Uk politics

Wednesday

Ross Clark

Philip Hammond has exposed the problem with the Treasury’s Brexit forecast

It is the decimal point which really gets me. If we have a ‘no deal’ Brexit, according to Treasury forecasters, the economy will be 7.6 per cent lower in 15 years’ time than it would be if we didn’t leave the EU. What, not 7.7 per cent? It is an age-old trick: express your guesswork with a decimal point or two on the end and hope that it sounds a bit more convincing, as if a bit more science has gone into it. But sorry, the Treasury should not be fooling anyone this time. It is politically interesting that Philip Hammond told the Today programme this morning that he thinks

The Spectator

Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year 2018: the winners

The Spectator’s 32nd Parliamentarian of the Year awards took place at the Rosewood Hotel in London this evening. The awards were presented by Liz Truss. Here are the winners: Backbencher of the year – Maria Miller Speech of the year – Margaret Hodge Minister of the year – Geoffrey Cox Campaigner of the year – David Lammy Inquisitor of the year – Yvette Cooper Comeback of the year – Emily Thornberry Resignation of the year (Minister) – Tracey Crouch Resignation of the year (Cabinet) – Dominic Raab; David Davis Peer of the year – Viscount Hailsham Politician of the year – John McDonnell Parliamentarian of the year – Frank Field

Charles Moore Charles Moore

The UK must avoid the backstop trap

Theresa May, William Hague and others say that the EU will not want to trap Britain in the backstop because it is not in its interest. It will want to move to a free-trade agreement for its own benefit. If that is so, why is the backstop the thing above all others upon which the EU insists? One reason why Brexiteers have to oppose the backstop absolutely is that it is yet another manifestation of Britain’s delusion in every European negotiation over nearly 50 years, which is that we should grab ‘practical’ advantages and concede ‘windy’ principles. This sounds good, but it invariably means that we are trapped later. The principles acquire

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Is the May-Corbyn television debate pointless?

Theresa May has two weeks to sell her deal to MPs ahead of the meaningful vote on Tuesday 11 December. The fact that Philip Hammond used an interview this morning meant for selling the deal to state that at present there was no consensus in favour of it tells you everything you need to know about how that is going. There are gloomy estimates that the government could lose the vote by as much as 200 – that seems steep but a defeat around the 100 mark is beginning to seem likely. So, how does No.10 plan to turn things around? There’s a special Brexit grid which will see a

Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

The quack doctors of Brexit ignore the cure to Britain’s strife

The British are like patients with an incurable illness. Thinking and worrying can do no good, but those who understand Britain’s sickness can think of nothing else. Rationally, we understand there is nothing we can do about Brexit until and unless the balance of forces shifts in Westminster. No one knows what will happen next. No one can say when the European question will be settled, and we will be free to to get on with our lives as best we can. All options have been discussed to the point of exhaustion and beyond. But like patients who cannot shut their illness from their minds, we can’t help ourselves. We

Tuesday

Robert Peston

Could Jeremy Corbyn be about to back a second referendum?

We’ve all been focussing on the crisis that would ensue if – as expected – the PM loses the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal ‪on 11 December‬. But just for a moment think about the implications if she wins, because they too would be momentous. To state the obvious, we’d be out of the EU on terms that are semi-blind – we wouldn’t know our long-term destination. But we would be out. And she, the PM, would rein supreme. She would have crushed her opponents, who would have lost all hope of political advancement or favour. And having delivered Brexit against the odds, she could be pretty confident in

Matt Kilcoyne

Remaining in the EU would come at a big price for Britain | 27 November 2018

We’re familiar with the warnings about the cost of Brexit. The ‘People’s Vote’ campaign released an estimate yesterday suggesting that Theresa May’s deal will leave the UK £100bn worse off a year. Tomorrow, the Treasury will unveil its forecasts of the economic impact of Brexit. But what about the price of staying put in the EU? Whatever those clamouring for a ‘People’s Vote’ might claim, no Brexit does have a cost. Firstly, the price in terms of political capital will be significant. What does going back on the referendum result say to the 17.4million voters who voted Leave? What about the damage done to trust in our institutions and our politicians? Or to

