Uk politics

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Government expects to lose EU budget vote

While the rebel whips are still rounding up Tory MPs to vote against the government on the EU budget motion, which starts in the Commons shortly, a senior government source tells me that they now expect to lose the vote. David Cameron’s line at Prime Minister’s Questions that ‘at best we would like it cut, at worst frozen, and I’m quite prepared to use the veto if we don’t get a deal that’s good for Britain’ may not have taken the sting out of the rebellion itself, but it might be easier for the government to now argue that losing a vote on an amendment which calls for a cut is

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

PMQs sketch: Ed Miliband poses as the king of the jungle

Ed Miliband had fun with his dressing-up box today. At PMQs he tried on all kinds of disguises in the hope of scaring the government. First Europe and the EU budget negotiations. Miliband’s approach here is full of cunning and dishonesty. He called for ‘real terms reduction’ even though he knows full well that a freeze is the best the government can hope for. But by suggesting an impossible tactic he can claim that David Cameron has missed a trick. ‘Rank opportunism,’ declared the PM, ‘and the country will see through it.’ He reminded us of Labour’s record at the negotiating table seven years ago. Back then Ed Milband and

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Tensions grow over government green policy

While the major tensions at today’s Prime Minister’s Questions were around the Tory party and Europe, another split within the government – this time between the two coalition parties – was visible too. Ed Miliband used his second set of questions to attack the Prime Minister on the Heseltine review, which he linked to John Hayes’ comments about wind farms to the Mail and the Telegraph. Hayes had told journalists that ‘enough is enough’ on wind farms, adding that ‘I can’t single-handedly build a new Jerusalem but I can protect our green and pleasant land’. Miliband said: ‘He says there’s no strategy for jobs and growth, business has no confidence

James Forsyth James Forsyth

David Cameron reassures MPs that he’d prefer a cut in EU budget

The Prime Minister needed to reassure his own side at PMQs today on the EU budget and give his whips something to work with. He largely did that, saying almost immediately that his position was that at best, he’d like it cut and at worst, frozen. That Cameron has said he’d like it cut will give those of his backbenchers who stick with him tonight some cover. They’ll be able to say that they’re supporting the government which already wants a cut. Ed Miliband’s decision to lead on the issue and try and use it to paint Cameron as ‘weak’ has also made the issue more partisan. I suspect that

Cheryl Gillan

The government could repeat its West Coast Mainline mistake with HS2

This Monday Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin faced the House of Commons to make a second statement on the fiasco surrounding the West Coast Mainline rail franchise.  Reporting on the initial findings of an inquiry into what went wrong, the Transport Secretary said the conclusions made ‘uncomfortable reading’ and showed, amongst other failings,  a lack of transparency in the process, inconsistencies in the treatment of bidders and technical flaws in the modelling. While these revelations raise huge concerns about the internal working at the Department for Transport, I was glad to see the Transport Secretary approach his department’s shortcomings with openness and transparency; I commended his approach during the statement.  However,

James Forsyth James Forsyth

PMQs: David Cameron needs to show he has control of EU vote

At PMQs today, David Cameron will need to go some distance to meet his backbenchers and head off a government defeat tonight on the EU budget. He’ll need to say that he personally would like to see the EU Budget reduced and that if other countries are prepared to agree to that, he’d be delighted. But that the one thing he’ll guarantee is that he’ll veto any real terms increase. He’ll also need to take the fight to Labour on the matter, pointing out how Blair gave up a chunk of the rebate for the vaguest of promises on CAP reform. Part of the reason that Europe votes keep causing

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Change at Number 10

Gabby Bertin is one of David Cameron’s long-marchers; she has been with him since he won the leadership in 2005. Bertin has acted as his political spokeswoman for the last seven years, pushing the Cameron message and dealing calmly with the inevitable crises and mishaps. Few people know what Cameron thinks as well as Bertin does and are as prepared as her to tell him when he is going wrong. Cameron, for his part, values Bertin’s ability to, in his words, ‘see round corners.’ But in a fortnight’s time, she goes off on six months maternity leave. I understand that Susie Squire, currently running the press operation at CCHQ, will

