Uk politics

Willetts takes on the nudgers

The Guardian’s interview with David Willetts is a decent preview of the Tories’ forthcoming green paper on family policy, and is neatly summarised by Jonathan Isaby here. Although I have my doubts about some Tory thinking in this area, there are a few encouraging ideas in there – such as relationship guidance schemes modelled on those provided by the Bristol community family trust. One of the most eye-catching passages of the interview comes when Willetts takes on the “nudgers” in his own party, who are keen on influencing public behaviour but feel that promoting marriage may be a step too far: “Willetts believes that marriage should be promoted and protected as he expresses

James Forsyth

What happened the last time Gove played Cameron’s opponent in debate prep

One of the surprises of the Tory leadership campaign in 2005 was how David Davis bested David Cameron in the TV debate between the two men. Those involved in Cameron’s preparations for that debate blame Cameron’s poor performance on how Michael Gove knocked Cameron’s confidence in the run up to it. Gove was Davis in debate prep and played Davis as a ferociously clever, Oxford Union-style debater and kept leaving Cameron tied in knots. So it is interesting that the Cameron camp have again chosen Gove to play the role of Cameron’s opponent in the run up to a TV debate. This time Gove will, of course, be playing the

Those split stories just won’t go away…

A hefty one-two punch in the continuing “Have Gordon and Peter fallen out?” story, this morning.  The Telegraph has quotes suggesting that Mandelson is “upset” and feels “disposed of” by Brown.  And Sue Cameron of the FT details a specific rift between the pair, ending with the observation: “I hear Lord M is not happy, telling friends that he does not have the influence he was promised.”  For his part, Mandelson has since dismissed the reports as “complete tosh”. Problem is, for Downing Street, the truth of the stories is almost immaterial.  After a relatively stable few months, Brown is once again mired in rumour and speculation concerning his own

Call yourself a PR man?

The latest Comres poll for the Independent indicates, as if we needed telling, that the Tories are yet to seal the deal. It’s far from panic stations – the lead remains at 9 points – but there are two figures that prove where the Tories are going wrong. The majority of respondents feel that a Conservative government would exclusively represent the interests of the rich, and the contention that the Tories represent an appealing alternative to Labour was rejected. If Cameron is merely a PR man I hope he’s cheap. Aside from Alex Salmond I can’t envisage anything worse than five more years of Gordon, and this suggests to me

The politics of self-defence

The spin machines are gearing up as we amble towards an election, and strategists’ latest hobby-horse is self-defence. Following the sentencing of Munir Hussain, Alan Johnson admitted feeling “uncomfortable” about Judge Reddihough’s decision. Never one to miss the bus, Chris Grayling went further and faster, suggesting that householders should be immune from prosecution unless they had responded in a “grossly disproportionate” fashion.   It’s rather unfair, but deliciously cutting, of cartoonists to portray Grayling as a plump second hand car salesman posing as James Bond, but Grayling deserves criticism because “grossly disproportionate” is as ill-defined as the “reasonable force” that current legislation describes. Conservative proposals would still leave decisions entirely

James Forsyth

No Christmas cheer in the Mail for Cameron

The Daily Mail sets about David Cameron in its editorial today. It accuses him of “insulting voters’ intelligence”, tells him to “avoid the PR men, spivs and trashy celebrities with whom he has taken to mixing” and advises him to “spend less time with his spin-doctors, worrying about his image and trying to be all things to all men.”   The Mail matters. Privately Tory strategists admit that its savaging of Cameron’s shift in European policy played a considerable part in depressing the certainty of Tory supporters to vote, one of the reasons for the party’s lead narrowing in the polls. If the Mail was fully on board with Project

Will this be the game-changer that Brown needs?

So there we have it.  There will be televised election debates between the three main party leaders during the next election campaign, after all.  The first will be on ITV, then there’ll be one each on Sky and the BBC.  Talk about good TV for political anoraks. Like Tim Montgomerie and Mike Smithson, I suspect that Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg will be happiest with the news.  Both of them, particularly Brown, need potential game-changing events like this to make some progress in the polls.   As for Cameron, he’d probably be better off not giving his opponents a chance to make inroads into the Tories’ poll lead.  But he

Is the EU not glamorous enough for Lord Mandelson?

James Macintyre is well connected among Mandelson’s associates and he discloses that Gordon Brown agreed to back Mandelson if he chose to board the Eurotrain once more. Macintyre describes the revelation as a ‘demonstration of the supportive dynamic between what were at one time bitter enemies’, that’s true, though Brown would scarcely brand his right hand man an overrated liability. What’s more intriguing is why Mandelson chose not to apply for the job of EU foreign minister, which he considered for a time. Baroness Ashton can only expect to exercise ‘quiet diplomacy’ at best, which is unlikely to appeal to a man of Mandelson’s tastes. As Fraser noted yesterday and

Simple but effective?

It’s the most straightforward dividing line the Tories could draw: “Tories good, Labour bad”.  But it’s still striking to see it deployed quite so bluntly as in George Osborne’s Telegraph article this morning.  His point is that four more years of Labour will lead us to ruin, whereas a Conservative government would pull us out of the mire.  Here are some snippets: “Down the path of least resistance lie economic decline, higher interest rates, high unemployment, and more social breakdown. This is the path down which a cynical and exhausted Labour Government tempts us. But there is another path that leads to lasting recovery, rising prosperity, social responsibility and a

It’s the economy, isn’t it?