Monday

Steve Bell

The trouble with drawing Jeremy Corbyn

‘What would happen if somebody ever came to power that you actually agreed with?’ It’s not a question that troubles most people, but spare a thought for the left-wing satirist who is used to lacerating Tory, Labour and coalition governments with equal ferocity. Yet while I am sometimes asked this question, any party – in government or in opposition ­– has been so far from representing my own views that it has always remained largely hypothetical. Until now. How on earth can I attack Jeremy Corbyn when I find myself agreeing with most of what he says? After all, political cartooning is an offensive, attacking medium. Or it is nothing. The prospect of

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Why Donald Trump thinks the Brexit deal is no good for US-UK trade

Donald Trump has always been consistent on Brexit. He admired the spirit of the vote, a freedom-loving people defying their elites, as his deplorables would go on to do. He likes Britain. He dislikes the EU, which he has always regarded as a sort of protection racket for German manufacturing and an institution that gets in the way of his golf course development. Ever since Trump’s inauguration, he has made it clear that America is ready to give Britain the ‘beautiful’ free trade deal that so excites Brexiteers. But he and his advisers have been consistently disappointed by May’s insistence that she must stick by E.U. terms and regulations at

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The mountain Theresa May has to climb to get her deal through

If Theresa May needed any reminder of what a mountain she has to climb to get her Brexit deal through, she got it in the House of Commons this afternoon. Any hope that getting the deal agreed with the EU 27 might give her momentum was dashed as MP after MP stood up to criticise the agreement. Not one MP supported it in the first hour of the session. In part, the wall of hostility came from the Speaker calling those known to be hostile to the deal. But what should most worry May was how critical Michael Fallon, the former defence secretary, was of her deal. If party loyalists,

Robert Peston Robert Peston

Why the Treasury’s Brexit forecasts will be almost irrelevant

The publication by the Treasury of its forecasts of the economic impact of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, versus no-deal and staying in the EU, has been keenly awaited. But it turns out that what we will read, probably on Wednesday, will be almost irrelevant. Because what the Treasury has modelled is not the deal actually struck on Sunday by Theresa May, but her Chequers plan. And, as you will be keenly aware, the rest of the EU has rejected her Chequers combination of the UK staying in the single market for goods and the dual-tariff customs territory the Facilitated Customs Arrangement. In other words, we will be asked by the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

How Jeremy Corbyn could cause yet another Labour split on Brexit

Jeremy Corbyn has been clear for a while that Labour will vote against Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the Commons. But it’s worth keeping an eye on the reaction in his party to the development of a second line in the Labour position, which is that the party has a better plan for Brexit. Today the Labour leader urged the Prime Minister to ‘prepare a Plan B’, telling the Commons that ‘there is a sensible deal that could win the support of this House based on a comprehensive customs union and strong single market deal that protects rights at work and environmental safeguards’. This is of course based on the

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Watch: Theresa May apologises for queue-jumping comment

When Theresa May stood up at the CBI conference earlier this month and declared that under the new Brexit immigration system, EU nationals would no longer be able to ‘jump the queue’, she met a hostile reaction. The rhetoric led to fellow leaders, MPs and voters going on the offensive over the comments. Today Theresa May took the opportunity to apologise for that comment. Asked in the Chamber by the SNP’s Philippa Whitford whether she wished to apologise for insulting EU nationals like Whitford’s husband, a German national and a doctor, who have contributed to society and made a home here, May said she should not have used that phrase: ‘I

