Uk politics

Sunday

Sebastian Payne

The Tories are facing a serious Ukip problem

Is Ukip damaging the Tories in crucial marginal constituencies? As I wrote earlier this week, the next election is looking to be close, but there has been much speculation as to what extent Ukip will split the Tory vote. Could this unwittingly lead to a Labour victory? Lord Ashcroft has polled 40 of the most marginal Conservative seats (32 Labour targets and 8 Lib Dem) for the third time since the last election to try and answer that question. From today’s snapshot, the answer is that Ukip pose a great electoral threat to the Tories. In the Conservative/Labour marginals, their vote share has jumped from 3 to 11 per cent

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Lib Dem conference: Danny Alexander hints at key role for Trident in coalition negotiations

Danny Alexander is respected by his colleagues across the coalition (except Vince Cable – James reveals today that the pair are barely speaking) for a number of things, from his bean counting ability to his aptitude for giving a lengthy interview or fringe speech without moving a story on an inch. He tried to do the latter today on the Trident alternatives review at a Demos event, but was foiled by his panel partner, Baroness Falkner of Margravine, chair of the party’s backbench international affairs committee. She compared the party’s policy to flood insurance that ‘only applies in a drought’, saying: ‘How does a posture of sending out boats unarmed

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Lib Dem conference: Ed Davey’s full-throttle attack on Owen Paterson (and some terrible jokes)

Ed Davey has a good story to tell his party about fighting the Tories to get a Lib Dem vision for energy policy into government. His speech today was supposed to underline that, and to a certain extent it achieved this, using the word ‘fight’ 15 times, and ‘battle’ four times. It was just rather undermined by the Energy Secretary’s decision to whack a load of jokes into his speech without much heed to whether they were funny, or whether he could deliver them in a manner that highlighted to graduates that they were funny. The worst joke was about shale gas. ‘I’ve been cautious on shale,’ said Davey. ‘Avoiding

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Ashdown: We’re ‘a left wing party’ but we’ll do a deal with whoever the voters tell us to

A rather irritable Paddy Ashdown has just told Andrew Neil that the Lib Democrats are ‘a left-wing party’ but that their next coalition would be determined by the voters. Ashdown, whose chairing the Lib Dem election campaign, claimed that it simply wasn’t accurate to say that Lib Dems had a preference for who they’d like as their coalition partner. This is, to put it mildly, a dubious statement and Ashdown did feel the need to concede that senior Lib Dems did have ‘private likes and dislikes’. But he claimed that this wouldn’t influence their decision about who to go into government with. Ashdown’s aggressive approach to this question is designed

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Nick Clegg: Labour fail on finance, Tories fail on fairness

Who would the Lib Dems prefer to go into coalition with? We know what the party’s activists think, thanks to an Independent on Sunday poll that found them in favour of shacking up with Labour, and thanks to the Observer, we know what former party leader Lord Ashdown thinks (although he seems a little aerated about the write-up of his interview). But this morning on the Marr Show, Nick Clegg was asked who he would choose between in a photo finish in the 2015 general election. The Lib Dem leader said: ‘It is my genuine belief that if you go back to the bad old days, not of coalition and

Saturday

The Spectator

Nick Clegg’s speech to the Liberal Democrat conference rally

Welcome to Glasgow. This year’s conference sees us gather in a city that has always been important to the Liberal Democrats, a city once  represented by Roy Jenkins, that gave us Ming Campbell and where nearby in 2005 Jo Swinson won a famous victory to take her seat from Labour and become an MP at just 25. Before anything I want to pay tribute to our team of Scottish MPs who lead the way in Parliament in arguing for a United Kingdom that is strong, secure and together. All under the direction of our fantastic Chief Whip and rally compere. Over the course of the next year, our party will

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Tim Farron tells Coffee House: I might vote against leadership on 50p tax

