Uk politics

Thursday

James Forsyth

Leveson talks failure is bad omen for 2015 coalition negotiations

David Cameron’s decision to go it alone and call a vote on a press Royal Charter on Monday is a reminder both of how fundamental the differences between the coalition partners are on press regulation and that the next election is less than 25 months away. Cameron’s statement that if he loses next week and statutory regulation passes, then a majority Conservative government would repeal it shows that he’s prepared to make this an election issue. The coalition won’t fall over Monday’s vote. But it will be a moment of high parliamentary drama. I would venture, though, that if Labour and the Liberal Democrats can’t agree a common position on

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

David Cameron brings Leveson debate to a head over bill hijack fears

Those involved in the Leveson talks from the Labour and Lib Dem side say they had no idea the Prime Minister was going to pull the plug on the cross-party discussions this morning until a conference call shortly before David Cameron’s hastily-arranged press conference. An angry Lib Dem source tells me: ‘It was completely out of the blue to be honest. Over the last few days the talks have been making gal progress and we were moving towards a deal. We thought a solution was possible. There were other things we war pushing for, such as some form of statutory underpinning to protect the Royal Charter from future political interference.

Sebastian Payne

Breaking: Leveson cross-party talks collapse

BBC News is reporting the cross-party talks on implementing the Leveson press regulation proposals have broken down. Apparently the divisions between the parties are just ‘too great’ to bridge. Proposals will be published on Monday, followed by a Commons vote. The Prime Minister is holding a press conference in 15 minutes at No.10 — we’ll have more details shortly. More to follow…

Wednesday

Ryan Bourne

No, it is not a good idea for the Tories to raise the minimum wage

There’s so much to disagree with in Rupert Myers’ piece arguing that the Tories should raise the minimum wage that it’s difficult to know where to begin. Raising the minimum wage will be bad for the most vulnerable in the workforce and will lead to less employment. The question of whether it would win support for the Conservative party is another matter. This is really basic economics. Raising the price of labour by dictat will reduce the demand for it, other things given. Or as Paul Krugman put it back in 1998:  ‘The higher wage reduces the quantity of labor demanded, and hence leads to unemployment.’  It might not necessarily

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Exclusive: Nick Boles to get roasting from No 10 over ‘rotten campaign’ comments

Nick Boles is getting a roasting in Number 10 tonight for his comments in The Times about the Eastleigh by-election, I understand. There was considerable disquiet about the interview, in which the Planning Minister said his party had run a ‘truly rotten campaign’ and failed to convey the modernisation message. “Where was the hope? It was as if modernisation had never happened. We screwed it up. We didn’t even screw up in a new way. We screwed it up in an old way that we have been doing for a decade. It’s so frustrating.” This was apparently Boles doing his own thing rather than a decision from the top that someone needed

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Exclusive: Number 10’s plan to break the spending review log-jam

George Osborne yesterday set the date for completion of the 2015-16 spending review as 26 June. But it is hard to see how an agreement between the Treasury and the un-protected spending departments will be reached in the next 105 days. The Tory branch of the National Union of Ministers want the welfare settlement reopened before their budgets are cut further. For their part, the Liberal Democrats remain resolutely opposed to more welfare reductions. But I understand that the departing head of the Number 10 policy unit Paul Kirby has drawn up an alternative spending review plan which would break this log-jam. As I say in tomorrow’s Spectator, rather than simply

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

PMQs sketch: Nothing changes, yet everything is different

There comes a moment in a PM’s journey when he crests the ridge and starts on the downhill leg. David Cameron made that unhappy transition today. PMQs began with a gag from a Labour backbencher. Tom Blenkinsop: ‘The prime minister may believe there’s no alternative to the double dip. But some in the cabinet believe there is an alternative. To him!’ Cameron replied by listing his usual trinity of attainments. Lower deficit, more jobs, interest rates at record lows. Then Ed Miliband had a go. Instead of raising an issue, he went for Cameron’s reputation. ‘Given the government’s U-turn on alcohol,’ he said, ‘is there anything the prime minister could

