Uk politics

Monday

David Blackburn

Electoral wipe-out

The extremely well-connected Jackie Ashley makes this astonishing prediction in this morning’s Guardian: ‘Some Labour people may think I’m sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible.’ Surely it can’t be that bad? Surely? I would discount this prediction entirely but for the fact that Ashley is the best connected centre-left writer around. The figure is probably exaggerated, but

David Blackburn

Renewed tension between Brown and Darling

Alistair Darling did look slightly apprehensive when Gordon Brown gatecrashed the G20 finance meeting on Saturday. And how right Darling was: the Prime Minister’s Tobin tax proposal was met with gawping disbelief; it was as if Bernie Madoff had strolled into the room as the new head of the IMF. It is very telling that only the disingenuous French, who can’t believe their luck, support the proposals. The FT reports that Darling is livid that Brown would risk alienating the UK by announcing a policy that he knew the US and others would publicly oppose. The ploy may have been a desperate vote grab, but the Global Statesman of the

David Blackburn

From maladroit to managed

Labour has at last acknowledged the damage the BNP’s rise has caused them. Interviewed by Andrew Neil, Peter Hain admitted that government failure on housing and migration had heightened the BNP’s appeal, and, in an interview in this morning’s Independent, Alan Johnson elaborates on his claim that successive governments have been “maladroit” in handling immigration. “Part of its (the BNP’s) attraction is that it is raising things that other political parties don’t raise. It would take the absence of a national debate as the green light to distort the debate. It has absolutely no inhibition about lying about these issues.” Griffin’s and Brons’ victory proved that starving the BNP of

Sunday

David Blackburn

If you must deceive, deceive competently

On 15th September, Gordon Brown finally uttered the word ‘cuts’, but he diluted the shock by pledging that frontline services would be protected. He told the TUC: “But when our plans are published in the coming months, people will see that Labour will not support cuts in vital frontline services on which people depend. Labour will not put the recovery at risk, protect and improve your frontline services first and make the right choices for low and middle income families in the country.” Today, some of those plans are published, albeit inadvertently in a document leaked to the Observer. Cuts are being planned in next year’s skills budget. 335,000 learners

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Rank desperation

Gordon Brown’s suggestion for a Tobin tax would, if implemented, crucify the City of London. We are the largest foreign exchange centre in the world and that Brown is seriously suggesting hitting this industry is a sure sign he does not expect to be in government after the election. It is the proposal that a British prime Minister should be dying in a ditch to kill off given that the City generates about a tenth of Britain’s economic wealth. The kind of proposal that might be aired by a Frenchman, purely to outrage Britain. It is, of course, a trick: Brown knows it won’t be agreed because it requires the

David Blackburn

Scorching the earth

Tim Montgomerie is right; Peter Oborne is at his best in the Mail today – a mix of relevant history and sharp analysis of current affairs. Like Callaghan and Major before him, Gordon Brown faces electoral defeat. Brown’s predicament is deep – consistently loathed by the electorate and the target of unhatched coups and constant intrigue. How does a prime minister defend a hopeless position? Does he govern in the best interests of the country, his party, or himself? Oborne remarks about the magnanimity of Callaghan and Major and notes that Brown has not followed their example. ‘The truth is that Gordon Brown is now governing Britain purely for partisan

Friday

David Blackburn

Hain’s hollow rhetoric 

This week’s interviewee on the BBC’s Straight Talk with Andrew Neil is Peter Hain. One of the topics for discussion is Labour’s disengagement with its core vote and the rise of the BNP. Hain admits that this can be ascribed to Labour’s failings and Westminster’s disengagement with voters. Certainly, Labour’s failure on housing and migration has been a major factor in Griffin’s rise. But there is nothing to suggest that Labour has the political strength to re-engage. Even after the recent furore, there have been no new initiatives on housing or migration, just pitiful contrition in the place of action. Hain’s outright refusal to share a platform with the BNP