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Lord Heseltine blasts government’s growth strategy

Appointing Lord Heseltine to lead a review of the government’s growth plan was a risky decision as not only was he always going to say exactly what he thought, but he was also going to say it from his own particular interventionist stance. It was originally a Steve Hilton idea, and the PM’s guru must be enjoying reading what Heseltine has to say from the comfortable distance of a sabbatical in California. The report, No Stone Unturned in Pursuit of Growth, is as honest as ministers might have expected, pointing out that business believe that ‘the UK does not have a strategy for growth and wealth creation’, criticising an ‘inertia’

Tuesday

Christopher Howarth

Why David Cameron can threaten to veto the EU budget

When in 1996 the US Congress threw out Bill Clinton’s Federal budget they precipitated a partial shutdown of the US Government. However, anyone looking at the growing prospect of a UK EU budget veto and cheerfully imagining Eurocrats being shut out of their offices on 31 December 2013 will be disappointed. Because when it comes to EU budgets, a veto is not quite a veto – the EU will continue one way or another to claim its dues. Nethertheless, a UK veto is not meaningless. Not least because, as we have set out here, the scenarios that could play out after a UK veto may not be that much worse for

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

EU budget: MPs warned revolt ‘could undermine coalition’

It was inevitable that the new team of whips was going to be rather unsettled by tomorrow’s vote on the EU budget: it’s the first challenge the team has had to face. But what is surprising is quite how serious their palpitations are. I understand from a number of Conservative MPs that one of the key threats isn’t you-won’t-get-a-promotion-in-this-government, or we’ll-reveal-the-truth-about-your-mistress, but that a big rebellion tomorrow will threaten the very stability of the coalition government. When I was first told this, I found it slightly incredible: this is a non-binding vote where the popular amendment calls for the Prime Minister to go further than he has promised in negotiations,

Camilla Swift Camilla Swift

‘Meeting? What meeting? I wasn’t there!’ Vince Cable forgets key growth committee

Business Secretary Vince Cable bewildered a select committee this morning by telling members that a new sub-committee, the Growth Implementation Committee, was yet to meet, before later backtracking and announcing that it had in fact met twice. When asked by Labour MP Anne McKechin why the much-lauded new sub-committee, which was launched in September, had not yet had a meeting, Cable replied: ‘I can’t tell you why that committee has not been convened yet’ but that he would endeavour to find out. Later in the meeting however, Cable appeared to retract his previous statement, saying that he wanted to ‘correct the record’, as he earlier ‘couldn’t recall meetings of the committee.

Sebastian Payne

The View from 22 – Battle of the Chancellors special

The Spectator hosted a packed-out debate last night on the motion — ‘George Osborne isn’t working: we need a Plan B’ — and you can now hear the outcome for yourself. As Isabel reported earlier, it was an evening of intense discussion and disagreement, so we have recorded the entire evening for you to listen at your leisure. The event lasted nearly two hours, so here are the timings for the individual speakers: 03:12 – Alistair Darling (for) 10:25 – Jesse Norman (against) 19:04 – Matthew Oakeshott (for) 27:42 – Fraser Nelson (against) 36:10 – David Blanchflower (for) 47:13 – Norman Lamont (against) 54:30 – Question and answers with Andrew Neil 1:39:08 – Final

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Tory whips in a flap over EU budget rebellion deploy Rees-Mogg

At this morning’s Cabinet meeting, ministers discussed tomorrow’s debate on the EU budget, which is shaping up to be a big row. MPs I have spoken to who have either signed or are considering putting their names to the amendment calling for a real-terms cut in the budget have found their whips to be in quite a flap about the issue. Even though it might be convenient for the Prime Minister to use a vote in parliament calling for a cut as a weapon at the budget summit itself, the party leadership is clearly sufficiently nervous to have pushed for a rival amendment from Jacob Rees-Mogg and Peter Bone. The

Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

Battle of the Chancellors: hope v fear

At the Spectator debate on the economic consequences of Mr Osborne last night, Andrew Neil repeated JK Galbraith’s line that ‘economic forecasters exist to make astrologers look good.’ The impressive Conservative MP Jesse Norman countered with ‘an economist is a man who knows 17 ways to make love to women – but no women’. Lord Oakeshott, I think, joined the mockery by pointing out that every forecast from the Office of Budget Responsibility had been wrong. Its consistent incompetence, its steady state of stupidity, its unerring unreliability, made it a surprisingly useful institution, however. Whatever it predicted you could be sure the opposite would occur. How we laughed. But political

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Battle of the Chancellors: We don’t need a Plan B

Nearly a third of the audience at last night’s Spectator Battle of the Chancellors debate arrived not knowing whether George Osborne’s plan was working or whether a plan B was in order. It was all to play for, and the six speakers attacked the task with quite some gusto. Former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling kicked off the debate by looking back to his own time in the Treasury, telling the audience that this was a crisis of the banking system by using an alarming anecdote of a conversation with a senior banker in the midst of the 2008 crisis. ‘He said, “I just want to give you some confidence, some

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Tony Blair’s ‘Grand Bargain’ for Europe: elect a President

Tony Blair gave a speech today in which he proposed a ‘Grand Bargain’ to revive the European Union. One of the proposals in this grand bargain is – and Blair is clearly speaking entirely without self-interest – that there be an elected president of the European Commission or European Council. The former Prime Minister told the Council for the Future of Europe in Berlin: ‘Let me make a few quick reflections. A Europe-wide election for the Presidency of the Commission or Council is the most direct way to involve the public. An election for a big post held by one person – this people can understand. The problem with the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why David Cameron isn’t proposing a cut in the EU budget

Cutting the EU budget is a very good idea. Much of it is spent inefficiently and its priorities are all wrong, 40 percent of it goes on agriculture. Given that a cut would also be popular with voters, why doesn’t David Cameron propose one? The reason is that there’s virtually no chance of getting agreement to it. If there’s no agreement, the EU will move to annual budgets decided by qualified majority voting—stripping Britain of its veto. But Labour’s tactical positioning in calling for an EU budget cut has been, as Isabel said earlier, extremely clever. It has left Cameron defending a complicated position which puts him on the wrong

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The test of Ed Miliband’s One Nation brand

Labour has been pushing its One Nation branding campaign with quite some gusto in the past few days. Stephen Twigg announced at the weekend that ‘One Nation Childcare’ could include co-operative nurseries, and today Ed Miliband has given a speech on what One Nation means for mental health services, with the party launching a mental health taskforce. As well as trying to drop in as many mentions of the phrase as he could into his speech to the Royal College of Psychiatrists, Miliband continued to make direct links with One Nation’s founder, Disraeli. He said: ‘But just as Disraeli was right back in the nineteenth century that we could not

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

What today’s Trident announcement is really about

When Nick Harvey was sacked in September’s reshuffle, leaving the Ministry of Defence without a Liberal Democrat minister, anti-nuclear campaigners and the SNP claimed the move put the future of the review into alternatives to the current Trident nuclear deterrent in doubt. To underline the review’s security, the party announced at the start of its autumn conference two weeks later that Danny Alexander would lead it instead. But though the review may be continuing, it appears rather insecure in one crucial respect, which is whether anyone will actually pay it the blindest bit of attention. Today Philip Hammond announced a further £350 million of funding for the design of a

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Trident: political football, folly, or matter of principle? – Spectator Blogs

Philip Hammond is one of those ministers who seems to be held in greater esteem by those inside the Westminster hamlet than those of us who live beyond its boundaries. Westminster’s natives may, of course, be right, but it is striking how often the Secretary of State for Defence prefers to cast his arguments in terms of economics rather than, well, defence. He’s at it again today. Mr Hammond is popping in to the nuclear submarine base at Faslane where he will “announce” that the government is splashing another £350m on the next phase of the mission to replace Britain’s Trident nuclear missiles. For reasons best known to himself, the