Uk politics

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Johnson: the Tories aren’t the “nasty party” when it comes to immigration

There are plenty of noteworthy snippets in Mehdi Hasan and James Macintyre’s interview with Alan Johnson today, but it’s this passage which jumped out at me: “Johnson even chooses to defend the Tories on immigration, saying they represent a ‘mainstream, centre-right’ party engaging in a ‘decent, centre-ground debate on immigration’. This, despite the Tories having stuck to the 2005 pledge, under Michael Howard, for an immigration ‘cap’, which – along with campaign posters asking ‘Are you thinking what we’re thinking?’ – led to accusations of ‘dog-whistle’ politics.” It’s a truism that in order to have a sensible debate, you’ve got to be willing to actually have a debate – so

Peter Hoskin

Byrne draws a dividing line over decentralisation

Good work by the Guardian, who have got their hands on leaked sections of a government report into downscaling Whitehall.  At first glance, it all looks kinda promising.  There are provisions to reduce the cost of senior civil servants, to cut the numbers of quangos, and to make it more difficult to establish new quangos.  Surely, these are measures which will be necessary to fix our broken public finances. But it’s the headline idea which could give you cause for concern: namely, that the government “wants a review” into relocating around 200,000 civil servants and other public sector workers away from London and the South-East.  It’s meant to strengthen localism

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

The man who hopes to unseat Harman

The papers have been stuffed with articles recently about the current crop of Tory party candidates – but few have been as readable, or as encouraging, as Rachel Williams’ profile of Andy Stranack in today’s Guardian.  Stranack is the Tory PPC in Camberwell and Peckham – Harriet Harman’s seat – and his background is really quite remarkable: “In 2001, Stranack ignored the concerns of his family (‘They thought I was mad’), gave up his £30,000 a year council policy officer job in Croydon, south London, sold his maisonette, and moved to the borough’s deprived Monks Hill estate. He stayed there, living on the poverty line and doing church-backed community work,

Mark Bathgate

Saving the world | 25 November 2009

Today’s revised GDP data confirms that the UK remained alone of the world’s major economies in recession in the third quarter of this year*. The fact that the UK remains mired in recession long after most economies have recovered makes clear how uniquely badly positioned the UK economy was to handle a downturn.  While some investment banks continue to argue that this performance reflects the inability of the Office of National Statistics to calculate the data correctly, there is good reason to believe that this huge underperformance is grounded in reality. Economic history teaches that bank crises are amongst the worst things that can ever hit an economy. The collapse

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

A game of chess

Fascinating details dominated PMQs today. Instead of the usual custard pie-fight this was a game of chess. Things began with talk of downpours and sandbags. Both leaders were concerned that the sodden folk of Cumbria are receiving enough hot soup and blankets. The PM reminded us that he’d recently popped up there to squelch around in his wellies shaking people’s hands and nodding sympathetically. Then Cameron pulled out a firecracker. He accused Brown of shambolic incompetence in allowing public money to flow into the hands of a front organization for Hizb ut-Tahrir, an extremist group whose constitution denounces non-Moslems in virulent terms. ‘They are combatants in the battlefield. Their blood

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cause for concern

That Ipsos-Mori poll is still making waves, with both Steve Richards and Daniel Finkelstein devoting their columns to the prospects of a hung parliament. Steve is excited by the possibility, thinking that it would restore the Commons to its rightful place as the cockpit of the nation. Danny is concerned by it, fearful of the consitutional damage it could inflict. But it strikes me that the real reason to worry about a hung parliament is the financial markets. How would gilts traders react to a weak government that was incapable of making cuts? One of the few advantages Britain has – as it strugggles to deal with a deficit which

David Blackburn

Missing the point | 25 November 2009

The Today programme really let Paul Myners off the hook this morning. The interviewer obsessed with why the loans had remained secret for so long. It’s a fair question, and it seems bizarre that we only learn of them ten months after the borrowing was repaid in full. However, there are more important questions. As I wrote yesterday, these disclosure’s most potentially volatile revelation is that Gordon Brown was propping up HBOS whilst urging Lloyds to purchase the ailing giant. Was this issue examined in any depth? No, though it must be determined whether the Lloyds’ board understood HBOS’s predicament in its horrific entirety. The equally crucial question of how