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why the Euro-sceptics are quietly confident

On Wednesday afternoon few of us would have thought that the row over the Tories’ Europe policy would appear to have died down by Friday afternoon. There have been a couple of resignations from the Tory front bench in the European Parliament, a few MPs have mouthed off and a French foreign minister has launched a spectacular—and stupidly phrased attack on it. But it is all quiet out there now. The main reason for this is that the Euro-sceptics are quietly confident. The overwhelming mood among those I have spoken to is that Cameron either has to get the powers back he said he would and show that his measure

Theo Hobson Theo Hobson

A careful believer

Is David Cameron religious? In the course of his interview with the Evening Standard he provides a clear glimpse of his attitude to religion. He sees it as something that should be advocated with the utmost care, if votes are not to be squandered. He is asked if faith in God is important to him. “If you are asking, do I drop to my knees and pray for guidance, no. But do I have faith and is it important, yes. My own faith is there, it’s not always the rock that perhaps it should be.” Hmmm. Surely praying for God’s guidance is a basic part of Christian faith, and nothing

David Blackburn

Quantatitive Easing is an affront to democracy

Readers of the Spectator will know George Trefgarne’s work, and today he delivered an important report on the dangers of Quantitative Easing. I urge Coffee Housers to read the speech. It provides an interesting and relevant insight into historical precedents for the policy and how to manage it, and gives a balanced analysis of the current policy’s pros and cons. Trefgarne concurs with Mark Bathgate’s critique. There is little evidence that QE has stimulated money supply, as banks are using the cash to re-balance their lop-sided books. QE is funding the government’s debt habit. The IMF estimates that QE has reduced the benchmark 10-year interest rate on government debt by

David Blackburn

Positive polls for Cameron’s European policy

So, has he got away with it? The press reaction to the Tories’ new European policy has been generally positive, or at least understanding that Cameron did the best he could in impossible circumstances. Only the Daily Mail and Melanie Phillips voiced ideological objections. More importantly, Messrs Davis, Redwood, Cash et al have not broken ranks – this reflects the policy’s essential euroscpeticism as much as it does party discipline. Most important of all, the above Politics Home poll suggests that the public back the long-term policy, adapted to new circumstances, and do not think that Cameron has broken a promise.   But, the overwhelming majority want a referendum on

Thursday

James Forsyth

The fierce urgency of education reform

Michael Gove is giving a speech tonight reaffirming the Tory plans for radical education reform. In it Gove deploys a battery of statistics to show just how comprehensively the current system has failed. The one that stood out most dramatically to me was this one: “Out of 75,000 children eligible for free school meals only 5,000 were even entered for A level. Of that 189, only 75 were boys.  Yet in the same year Eton had 175 boys who got 3As at A level.  One school with almost two and a half times as many boys getting 3As as the entire population of our poorest boys on benefit.” If this

Mark Bathgate

Printing money is not the solution

With another £40bn disappearing down the black hole known as the British Banking sector, the financial cost of the economic and banking collapse is now only rivaled by the two World Wars in it’s cost to the UK taxpayer. Rather than going to support credit to business or households, the further £25bn of “newly printed money” announced today is likely to go to help prop up the Government debt mountain.   The above chart shows how the Bank of England has been using quantative easing since March. 98.8 per cent has been used to purchase Gilts. As fast as the Debt Management Office “sells” Gilts to the “market”, the Bank

David Blackburn

Leaked minutes reveal a party short on ideas and low on confidence

It’s worth flagging up the minutes of a regional Labour Party meeting, dated 2 November, that have been leaked to Iain Dale. The first stand out passage shows the Labour Party’s reliance on Barack Obama as a source of inspiration: ‘Claude[Moraes MEP] has been to Washington DC where Obama administration key players made it clear they don’t want to have to deal with a Eurosceptic Tory Government here as they want to be able to deal with the EU as a whole.’ Iain argues that the claim has no basis in fact. But, as Daniel Korski pointed out recently, it is clear that the US administration would prefer to work

