Uk politics

Monday

Isabel Hardman

What Tory ministers think about European reform: exclusive details

Remember that shopping list of EU reforms that Conservative party members sent ministers in the summer? Well, they’ve finally got a reply. I’ve got hold of a letter to members from Europe Minister David Lidington, which answers some of their concerns and gives us an interesting glimpse into where Conservative party thinking currently stands on European reform. The first point worth making is that while Lidington’s letter is very upbeat about the prospects of reform in Europe, the minister focuses on the opportunities for Europe-wide reform, rather than the likelihood of a new relationship with the EU for the UK. Of course, these changes can take place as part of

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Nigel Farage: Establishment and media are out to get us

After the Mail on Sunday’s awkward front page about Ukip Councillor Victoria Ayling’s apparently unsavoury views, Nigel Farage has sent an email around to party members complaining about the story and reassuring them that Ayling’s views have been distorted. Here is the text of the email: ‘I am sure many of you are aware of the attack by the Mail on Sunday on a Ukip Councillor this weekend. ‘I firstly want to reassure you that I believe this attack on Victoria Ayling to be unwarranted, and have the utmost sympathy with her. Her words on immigration it would appear were deliberately distorted and taken out of context in order to

Steerpike Steerpike

Coffee Shots: George Osborne, action Chancellor

When George Osborne paid tribute to the ‘march of the makers’ in his 2011 Budget, few thought the Chancellor was secretly plotting to join the march himself. But as part of his tour of #hardworkingpeople, Osborne hasn’t just been pointing at things, like normal politicians: he’s been making things too. Today he made a cake: But he’s also made bread: And made parts for JCB, working in this picture with a stud gun: In fact, Osborne likes making vehicles. Here he is making part of one at Cartwright vehicle manufacturers: And this time it’s attaching rivets to land speed record car Bloodhound: And here he is tootling around in a

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Iain Duncan Smith: Universal credit plan is different

Iain Duncan Smith is up before the Work and Pensions Committee this afternoon to talk about his department’s annual report. Doubtless the latest bad news on universal credit will crop up, which is a line in the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook which says there will only be a handful of claimants on universal credit by 2014/15, rather than 1.7million, and just 400,000 claiming the benefit in 2015/16 rather than 4.5million. Duncan Smith had a trial run of this afternoon’s grilling on the Today programme, where he seemed particularly grumpy, muttering about the presenters trying to find fault while insisting that the programme was still on budget. He argued that

Sunday

Isabel Hardman

Ed Balls: ‘I couldn’t give a toss’ about job speculation

Generally when someone says they ‘couldn’t give a toss’ about something, you can safely bet more than 50p and a cake that it’s the most important thing ever to them. So when Ed Balls told Sky’s Murnaghan programme today that he ‘couldn’t give a toss’ about speculation that Ed Miliband might move him, it meant a number of things. The first is, of course, that he could give a toss, but frankly it would be weird if the Shadow Chancellor didn’t care whether or not he continued in his job. Anyone answering that question honestly would have to admit that they jolly well do give a toss about whether they’re

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories have to fight on their ground, not Labour’s

At the beginning of the autumn, strategists from all three parties assumed that the theme of the season would be Labour’s poll lead narrowing as the economic recovery picked up pace. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, Labour’s lead has remained and its own poll numbers have actually ticked up. This is, largely, thanks to Ed Miliband’s reframing of the political debate about the economy, making it about living standards But the autumn statement showed that when the political conversation is focused on the broader economy, the Tories have the better of it. Thursday has weakened Ed Balls, strengthened George Osborne and begun to move the political debate off Labour’s turf

Saturday

Charles Moore

If Scotland leaves, will we be left with FUK?

In Whitehall, there is a phrase for the entity which would be left if Scotland were to vote Yes to independence next year. The acronym is rUK, which stands for ‘the rest of the United Kingdom’. This device of referring to a country’s altered state in its name has a precedent. After Macedonia broke away from Yugoslavia in 1991, it could only prevent Greece from blocking its UN entry by being admitted as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). Obviously, it would be embarrassing for the Former UK (FUK) to highlight its initials, but the nomenclature is a real problem. The reduced entity could not accurately be called Great

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Vince Cable is right, Britain is most likely to leave the EU under a Labour government

Vince Cable is surely right in his comments yesterday that the most likely scenario for Britain leaving the EU is if Ed Miliband is Prime Minister after the next election. The theory, that you hear a lot in Westminster, goes like this: Miliband is forced by public opinion into promising a referendum on EU membership, he then becomes Prime Minister and is obliged to hold the vote. But by this time, the Tory opposition is advocating a No vote; arguing that a better deal can be negotiated. The country then votes No and the rest of the EU, for once, accepts the result of the first vote. Many senior pro-European

Friday

Isabel Hardman

‘Not misleading’ = ‘we’re right!’

