Uk politics

Tuesday

Mark Bathgate

The bills just keep coming in

Two years after Northern Rock became the first bank failure of this crisis, another £30 billion of taxpayers’ money needs to be thrown at the banking system. Behind all the noise about improving competition and the European Commission lies one core fact: the UK banks have lost an astonishing sum of money. The above chart shows bank losses as a percentage share of GDP, and illustrates the scale of the crisis that has overwhelmed the banking system and the taxpayer. The IMF estimates that losses could be as high as 25% of UK GDP.   UK banks went on an orgy of lending around the world, becoming the biggest source

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What Cameron should now say about Europe

The accusations of betrayal being hurled at David Cameron are, for the reasons I outlined earlier, deeply unfair. It is Labour that has broken its promise, not the Tories – a point that the Tories should be shouting from the rooftops. Also, Euro-sceptics should remember that Cameron did keep the pledge he made during the leadership to take the party out of the EPP despite the many siren voices urging him to renege on this commitment.  The whole referendum question, though, is turning into one of trust. Part of the reason for this is that the Tory leadership always seems slightly embarrassed by the issue of Europe. So it is

David Blackburn

Vaclav Klaus signs the Lisbon Treaty

According to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, Czech President Vaclav Klaus has signed the Lisbon Treaty. As James wrote this morning, Cameron has not broken any promise concerning a referendum because there was no such pledge except under circumstances that have passed; but Cameron must now detail how he intends to repatriate powers and obtain an opt-out from the Social Chapter. What is peculiar is how this has become a story about the Tories breaking pledges. It should be nothing of the sort. That ‘honour’ lies squarely with Brown and Blair. Labour’s mock-outraged line that Cameron has ‘”reneged on his cast-iron guarantee” defies belief; it’s incredible, brazen and unmistakably wrong. I

David Blackburn

Next step for banks provides further vindication of Osborne

Alistair Darling has unveiled the initial phase of his plan to get the majority state owned banks back into private ownership. RBS and Lloyds will dispose of more than 918 retail branches across the country over the next four years and will receive up to £40bn of taxpayer funds to strengthen their capital bases. In exchange for this injection, both banks have deferred cash bonuses for 2009. Also, Lloyds will not join the government’s asset protection scheme by securing £13.5bn privately through a rights issue. There is an argument that the government should have gone further and demanded the complete separation of retail and investment arms, followed by additional demergers,

James Forsyth James Forsyth

One in five children live in jobless households

The Guardian reports this morning that, “One in five – two million – British children now live in households where neither parent has a job.” This is an incredibly worrying statistic. The evidence suggests that worklessness is corrosive and soul-destroying. A child growing up in a workless household will, for obvious reasons, tend to have limited ambitions and opportunity. Obviously, as the economy recovers this number should go down — the recent rise indicates that many of these parents have been laid off in recent months. But even before the credit crunch really kicked in, there were more than 1.8 million children living in workless households. Welfare reform must aim

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron hasn’t broken a pledge on Europe

With the Czech constitutional court’s decision removing one of the final barriers to ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, attention is turning to what the Tories will do next. What we know they won’t do is hold a post-ratification referendum. This is prompting cries of betrayal from some. But this charge is unfair. Cameron’s “cast-iron pledge” has been overtaken by events — the treaty will already have been ratified by the time Cameron comes to power and so a referendum would only be demonstrative. This is one of those instances where an analogy can be instructive.  Imagine if someone trying to buy Liverpool Football Club gave a ‘cast-iron’ guarantee that they

David Blackburn

Public contempt for political elites extends beyond the expenses scandal

Rachel Sylvester’s essential Times column describes the ‘Court of Public Opinion’ as a lynch mob that must be placated by MPs embracing the Kelly Review. She writes: ‘The real problem about expenses is that they have made it harder for politicians to show leadership about the things that matter far more. The verdict of the court of public opinion is too harsh on many MPs. But unless they accept it, serve the sentence and move on, they will never be able to convince the voters to listen to them on anything else.’ Even if MPs accept the Kelly Review in its entirety, grovel, flagellate and repent, the Court of Public