David Blackburn

A bit of French stock in play

Describing foreign dignitaries as ‘castrated’ and ‘autistic’ is terribly Gallic. As a rule, British politicians tend not to invoke ‘sensitive conditions’ to aid their critiques and the force of their rhetoric. I can’t imagine Chris Bryant, for instance, describing David Cameron’s euroscepticism as ‘autistic’ – he’d probably even baulk at describing it as ‘political halitosis’, preferring wink-wink, nudge-nudge gags about “cast-iron guarantees”. It is because this expansive sensationalism is so alien to our political culture that Pierre Lellouche’s comments sound so provocative and make Mr Cameron’s ambitions look unrealisable, with Europe seemingly united against him. The intention is to be provocative, but superficially so, because Lellouche’s comments are, of course,

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Labour and the KGB

How close were Labour and the Soviets during the cold war? At the time, many newspapers were on the hunt for links – but allegations were hard to prove. Today, the Spectator tells the story from the horse’s mouth – Anatoly Chernyaev, the Kremlin’s link man with Labour in the 70s and 80s. Unbeknown to his visitors – Michael Foot (who welcomed Brezhnev as ‘comrade’) and even Charles Clarke (who comes out of this quite well) Chernyaev was keeping a diary. It shows how various Labour visitors begged for help – after all, Labour and the Soviets had a common enemy: the Conservatives. They said so in terms. Edward Short,

David Blackburn

Fifth columnists

The Afghan police were supposed to be layabout drug addicts and petty crooks, but that the force has been infiltrated by murderous, cowardly fifth columnists has concentrated Westminster minds. Current strategy in Afghanistan is failing. Paddy Ashdown’s is one of the most distinct voices on Afghanistan; and although he resembles a crazed Cockleshell hero when in full flow, he provides much needed clarity. In an op-ed in this morning’s Times, he writes: ‘It is at the political, not the military, level that we are failing. And if we did not have enough problems already, we now have a Government in Kabul whose legitimacy has been fatally damaged and for whom

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

There is only one question that frightens Brussels

So David Cameron will let it rest there after all.  And in fairness to him, he can do nothing else. Thanks to the Blair/Brown stitch up, Britain has no options left. It never did. Cameron knows that and today’s speech was just a longwinded way of saying it. He is right not to promise what he calls a “made-up referendum”, that would accomplish nothing other then vent rage. But nor should he kid us all that he is going to renegotiate some powers back from Brussels. That would need the unanimous approval of all other member states, and it would never be granted. If Britain were to repatriate powers, then

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

How much longer must we wait?

Cameron had little choice today. At PMQs he played it sober and he played it statesmanlike. The Afghan issue, which is close to becoming a crisis, dominated the session. Both main party leaders were standing shoulder to shoulder, and Cameron used five of his six questions asking the same thing. ‘Are we both right in thinking we’re both right?’ Yes, said the PM, we’re right. Afghanistan’s salvation lies in the usual mantras. More ‘training up’ of security services, more help for the economy, greater attempts to root out corruption etc. It must all be ‘better targeted’ and ‘more focused’. The question of a ‘single, strong co-ordinating figure’ is being discussed

Mark Bathgate

Failing to address the banking crisis is hampering recovery

As another £30 billion of taxpayers’ money is handed over to banks, the role of banking sector in the continuing UK recession cannot be understated. 1990s Japan taught the world that developed economies with zombie banking systems don’t grow.  Crippled by bad debts, lending margins on solvent borrowers increase, credit availability declines and ongoing bailouts are needed. This hampers growth in the rest of the economy. The more indebted the private sector, the greater the damage a bust banking system inflicts. The above chart shows how margins on UK mortgages – the gap between borrowing from the Bank of England and what is then leant to mortgage holders – have