David Blackburn

With friends like these | 25 November 2009

Bob Ainsworth has publicly criticised President Obama’s slothful deliberation on an Afghan troop surge. The Defence Secretary said: ‘We have suffered a lot of losses. We have had a period of hiatus while McChrystal’s plan and his requested uplift has been looked at in the detail to which it has been looked at over a period of some months, and we have had the Afghan elections, which have been far from perfect let us say. All of those things have mitigated against our ability to show progress… put that on the other side of the scales when we are suffering the kind of losses that we are.’ I don’t agree

Tuesday

David Blackburn

There are more pressing financial concerns than this

The two top dogs at the Treasury Select Committee, John McFall and Michael Fallon, give remarkably different reactions to the news that ministers withheld details of emergency loans to RBS and Lloyds for over a year. McFall argues that secrecy was necessary to avoid a run on the banks; Fallon expresses outrage that Lloyds’ shareholders were not privy to all information when considering the disastrous purchase of HBOS, urged on them by the Prime Minister.   Both have their points. Blind panic is the defining recollection of those autumnal days. If the situation had been exacerbated by full disclosure of the mess RBS and Lloyds were in then God alone

David Blackburn

Will Chilcot be any different?

The Chilcot inquiry’s precedents don’t auger well. It’s unfair to describe the Hutton and Butler inquiries as ‘whitewashes’, but their colour was certainly off-white. That said, the condemnatory characterisation of Sir John and his panel as ‘establishment figures’ is redolent of a lower-sixth common room circa 1968. Who else could conduct this inquiry? Mohammed al-Fayed? Pete Doherty? The Bishop of Bath and Wells? The Iraq controversy has not abated and a panel of angels would not be pure enough for some. But it’s absurd to suggest that anyone besides officials and foreign policy experts, with an intricate knowledge of the practices and issues concerned, should or can decide such matters.

Peter Hoskin

Yet another poll for the mix

After the Ipsos MORI hullabaloo, it’s tempting to treat the YouGov/Telegraph poll on Westminster voting intentions in Scotland with extreme caution.  But, for the record, here are the headline figures, and a hefty rise for Labour: Labour — 39 percent (up 9 points from August) SNP — 24 percent (down 2) Conservatives — 18 percent (down 2) Lib Dems — 12 percent (down 6) As this fits in with another recent poll, it’s safe to say that Labour have solidified their support in Scotland during and after the Glasgow North by-election.  And there’s more discouraging news for the SNP: at 29 percent, support for Scottish independence is hardly overwhelming –

Peter Hoskin

Mandelson downplays Van Rompuy and Ashton – and bigs up the EU’s financial influence

To my eyes, there’s more than a little dose of mischief in Peter Mandelson’s article for the FT today.  Discussing the recent EU jobs grab, he seems to suggest that the new economic and financial commissioners may have a more important role to play than either Herman Van Rompuy or Lady Ashton, the EU’s president and high representative, respectively: “Some commentators felt that the EU’s choices for its new president and high representative for foreign affairs lacked this kind of continental ambition. Herman Van Rompuy and Lady Ashton will no doubt aim to prove them wrong. But Europe’s dilemma is not just one of influence projection. Europe’s influence will inevitably

Peter Hoskin

Osborne’s recycling giveaway is actually an Age of Austerity measure

I don’t want to be a stick-in-the-mud when it comes to an idea which is actually quite promising, but it’s worth pointing out that George Osborne’s plan to pay people to recycle – featured in quite a few of today’s papers – was first mooted by him back in July 2008.   The difference between then and now?  That this particular nudge was worth up to £360 a year for families who took advantage of it – whereas now the figure has come down to £130 a year.  In which case, it’s probably better to regard at least this part of Osborne’s announcement today as an Age of Austerity-inspired cutback,