Monday

James Forsyth

A Grieve error

The Conservative leadership claims that a British Bill of Rights would serve to guide judges in interpreting the European Convention on Human Rights and so give Britain some discretion in how the rights which exist in the Charter — many of which are vague — are applied in this country. But in the new issue of Standpoint the eminent legal commentator Joshua Rozenberg reports that Dominic Grieve, the shadow justice secretary and a firm supporter of the ECHR, thinks that a British Bill of Rights would only be introduced towards the end of a Cameron first term and might well not be on the statue book by the end of

David Blackburn

The Euroball is rolling

Well, it hasn’t taken long, but outright opposition to the Tories’ new stance on Europe is underway. Conservative Home has a copy of an email sent by Bill Cash calling for a full referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Here’s the key section: ‘As David Cameron has said, we need an association of member states. In order to achieve this, we cannot simply cherry-pick individual aspects of the treaty and call for renegotiation of those. We need a full referendum on Lisbon as we were promised and as we voted in the House of Commons. No ifs or buts. This is about the Government of the United Kingdom operating in line

Daniel Korski

The end of special relationships

Today, two of my colleagues, former senior MoD official Nick Witney and US analyst Jeremy Shapiro, issued a hard-hitting report about transatlantic relationships. Their message is simple. Europe has the US president it wished for, but Barack Obama lacks the strong transatlantic partner he desired. With EU leaders heading to Washington for their transatlantic summit on 3 November, Shapiro and Witney caution European governments: an unsentimental President Obama has already lost patience with a Europe lacking coherence and purpose. In a post-American world, the United States knows it needs effective partners. And if Europe cannot step up, the US will look for other privileged partners to do business with. Unfortunately,

David Blackburn

Wilshire: This is exactly how Nazi Germany started

No it isn’t. The disgraced Tory MP, David Wilshire, who used £105,000 in Commons’ offices expenses to pay for a company owned by him and his good lady and was forced to stand down at the next election, has, with a flair for historical analysis possessed only by geographers, written to his constituents: ‘The witch hunt against MPs in general will undermine democracy. It will weaken parliament – handing yet more power to governments. Branding a whole group of people as undesirables led to Hitler’s gas chambers.’ Jacqui Smith and Tony McNulty cast themselves as victims, which defied belief. But Wilshire’s attempt is worthy of Basil Fawlty in its absurdity;

David Blackburn

Nanny knows best

Does Professor David Nutt’s dismissal concern the impossibility of relaxing drugs legislation, or the relationship between experts and ministers? David Nutt was sacked because he spoke the unspeakable and criticised the government for failing to acknowledge the self-evident scientific truth that horse-riding, especially after quaffing sherry, is more dangerous than taking ecstasy and dancing maniacally in a night club. As Bruce Anderson notes in today’s Independent, it is impossible to have a rational debate about drugs. The politics of narcotics always trumps evidence. Despite David Nutt’s eminently sensible view that classification must reflect quantifiable harm, for the benefit of proportionate punishment and effective education, disassociation from any leniency on drugs is a

Sunday

James Forsyth

The Tories’ new line on Europe

Tim Montgomerie has the scoop that the Tories will not hold a referendum on Lisbon if it has been ratified by the next general election. A vote on Lisbon once it had been ratified would only have had moral force so the Tory policy shift is not a betrayal of Euro-scepticism. However, the party will seek a ‘manifesto mandate’ to begin negotiations to repatriate powers. The challenge for the Tories is to persuade the other member states to allow Britain to take back powers.  As Tim says, the Tories will need a savvy negotiator with strong Euro-sceptic instincts to take charge of this process. To my mind, Theresa Villiers, a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Until Ashcroft is clear about his tax status, the press will make a mountain out of everything he does