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

PMQs: David Cameron flails as Tory backbench stays glum

Today’s Prime Minister’s Questions was not a good one for David Cameron, but it could have been a great deal worse. With a U-turn on minimum pricing on the cards and open dissent in the Cabinet and on the backbenches, the PM arrived knowing he’d have his back up against the wall, even though Ed Miliband has struggled to make effective attacks on big issues in the last few weeks. The Labour leader had some good jokes, too. His opening line – ‘in the light of his U-turn on alcohol pricing, can the PM tell us, is there anything he could organise in a brewery?’ – was particularly good, and

Alex Massie Alex Massie

David Cameron won’t debate Alex Salmond because televised debates are for losers.

The standard assumption about political debates is that the campaign with most to gain in all in favour of them while the candidate presumed to be the front-runner wants nothing to do with them. Franklin Roosevelt refused to debate Wendell Wilkie in 1940, LBJ refused to debate Barry Goldwater in 1964 and, four years later, Richard Nixon (perhaps recalling his experience in 1960) declined to debate Hubert Humphrey. Indeed, you can argue that the modern American practice of Presidential debates might not exist at all but for the weakness of the position in which Gerald Ford found himself in 1976. As matters stand, I suspect there will be some reluctance

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Expected U-turn on minimum alcohol pricing is victory for May and relief for Osborne

The government’s expected U-turn on a minimum price for alcohol avoids a Cabinet revolt which would have included Home Secretary Theresa May. It’s good timing for May as she enjoys the spotlight on her apparent jostling for a future leadership bid as it shows that she enjoys power at the top of the Tory machine, and will again make her a rallying figure for libertarian Conservatives. But the U-turn is also, in the long-term, good for the Chancellor, too. George Osborne is under pressure to deliver a cost of living budget, and raising the minimum unit price would do the opposite, even for squeezed shoppers who drink responsibly. The last

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Tory loyalists strike back

Lynton Crosby spoke to Tory MPs this evening about the imporance of party discipline. With the Chief Whip in the chair, meetings of the Tory parliamentary party are normally fairly loyalist events. Tonight’s was no exception and with David Cameron and Lynton Crosby in attendance there was an even greater incentive to good behaviour. I’m told that James Morris, who sits for a West Midlands marginal, earned cheers when he implored colleagues to remember that when they sound off, they hurt those like him who are trying to cling on to their majorities. Kris Hopkins, the no nonsense leader of the 301 Group, complained about ‘self indulgent buffoons’ who keep

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Tory campaign on foreign criminals attracts huge support

Dominic Raab’s proposal to stop jailed foreign criminals avoiding deportation on the grounds of a right to family life turns out to be very popular indeed among MPs. It’s got 104 supporters currently, including 91 Conservative MPs, and will be debated as an amendment to the Crime and Courts Bill tomorrow when the legislation reaches its report stage in the House of Commons. The amendment would mean that foreign criminals can only avoid deportation if they risk being killed or tortured on their return, and is intended as a stop-gap ahead of any Tory plans to repeal the Human Rights Act or exit the European Convention on Human Rights. It

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The Tory leadership needs to make MPs feel valued, not stop them tweeting

Lynton Crosby is holding his election strategy meeting (first revealed on Coffee House) with Tory MPs at 5.30 this afternoon. One of the things he’ll bring up, as reported by Benedict Brogan this morning, is that MPs need to be a little less unruly on Twitter. Obviously that’s not their biggest worry, as there’s also the problem of MPs coalescing around different future leadership contenders, who are all thinking ahead to what will happen after the 2015 leadership election. I understand from friends of Adam Afriyie that their campaign has managed to stop seven or eight letters asking for a leadership contest to oust David Cameron going to 1922 Committee