Peter Hoskin

A debased database

As with much police work, the questions surrounding a DNA database come down to one thing: striking a balance between civil protection and civil liberties.  Going off a new report by the Human Genetics Commission, reported on the cover of today’s Times, the government are getting that balance seriously wrong: “Jonathan Montgomery, commission chairman, said that ‘function creep’ over the years had transformed a database of offenders into one of suspects. Almost one million innocent people are now on the DNA database… …Professor Montgomery said there was some evidence that people were arrested to retain the DNA information even though they might not have been arrested in other circumstance. He

Monday

James Forsyth

A poll taken at the same time as the Ipsos-Mori poll had the Tories 14 points ahead

The Observer’s Ipsos-Mori poll has dominated political discussion since its publication on Sunday. But two things that I have heard tonight have increased my scepticism that it marks a dramatic shift in public opinion. First, I hear that another of the big pollsters had a survey in the field at the same time and it showed a fourteen point Tory lead. Second, a new poll for Political Betting has Labour down on 22, only a point ahead of the Lib Dems. With polls it is the ones that are surprising that make waves; I’m sure we’ll all run down a few more rabbit holes before election day. The odd surprsingly

David Blackburn

Satire is dead

I laughed more at the Antiques Roadshow than I did at The Thick of It. In fact, finding the louche Eric Knowles delivers more cutting gags per minute than Malcolm Tucker has become a feature of my weekends. And it’s a sad one because The Thick of It was the sharpest and most savage programme on television – a welcome focus for one’s anger at the Labour government. Truth is, Armando Iannucci’s show has dated. The outwardly crisp style of government it satirised has descended into a very public ‘omnishambles’. The reality is funnier than the fiction. The Prime Minister’s belief that he’d saved the world; a 24 hour pursuit

Peter Hoskin

Dodgy expenses referred to the CPS

And so the expenses scandal rumbles on.  This morning’s Telegraph lead with home-flipping allegations against Andrew Dismore, a member of the Commons Committee on Standards and Privileges.  And now it’s emerged that the Met have referred the cases of four parliamentarians to the Crown Prosecution Service.  All of which makes Brown’s decision not to mention expenses in the Queen’s Speech seem even more unwise.

Peter Hoskin

Hold your horses | 23 November 2009

The blogosphere is alight with all kinds of chatter about yesterday’s Ipsos MORI poll for the Observer, which showed Labour closing the gap between them and the Tories to 6 points: from James Macintyre’s claim that the Labour fightback has begun to Nick Robinson’s call for calm.   Myself, I’m on Team Robinson.  Sure, the poll is an eye-opener for CCHQ – but, by itself, it’s hardly evidence of a tidal shift in voting intentions.  Indeed, going off two very useful posts by Anthony Wells and Stephan Shakespeare, there’s a considerable chance that this is a rogue. Polls will always be imperfect, but they’ve been particularly volatile recently.  Since party

Peter Hoskin

Bradshaw goes to war against the Sun

Peter Mandelson has already claimed that the Tories and the Sun have “effectively formed a contract”, but today Ben Bradshaw takes the insinuations even further.  Here’s the relevant passage from his interview with the Guardian, with my emphasis in bold: “Echoing the views of the business secretary, Lord Mandelson, Bradshaw says of News International and the Tories: ‘There is no doubt there’s a deal … The Tories have basically subcontracted their media and broadcasting policy to News International. It’s brazen.’ He fires off a list of Tory policies – including a commitment to TV news free from impartiality rules and Cameron’s promise to rein in the media regulator, Ofcom –

Peter Hoskin

Brown goes for growth – fails

So the dividing line persists.  Today, both Gordon Brown and David Cameron will talk about “going for growth” at the CBI’s annual conference.  But it all, more or less, comes down to the same, dreary “investment vs cuts” line that we’ve heard countless times before.  According to the Times, Brown is going to say that growth is the best way of tackling the deficit, rather than those nasty Tory cuts.  And, what’s more, “he hopes investment from China will drive the recovery”. Of course, growth will have a role to play in reducing the deficit.  A vibrant economy will have a better chance of tackling record deficits and debt levels