Ed Balls didn’t have a good day yesterday with his poor Autumn Statement performance, but he’s had a slightly better day today, with an analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies that confirms families will be ‘substantially’ worse off in 2015/16 than they were in 2009/10. Balls wants to keep talking about the cost of living: now he’s got the IFS’ analysis on his side too. Except the IFS didn’t quite back him to the hilt. The analysis of the parties’ approaches to the living standards question concluded that while the measure Balls used to calculate that working people are £1,600 a year worse off under the Coalition was ‘incomplete’, it is

Matthew Sinclair

How corporation tax cuts are helping wages

Yesterday’s autumn statement included the results of the Treasury’s study of the dynamic impacts of the cuts to Corporation Tax, which George Osborne is down from 28 per cent to 20 per cent. This study used the new HMRC Computable General Equilibrium model – as Fraser reported on Wednesday – and the results are impressive. The cuts will increase investment by 2.5-4.5% (£3.6-£6.2 billion in today’s prices). They will increase GDP by 0.6-0.8% (equivalent to £9.6-£12.2 billion). Given the share that we can expect to go to labour, that equates to an increase in wages of £405-£515 a household. As a result of higher profits, wages and consumption, we can

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Boris’s stand on equality prepares him for leadership

Boris Johnson’s Margaret Thatcher Lecture to the Centre for Policy Studies attracted attention for its remarks about IQ, but the media ignored its central thesis. The speech is against equality, eloquently so. I date the mental collapse of the Conservatives from the moment in 1995 when Labour’s newish leader, Tony Blair, jumped up in Parliament and asked the Prime Minister, John Major, whether he accepted it ‘as a responsibility of government to reduce inequality’. Mr Major’s simple answer was ‘Yes’. It shut Mr Blair up that afternoon, but it gave him the advantage ever after. If both parties say government must create equality then the one which promotes more state

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Ed Balls, champion heckler, complains about heckling

Chris Leslie popped up on the Daily Politics today to complain about the way Ed Balls was received in the Chamber when he responded to the Autumn Statement. Asked why Balls made such a horlicks of yesterday’s performance, Leslie said: ‘Well, there are plenty of Conservatives who would like to say that, in fact there were 350 or so odd Conservative MPs barracking and jeering, and I defy anybody to try and get their voice heard in that environment.’ Andrew Neil then told Leslie that he had received three separate off-the-record briefings against Ed Balls from Labour aides, some of whom were close to Ed Miliband. The Shadow Chief Secretary

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Food banks and free school meals: how ministers missed an opportunity

The Trussell Trust, which runs the biggest network of food banks in the UK, has used today’s Autumn Statement to remind politicians that over 500,000 people have sought emergency food parcels since April. There is a particular poignance to this,as today was the day the Lib Dems were having a song and dance about their free school meals policy that they’re so proud of. But while that policy might be very pleasing to any parent of a child in infant school who doesn’t have to make sandwiches any more, is it really the best use of money when departments are being asked to find an extra £1bn of savings a

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Ed Balls: OBR forecasts show cost of living will continue to haunt Tories

Ed Balls has not had a good day. He has just given his post-autumn statement briefing, at which he argued that Labour had set the agenda for this statement with Ed Miliband’s energy price freeze pledge. He’s right, but as James explained in his blog, while Labour set the terms of debate for the autumn, the Tories have just set the agenda for the winter. The autumn was about the cost of living and energy prices, now the winter will be about credibility. This of course assumes that the Conservatives follow up a good day today with an aggressive campaign over the next few weeks. That has not always been

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Autumn Statement 2013: can Labour win with Ed Balls?

After an autumn in which Ed Miliband has made the political weather, the government desperately needed a competent autumn statement that would change the terms of political trade. Today, it looks like they got that. George Osborne avoided trying to be too clever by half on the cost of living and instead stuck to the big economic picture, the government’s strongest suit. He also avoided any give-aways that would have suggested the fiscsal job was finished and that we were back to politics as usual. That the pension age will rise still further and faster was a potent reminder of how much needs to be done before Britain has an

Sebastian Payne

Spectator podcast special: The View from 22 on today’s Autumn Statement

Following George Osborne’s 2013 Autumn Statement this morning, The Spectator’s Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth discuss the Chancellor’s announcements, the reaction he received in the House of Commons, how Ed Balls responded to the statement, the winners and losers and what we can expect to see on tomorrow’s front pages. You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer every week, or you can use the embedded player below: listen to ‘Spectator podcast special: The View from 22 on today’s Autumn Statement’ on Audioboo

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Autumn statement 2013: Ed Balls’ counterattack

Ed Balls knew that his response to George Osborne’s Autumn Statement today was going to be difficult. As I blogged this morning, the Shadow Chancellor didn’t really have anywhere to go other than complain about the cost of living. This was aggravated by the fact that any Shadow Chancellor’s response to any autumn statement is a tough gig as he has no more advance sight of the figures and announcements than anyone else (perhaps George Osborne was just trying to be kind this year by briefing so much out in advance). But Balls’ strategy seems to have been the following: 1. Draft some good jokes in advance The jokes were

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Gerry Adams: still a revolting man and still trying to steal Irish history.

I know this is not exactly breaking news but Gerry Adams is a vile man. Since no-one devotes much attention to Northern Ireland these days it is easy to forget this. Easy to file Adams and his Sinn Fein comrades into a musty drawer marked Ancient History. But the past is not another country. In Dublin this week the Smithwick Tribunal’s report into alleged Garda collusion with the IRA in the murders of RUC officers Harry Breen and Robert Buchanan in 1989 was finally published. The report confirmed long-held suspicions that the IRA had a mole or, less dramatically, a simple informant inside the Garda station in Dundalk, County Louth. The

The Spectator

Full text of George Osborne’s 2013 Autumn statement

listen to ‘George Osborne’s Autumn Statement’ on Audioboo Mr Speaker, Britain’s economic plan is working. But the job is not done. We need to secure the economy for the long term. And the biggest risk to that comes from those who would abandon the plan. We seek a responsible recovery. One where we don’t squander the gains we’ve made, but go on taking the difficult decisions. One where we don’t repeat the mistakes of the past, but this time spot the debt bubbles before they threaten financial stability. A responsible recovery, where we don’t pretend we can make this nation better off by writing cheques to ourselves, and instead make