I have long thought that the secrecy surrounding Lord Ashcroft’s tax affairs is a strategic liability for the Conservative party. The Conservatives should be able to say if their party vice-chairmen is domiciled in this country for tax purposes. Indeed, openness about this point should be a condition of him holding the position. The Observer today has a front page story about Ashcroft’s involvement in William Hague’s trip to the US. But even given my concerns about Ashcroft, I fail to see the evidence produced as particularly worrying. We know that Ashcroft has flown members of the shadow Cabinet around before—David Cameron even took a flight back from the 2007

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Miliband, Sting, Marr and breakfast

I’m midway through the Andrew Marr show – did the papers and am going back on in a bit to nod appreciatively at Sting – and the main topic is Miliband as EU Foreign Secretary. That Banana boy is being spoken of is not a compliment. The person they want in that job will be a cipher who will obey the orders of the ministers and visit cities that only Robin Cook* would have heard of. But it wil keep him out of the running to challenge Ed Balls for the Labour party leadership. Sting is banging on about how “we need the winter” and it is somehow under threat

Saturday

Daniel Korski

Even in Afghanistan, an election needs at least two candidates

Just when the US administration thought it had turned a corner in Afghanistan by persuading Hamid Karzai to allow a run-off in the presidential elections, things look uncertain again. Having returned from a trip to India, President Karzai’s election rival Abdullah Abdullah looks set to announce he will boycott next week’s second round of voting. Such a decision could either be the prelude to a resolution of the crisis, or set the stage for political crisis. It is more likely going to be the latter. Before Karzai was persuaded to allow a run-off, some diplomats I spoke to were suggesting that a power-sharing arrangement could be put in place or

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

According to Smith and McNulty, MPs, not taxpayers, are the victims of the expenses scandal

You have to admire the magnificent, brazen, blank-faced nerve of Jacqui Smith – the former Home Secretary who could not be entirely sure where her home was. Appearing on Question Time on Thursday, her demeanour flitted between confected contrition and self-righteous indignation – always, at the end of every sentence, coming to rest on the latter. Jacqui, you will recall, claimed that her second home was her proper four-bedroomed family home in her constituency, Redditch, and that her main home was a room rented in her sister’s house. She did this in order to get more money from the taxpayer – as a consequence she was required to apologise to

Marjorie Ellis-Thompson

Reward for failure

My postman and me – aside from the fact that we both come out in hives whenever we hear the words ‘reform’ and ‘modernisation’, which have both ceased to have genuine meaning under ‘new’ Labour we know what it’s like to have Adam Crozier as a boss.  For Alexander (my postman) he is a remote figure, seen on TV or caricatured in cartoons passed around by protestors. He is Britain’s highest paid public servant and got a £15K bonus after only two months in the job, which is probably as much as some of the staff make. I encountered him at Saatchi &Saatchi. Within six weeks he was trying to close down

David Blackburn

Commanders on the ground were concerned about helicopter shortages

The Mail has obtained a memo sent to the MoD by Lieutenant Colonel Rupert Thorneloe. He warns that helicopter shortages would cost lives; tragically, he was prescient. The Mail is not publishing the complete memo, which contains sensitive information, but Lt. Col Thorneloe wrote: ‘We cannot not move people, so this moth we have concluded a great deal of administrative movement by road. This increases the IED threat and our exposure to it… The current level of SH (support helicopter) support is therefore unsustainable… and is clearly not fit for purpose.’ This appraisal, widely circulated within the MoD, demolishes Gordon Brown’s denial that helicopter shortages cost lives during Operation Panther’s

Friday

Daniel Korski

Even under the Tories, President Blair will be our man in Brussels 

In his column, James asks the key question about Tony Blair’s candidature for President of the European Council: what would it do for the Tories and Britain’s foreign policy. William Hague clearly thinks it would be a bad thing and has been lobbying against Blair’s candidacy.   The Shadow Foreign Secretary is letting his anti-EU, anti-Labour views cloud his judgement. Let me explain. If the Tories win, Labour will be in the doldrums, a shadow of its former self. The idea that the party will mount a challenge to a Conservative government by rallying around an EU-focused Tony Blair is unbelievable. Romani Prodi may have jumped from an EU job