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

How the Coalition neutered Ed Balls’ mansion tax vote

The mansion tax – sorry, ‘tax fairness’ – debate is still rumbling on in the Commons, and Labour are trying to score as many political points as possible on the matter, as expected. Actually, the party’s idea to table the Opposition Day vote on this policy was a good piece of political game-playing when they announced it. But equally impressive has been the Coalition’s response to it. The Liberal Democrats were extremely nervous about talking about how they would vote before the Eastleigh by-election. One aide told me at the time: ‘We can’t have Labour putting about on leaflets that we are opposing our own policy: we don’t want a

Jonathan Jones

Forget 50p — scrap the 60p tax rate

Imagine if a Chancellor stood up and announced that those earning up to £100,000 would pay a 40p tax rate, those earning £100,000 to £112,950 will pay a 60p rate, and those earning above £112,950 will pay the 40p rate, and then the top earners will pay a 50p rate. That’d be crazy, right? But that’s exactly what Alistair Darling announced in his 2009 Budget. So how did he get away with it? By delivering his announcement in code. Instead of talking about marginal tax rates, he described the move as withdrawing the personal allowance for those with incomes over £100,000. The language may be different — and may sound

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

MPs get last chance to push Osborne on Budget

It’s the last Treasury questions before the Budget today, and MPs will have a final chance to push the Chancellor on what it is that they want from the Budget. There are those who are instinctively loyal to the Tory leadership and want a Budget that comes and goes without fireworks or failures. ‘Just steady as she goes, please,’ one loyalist says. Within that group are MPs who are desperate for a cost of living Budget. Then there are those MPs who are not loyal, and who, even if they don’t admit it, would quite like a messy Budget that shows George Osborne up. A wider group of backbenchers includes

Monday

The Spectator

Breaking: Chris Huhne sentenced to 8 months

Former Lib Dem Energy Secretary Chris Huhne has been sentenced to eight months in jail, a judge has announced at Southwark Crown Court in the last few minutes. His ex-wife Vicky Pryce was also sentenced for eight months. It’s worth reading the interview that Chris Huhne gave to the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour before his sentencing at Southwark Crown Court this afternoon. He said: ‘I changed my plea for two reasons. I did not want to go to court and lie. I did not want to perjure myself further. In the past, people have got themselves into further trouble when they have tried to do that. That is the lesson people should learn.

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Tory pressure for EU referendum bill grows

David Cameron and Lynton Crosby are holding a meeting with Conservative MPs this week to discuss 2015 strategy, I understand. The party held a similar meeting with Andrew Cooper in January. One of the major topics that is likely to come up from the floor is whether the party should be trying to get legislation on an EU referendum into parliament at some point. There is of course already an opportunity for the party to do this, as there is a backbench bill already before parliament proposing just that. It’s from John Baron, who was the first Tory to break ranks and criticise David Cameron’s EU referendum pledge, writing on

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Some cheer for Tory election planners: Clegg determined to oppose EU referendum

The last few weeks have, to put it mildly, not been encouraging for those working on the Tories’ 2015 campaign. But today brings news to gladden their hearts. For the FT’s Kiran Stacey reports that Nick Clegg is so opposed to David Cameron’s plan for renegotiation followed by a referendum that he’s considering making it a red line for any future coalition negotiation. This is good news for Tory campaigners as it indicates that the Liberal Democrats will go into the next election opposed to giving the people a say on Europe. Now, to most voters Europe is not the deciding issue when they cast their ballot. But the Liberal

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Liam Fox shows David Cameron how to lead the Tories to a historic defeat

I think it is fair to say that Dr Liam Fox has never been one of David Cameron’s chief chums. The former Defence Secretary has, as Paul Goodman notes, been closer to George Osborne. Be that as it may, his speech today is a fine reminder of Dr Fox’s political limitations. This is the kind of stuff – and the kind of man, frankly – that helps explain why the Conservative party has not won a general election majority since 1992. Think on that and think on how much Britain has changed these past 21 years and how little the Tory party has. Dr Fox ignored all this, delivering a