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

My deal or chaos: May’s message to MPs as she faces the Commons

It only took a few lines of Theresa May’s statement to the House of Commons on her Brexit deal before MPs started making dissenting noises all around her. The Prime Minister started by listing the ways in which the deal ‘takes back control’ for the British people, telling MPs that this included control of Britain’s borders, ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, an end to ‘vast annual payments we send to Brussels’, protecting jobs through a new Free Trade Area, protecting the country’s security and maintaining ‘the integrity of our United Kingdom, meeting our commitments in Northern Ireland and delivering for the whole UK family, including our

Theresa May

Full text: Theresa May defends her Brexit deal in the Commons

At yesterday’s Special European Council in Brussels, I reached a deal with the leaders of the other 27 EU Member States on a Withdrawal Agreement that will ensure our smooth and orderly departure on 29th March next year; and, tied to this Agreement, a Political Declaration on an ambitious future partnership that is in our national interest. Mr Speaker, this is the right deal for Britain because it delivers on the democratic decision of the British people. It takes back control of our borders. It ends the free movement of people in full once and for all, allowing the government to introduce a new skills-based immigration system. It takes back

James Kirkup James Kirkup

A Brexit deal between Tories and Labour is just common sense

Despite – or perhaps because of – the fact that I’ve spent most of my adult life writing and talking about politics and politicians, there are still things about politics that I just cannot, on a fundamental level, understand. Top of the list is tribalism, the “my party right or wrong” stuff that reduces public policy to the level of football chants. (Yes, football is another thing I don’t get. Surprising, I know.) Apart from anything else, taking the view that the people and ideas of the other side are automatically bad is surely utterly self-defeating? Politics is about persuading the greatest number of people to agree and support you,

Theo Hobson Theo Hobson

Does Theresa May’s Anglicanism explain her muddled Brexit?

Ever since ‘Brexit’ was first breathed, there have been comparisons with Henry VIII’s break with Rome. At first such comparisons seemed a bit far-fetched, for there are some big differences between the Catholic Church and the EU, and between Protestantism and zeal for Brexit. But now they seem uncannily apt. For it looks as if we are embarking on an almighty compromise, a monster muddle middle-way that will be decades in the making. It was about thirty years after Henry’s break that his daughter Elizabeth started stabilising things. Let’s hope we’re a bit quicker to realise that we must lay aside our purism and channel the Tudor spirit of compromise.

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

If May forgets to talk to her MPs, her Brexit deal is doomed

Theresa May is back in the Commons this afternoon updating MPs on her Brexit deal. She’s in the middle of a frenzy of campaigning that makes her efforts during the referendum itself look quite lacklustre (admittedly not hard, given how little effort the then Home Secretary put into that campaign), with phone-ins, newspaper interviews and a bid for a live TV debate on Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn. Tomorrow, May is also going to tour the UK to sell her deal to the public. The Prime Minister’s strategy is to talk over the heads of her warring party and straight to the public, in the hope that at least some of

Katy Balls Katy Balls

What happens next? Five Brexit scenarios

Theresa May’s deal has been approved by the EU27 but now the difficult part begins. No.10 must work out a way to get the EU withdrawal agreement through the Commons. Given that the number of Tory MPs who have said they won’t support it is past the 80 mark (see the full list here), that looks no easy task. A vote is mooted for Tuesday 11th December. So, given that Plan A looks rather optimistic, what are the alternatives? No-one – not even those at No.10 – are entirely certain what would happen if the deal is voted down. However, here are the main scenarios to expect come the vote:

Robert Peston Robert Peston

Will Theresa May’s Brexit deal end up in the dustbin?

Because Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been so long in the coming – almost two and a half years – and has been so comprehensively trailed and leaked, yesterday’s formal ratification of the terms of our departure from the EU and the shape of our possible future relationship with the EU feels like the mother of all anti-climaxes. But cynicism and lethargy are to be resisted: that ratification really matters. Because because – at last we have THE DEAL. Until yesterday, everything about Brexit was presumption, speculation, rumour and hypothesis. Finally we know what Brexit means to a Prime Minister who had no other job but to find out what