One of the many confrontations between the Liberal Democrat leadership and party activists this week in Glasgow is over tax. When conference debates its tax policy paper, ‘Fairer Taxes’, on Monday, it will vote on a motion that includes a reintroduction of the 50p rate of tax, should an independent review conclude that the cost of introducing it won’t exceed the amount it raises. It is this vote that the leadership expects to lose. But I’ve been speaking to Tim Farron, the party’s president, who tells me that he is considering supporting the motion on 50p against the leadership’s wishes. He says: ‘I am sympathetic to the arguments in favour

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Nick Clegg tells the Lib Dems, we’re the party of jobs

The Lib Dem conference rally was never going to be the same without Sarah Teather and her comedy routine. With Teather persona non grata following her decision to step down, it was duly a much tamer affair. The only risqué jokes were about Lembit Opik being bitten in the nether regions by a sausage dog. But seeing as Lembit has infuriated party loyalists by again calling for Clegg to go, they got a laugh from the leadership. The message of the conference rally was that the Liberal Democrats are the party of jobs. Nick Clegg claimed that the Tories weren’t the party of jobs, but the party of fire at

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Lib Dem conference 2013: The key rows to watch

Nick Clegg is, on balance, starting his party’s conference in a reasonably strong position. There has been an amusing bitch fight today between party grandees, with Paddy Ashdown saying that ‘Matthew [Oakeshott]’s self-appointed position as a sort of vicar on earth for Vince does neither of them any good’, but largely Clegg can expect to at least arrive in Glasgow without any suggestions that this is a crucial conference for him. There will, however, be some bumps in the road over the next couple of days. The Lib Dem leader isn’t facing a leadership challenge, but he still has challenges to his authority as leader to weather: and they come

Sebastian Payne

Not even Conservative MPs want to attend their own party conference

Party conference season kicks off this weekend, but who is actually going? A ComRes poll out today suggests 38 per cent of Conservative backbenchers will be unlikely to attend their party’s annual gathering in Manchester. 14 per cent of Labour MPs have also stated they won’t be attending but thankfully for the Lib Dems, everyone polled said they would be probably or definitely be going: Why is this a particular problem for the Tories? In this week’s Spectator cover feature, Ross Clark examines the plight of all parties and their conferences. He argues the Conservative party is now more akin to a rural bus service: ‘The website ConservativeHome (which now

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Oakeshott attack on Nick Clegg highlights how safe the Lib Dem leader is

The Lib Dems have had a lot to get used to since coming into government: not least the growth of their conference from something that members could stroll in and out of with their knitting needles, and that only the most junior hacks were sent to. But only three years into holding conferences as a party of government, they’re starting to notice a pattern. Firstly, there will be a bit of rabble-rousing from the party’s president Tim Farron, who will drop some flirtatious hints about Labour, his heart beating on the left and how the Tories are a bit naughty. Then Vince Cable will say something a bit melancholy. Then

Thursday

Sebastian Payne

Ed Miliband: weak, weird and out of his depth

The next election is going to be close. Very close, according to new polling from YouGov. When asked which government they would prefer after the next election, 41 per cent said a Conservative government led by David Cameron compared to 40 per cent for a Labour government led Ed Miliband. This does not mean Miliband is gaining momentum. In July, Labour had a 13 point lead in YouGov polls. Today, it has more than halved to just six points. The Times puts this down (£) to the Labour leader himself. The polling suggests he’s seen as weak, out of his depth and weird. When asked for three words to describe

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

David Cameron: I will scold Barroso for lecturing my party

José Manuel Barroso’s comments about euroscepticism might have revealed something rather warped about the Eurocrat mindset, but it has also provided quite an opportunity for David Cameron to show his party where his own loyalties lie. This afternoon the Prime Minister told Iain Dale’s LBC show that he planned to have a ‘pretty robust’ exchange with with the President of the European Commission. He said: ‘You’ve got to take the rough with the smooth in this job, and I sometimes tell other people what to do and sometimes people give you a bit of advice as well. I mean, the Barroso thing did annoy me, because frankly, you know, his

