement’ to DWP. Mike Penning has emphasised this in his reaction to the announcement, saying: ‘I am pleased to confirm that Atos will not receive a single penny of compensation from the taxpayer for the early termination of their contract, quite the contrary, Atos has made a substantial financial

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Alex Salmond is not a Nazi. He’s not even a Fascist.

Every so often you come across an article so bizarre it forces you to re-examine long-held certainties on a subject about which you happen to be tolerably well-informed. This year that’s Scotland and her independence referendum and this time the article in question is Simon Winder’s epistle in the latest edition of Standpoint. Having duly re-examined everything I conclude that it is the maddest article I’ve read this year. So bonkers – really, not too strong a term – that you wonder what the magazine’s editors were thinking when they agreed to publish it. They have every right to do so, of course, and publication does not equal endorsement. But

Sebastian Payne

Podcast: Reforming Islam, Ed Miliband on the rocks and teaching French

Can Islam ever be reformed and reclaimed from the fanatics? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, the Quilliam Foundation’s founder Maajid Nawaz argues it most certainly can. Discussing this week’s cover feature with Freddy Gray, Maajid questions why the British media thinks there is only one strain of thought in Islam. How does seeking out a singular ‘Muslim opinion’ lead to a spiral towards regressive conservatism? How can the vocal reformers make a difference when they are frequently outnumbered? James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman also discuss whether Ed Miliband’s luck has run out. Labour’s lacklustre response to the budget appears to have put Miliband on the back foot, but

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Nigel Farage wins LBC debate but will he regret ‘blood on their hands’ comment?

Tonight’s YouGov poll says that Nigel Farage won the debate with Nick Clegg by 57 per cent to 37 per cent. But, intriguingly, the plurality of those polled said that they’d vote to stay in the EU. For Farage, the hope has to be that this victory gives him back some of the momentum that he lost when Romanian and Bulgarian immigration failed to become the problem that he had predicted it would be. He’ll also be happy with the fact that 70 per cent of Tory voters polled said that he’d won. The Liberal Democrats will not be surprised to lose tonight. For them, the bonus is that Clegg

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Small Labour rebellion as 22 MPs vote against welfare cap

The Commons has just backed the government’s welfare cap by 520 votes to 22 against. As that figure for the Noes will include SNP MPs, this means a very small rebellion on the Labour benches – around 13. Party sources were yesterday briefing they expected around two dozen of their backbenchers to vote against. Tory deputy chief whip Greg Hands has already taken the opportunity to tweet the names of those he saw going through the No lobbies in this vote. 13 Lab rebels on Welfare Cap: Abbott, Campbell, Clark, Connarty, Corbyn, Hopkins, Jackson, McDonnell, Mudie, Riordan, Skinner, T Watson,Wood — Greg Hands (@GregHands) March 26, 2014   We’ll bring

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

PMQs: who will take credit for SSE’s price freeze?

Perhaps both David Cameron and Ed Miliband will try to take credit for SSE’s announcement that it is freezing its prices until 2016 when they tussle at PMQs. Number 10 this morning said: ‘Anything which helps consumers with their bills is to be welcomed, of course and one of the things that the company is explaining today is it is able to, a principle reason why it is able to make this decision is because of the rolling back of the green levies and green charges, which is a result of this government.’ This is true, but it’s not quite the full picture. The only reason the government decided to

Alex Massie Alex Massie

It is not surprising that the polls on Scottish independence are tightening…

There are some pollsters who believe nothing has changed since 2011. All the storm and blast, bluff and bluster about Scottish independence has had no impact at all. The settled will of the Scottish people remains settles: more power for Edinburgh but no to independence. Oddly YouGov’s Peter Kellner is one of these pollsters. Oddly because, as the chart above shows, his own polling organisation’s reports show that the race is, as long expected, tightening. There is a small but definite drift to Yes. True, at its present rate it will not be enough to prevail come September. But it is quite possible that the drift towards a Yes vote

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Nick v Nigel: what Cameron should worry about as he watches today’s fight