The Tories’ 17 point  lead in this morning’s Observer Ipsos-Mori poll has got tongues wagging. The headline figure is that confidence in the economy, and by extension the government’s management of it, has collapsed since the PBR. Just 32 percent of voters believe the economy will improve in 2010, compared to 46% last month. The politics of debt and the public finances appear to have swung decisively in favour of the Conservatives, and the leadership must press that advantage all the way to the ballot box. But the economy represents only part of the explanation. Anthony Wells’ digest of the poll is a must read, and he notes that the ‘lack of political weighting’ has ‘produced such extreme switches

Labour calls cease-fire on binge drinking

The government has sued for peace. The Observer reports that in the face of lobbying from the drinks industry, the government has dropped its mandatory code on the sale of alcohol, which Gordon Brown first brewed-up during the local election campaign. Labour excuses the u-turn on the grounds that vulnerable pubs and drinks retail industry must remain viable during this fragile economic situation. On the face of it, that is sensible; delve deeper and that excuse does not hold. Of course, there’s no sense in endangering businesses by punishing all drinks deals and ‘happy hour’ promotions. However, aspects of the code would have outlawed promotions such as ‘all you can

Fraser Nelson

Mayor Mandelson?

When Mandelson said in his Spectator interview that he plans another 15 to 20 years in politics, what could he have meant? Now that his European career is over, there is only one decent post coming up for a Labour figure in the first half of the next decade – and I float the latest theory in my News of the World column today: that Mandy might stand as Mayor of London in 2012. A bizarre notion, I grant you, but no less bizarre than his CV to date – and Ken Livingstone is certainly taking the prospect seriously. Whoever the Labour candidate, they have a pretty good chance given

The pessimism of the left

Like David, I’m a fan of Polly Toynbee. Every compass needle needs a butt end, after all. She is 180 degrees wrong on most things: but splendidly, eloquently, passionately wrong. I’d like to pick up on one aspect of her column. “Social democrats are the world’s optimists, knowing human destiny is in our own hands if we have the will to change. Leave pessimism to the world’s conservatives, ever fearful of the future and yearning for a better yesterday.” Now, I have also seen this as a fundamental difference between left and right but (needless to say) the other way around. And it all comes down to your views of

James Forsyth

Cameron plans to lighten up

David Cameron’s interview with Tim Shipman suggests that the Tory leader is about to undergo a course correction. The Tories have, rightly, begun to be frank with the public about the cuts that will need to be made and have, again rightly, refused to rule out a short-term rise in VAT. But the ‘we’re all in this together’ rhetoric has only been applied to the tough measures that are needed now not the prosperity that might follow in years to come. If Cameron is to start showing the public more of his vision of where he wants to take Britain then that is to be welcomed. But he also needs

Slightly surprising stat of the day

According to a YouGov poll in tomorrow’s People (reported by the paper’s political editor, Nigel Nelson, on Twitter): “1% more people would rather have G.Brown than D.Cameron round for Christmas dinner.” There’s better news elsewhere in the poll for the Tories: the gap between them and Labour is back in double digits.  It’s the Tories on 40 percent, Labour on 28, and the Lib Dems on 18.

The dangers with a Tory policy blitz

Sounds like the Tories are going to go policy-heavy in the New Year.  According to this morning’s Times, Team Cameron are going to publish a “draft election manifesto” around 4 January, which will – as James revealed in his political column this week – set up a “policy-a-day blitz” throughout the rest of the month.  There will also be a separate policy release “showcasing the party’s commitment to the NHS”.  The thinking is that all this will regain some momentum for the party, as well as answering the charge that the Tory operation lacks substance. Question is: will it work?  Well, we’ve often called for more detail from the Tory

The case for John Hutton as a New Labour hero

Ok, so identifying the heroes of the New Labour era may not sit well with CoffeeHousers – but I’d still recommend you read through the latest Bagehot column in the Economist, which does just that.  It identifies five figures from the past 12 years who have “done the state and country some serious and lasting service,” and whose “virtues [are] not be clouded or cancelled by grave mistakes or misdemeanours”.  They are: Lord Adonis, Donald Dewar, Lord Mandelson, Sir William Macpherson and Robin Cook.  James Purnell, Alistair Darling and, strikingly, Bill Clinton finish in the runners-up list. You can debate the merits and demerits of those names all day long,

The High Court’s decision on BA concerned law, not politics

The Guardian’s Seumas Milne condemns the BA strike judgement as ‘blatantly political’. He writes: ‘Mrs Justice Cox has made a transparently political decision to skew the balance of power still further in favour of BA’s recklessly incompetent management.’ That, as Mrs Thatcher would say, is poppycock. Mrs Justice Cox’s decision was informed by law, not ideology. Unite had balloted ineligible members, which is illegal. That the result of the ballot would not have changed is immaterial, Unite broke the law. In this instance, the legal decision will enable a sensible business plan time to develop. After years of procrastination and painting tail wings, the BA board is realistic about the

Fraser Nelson

Cutting the deficit sooner won’t risk the recovery

Would cutting spending “risk the recovery?” This claim is, literally, Gordon Brown’s re-election manifesto. He is hoping that the Tories haven’t learned to use numbers as weapons – so any economic message he has will not be effectively countered. In fact, his claim is very easily exposed as being bogus by a simple look at recent British economic history. Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day shows that economic growth in the past two recessions (white line) was not at all threatened by fiscal tightening (green graph). Even Goldman Sachs – which is acquiring a reputation as the Labour Party’s house broker – is conceding the central point.  I hope Bloomberg won’t

Festive cheer

Well, Nick Clegg’s reponse to the Labour chief whip’s Christmas card made me smile: “Both myself and Nick Brown have good reason to be embarrassed. I posed for pictures in ridiculous fancy dress 20 years ago – and he is an MP for the Labour Party.” Hat-tip for the picture: the FT’s Jim Pickard