Frank Field

Time’s up for today’s welfare state

Welfare as we know it is doomed to defeat. It looks like going down to defeat from three major challenges, and each challenge comes from the sea change that is now so marked in public opinion. First, welfare has moved from one based on the duty to contribute before the right to help was conceded. Increasingly benefits are provided only after a test of income. Voters do not approve of this significant change. The next challenge comes from an increasing reluctance by voters to pay an ever growing share of their income in taxes, of which the largest part goes to a form of welfare with which they strongly disagree

Steerpike Steerpike

Labour get attacks in early on Toby Young

Toby Young has rattled some Labour cages by publicly mooting a bid for the Tory nomination for Hammersmith. ‘Z List Toryboy celebrity Toby Young wants to be an MP’ spins a Labour adviser Imran Ahmed. Then came the hammer blow: ‘Think he’s gotten House of Commons mixed up with Big Brother house.’ Oh, that one will hurt. Should have saved it for the leaflets! So who is Ahmed? Well he last hit the headlines after he was accused of ghost-writing tweets for his old boss Andy Slaughter – the Labour MP for Hammersmith. Could he be speaking with Slaughter’s voice again?

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why Nick Clegg is heading to Glasgow in good spirits

Look at the polls and you’d think that Nick Clegg’s circle would be down in the dumps. But, as I say in the magazine this week, they actually head to Glasgow in good spirits. Why, because Clegg’s position as party leader is secure and another hung parliament remains the most likely result of the next election. If in May 2010, you’d said that Clegg would back a strike on a Middle Eastern country without a UN mandate and then lost a House of Commons vote on the issue with 24 of his 57 MPs not backing him on it, we’d have assumed that he’d have been toast. But Clegg’s position

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Two weeks after his Syria defeat, David Cameron looks less wounded than many thought

It’s two weeks since David Cameron looked rather sick in the House of Commons and Labour MPs jeered ‘resign’ following his defeat on Syria. On that night, all sorts of wild predictions were flying around about what this meant for the Prime Minister. But even some of the more sanguine commentary looked rather misplaced this week when Cameron was able to stand up at PMQs and produce a range of punchy jokes about how weak Ed Miliband was. Could a Prime Minister who had just lost a vote on a matter of war really call the leader of the opposition weak? Cameron’s wounds have healed a little quicker than many

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Yes, Royal Mail should be privatised.

In this morning’s post: enticing offers from McDonald’s, Domino’s pizza, Sainsbury’s a local clothes shop and a children’s charity. Arriving later today: a couriered parcel from Amazon.  That’s often the reality of the modern British postal service. The Royal Mail delivers things you don’t want; private companies deliver the things you do. Which is one reason why all the arguments citing the fact that Margaret Thatcher – sorry, even Margaret Thatcher – thought privatising the Royal Mail a step too far are cute but utterly irrelevant. It’s a different world now. One in which if things are to stay the same they must change. And so, on balance, the partial privatisation of

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Andrew Mitchell is still waiting for justice

A week ago next Thursday marks the first anniversary of the Curious Incident of the Chief Whip in the Night-time. The chief whip, Andrew Mitchell, did nothing — or very little — in the night-time. That was the curious incident. There is not the slightest evidence that he called the policemen on the gates of Downing Street ‘plebs’; and this has now been admitted. It is clear, with plenty of evidence on Channel 4 News, that some police, with some accomplices, spread a story against Mr Mitchell, possibly to protect themselves against an expected complaint from him after they refused to let him through the gates on his bicycle. As

Sebastian Payne

The View from 22: the end of political parties, RBS and Lib Dem conference preview

Have political parties had their day? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Ross Clark and Fraser Nelson debate whether party conferences are now pointless, filled with lobbyists not members, and whether parties no longer have a purpose. Are we entering a post-party politics? What, if anything, can be done to fix the relationship between Britain’s interest in politics and our parties? The Telegraph’s Iain Martin also discusses the breakup of RBS with the publication of his new book Making It Happen this week. What did RBS fail in such a spectacular fashion? How strong was the Scottish connection to the financial crash? Was Fred the Shred entirely responsible? What