Even though it’s not unreasonable to predict that both Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage can emerge from tonight’s LBC debate feeling they’ve won (they’re preaching to quite different choirs), it’s still worth remembering that the one who lands a killer blow or smart put down will get the best clip on the 10 o’clock news. David Cameron says he won’t be watching the debate, implying he’s not bothered by this sideshow. Few believe this. But as he does furtively follow the exchanges while pretending to watch one of his favourite box sets, the Prime Minister will see both Farage and Clegg rubbish his renegotiation strategy. The former thinks it is

Tuesday

Jonathan Aitken

Take it from an ex-con — the outrage over prison books is misplaced

When I was doing my time in HMP Standford Hill, a strange pair of heavily perfumed Korans and Bibles were delivered to one inmate, ostensibly to help him with his ‘studies in comparative religion’. As intended, the perfume threw the sniffer dogs off the scent. But a suspicious prison officer found a significant quantity of heroin stuck between the pages of these holy books. This was an example of ‘parcelling it,’ con-speak for getting drugs into jails. So Chris Grayling, the Justice Secretary, has a point now that he is trying to restrict the supply of books into prisons. But not much of a point: such examples are real but

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Despite low-key launch, Tory ‘managed migration’ campaign should worry No. 10

Mark Field’s new Conservatives for Managed Migration group hasn’t attracted overwhelming public support from MPs. When it launched this morning, it only had two Tory MPs openly signed up, with Field telling BBC News that ‘I think we have got quite a few supporters’ but refusing to give an exact number. This might be causing No. 10 some satisfaction, although Downing Street sources are insisting that they are ‘relaxed’ about the group. It does, after all, argue that there is a ‘fundamental problem’ with the Conservatives’ net migration target. And there is considerable irritation among the Prime Minister’s advisers that MPs feel the need to set up new groups whenever

Sebastian Payne

Can the government avoid another rail fiasco before 2015?

There’s some exciting train news today, and no, it’s not related to HS2. The Transport Secretary has announced that the franchise for the East Coast Mainline has gone out to tender. Britain’s second busiest railway marked a low point for rail privatisation, when National Express bombed out of the franchise and Labour nationalised the line. Since then it has been under government control and the coalition has delayed throwing it back into the private sector several times. How have each of the operators fared on the line? Since British Rail was privatised in the early 1990s, the ECML has been run by Great North Eastern Railways (1996 to 2007), National

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Exclusive: Lib Dems go cold on candidate after ‘Jesus and Mo’ row

The Lib Dems are considering scaling back their fight for Maajid Nawaz to win the Hampstead and Kilburn seat after the row about his ‘Jesus and Mo’ tweet, I have been told. This very marginal seat, which Labour’s Glenda Jackson holds with a majority of just 42, had been one of the Lib Dems’ key target seats. But a very well-placed senior source tells me that after the ‘Jesus and Mo’ row (which Nawaz had an extremely bad-tempered debate about with Mehdi Hasan and Mo Ansar on yesterday’s Newsnight), those involved in the party’s campaigns have privately concluded that the candidate has seriously damaged his chances of winning the seat

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Will welfare cap vote be Miliband’s biggest rebellion?

So Rachel Reeves confirmed in the Commons today that Labour will back the welfare cap when it comes to a vote. Tory MPs cheered her as she announced this. There is a rebellion brewing on the Labour benches on this, which party sources are saying they remain ‘vigilant’ about. Some claim that this will be the biggest revolt of Miliband’s leadership. If it is, then it will have to surpass the 40 Labour MPs (39 and one teller) who rebelled against their party’s official position on welfare sanctions just over a year ago. The then Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Liam Byrne instructed Labour MPs to abstain on a bill

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Nick Clegg’s new running sore

Nick Clegg spent the first 20 minutes of Deputy Prime Minister’s Questions looking a little miserable. A wan smile did flicker across his lips at about 18 minutes in, but it didn’t spread to his eyes or stay very long at all. In fact, he appeared to be doing his best to fit the best ever P.G. Wodehouse description of a man looking like ‘a cat which has just been struck by a half-brick and is expecting another shortly’. Fortunately for Clegg, the other half of the brick didn’t turn up. In fact, when the time came for Harriet Harman to savage the DPM, he appeared quite happy that she’d