Us politics

Saturday

Jonathan Jones

South Carolina could put Gingrich back in the hunt

When the week began, the idea of anyone but Mitt Romney claiming victory in tonight’s South Carolina primary seemed fanciful. He had a 10 point lead in the polls, giving him a 90 per cent chance of victory according to Nate Silver’s model. Any talk of someone else winning sounded like the wild hopes of a media keen for the nomination battle to go on as long as possible. But no longer. As I said on Thursday, it’s been a particularly bad week for Romney and a particularly good one for Newt Gingrich. Gingrich even managed to turn the one thing that seemed likely to halt his momentum – an

Friday

Jonathan Jones

Colbert for Cain

Herman Cain may have dropped out of the Presidential race weeks ago, but new ads are advocating a vote for him in South Carolina. These videos, including the one above, are being put out by the ‘Super PAC’ set up by satirist Stephen Colbert, the host of the Colbert Report famous for joking at George Bush’s expense at the 2006 White House Correspondents’ dinner. Super PACs — organisations which can raise unlimited sums from corporations and other groups as well as individuals, but are prohibited from coordinating with candidates or political parties — became a feature of the US political landscape in 2010, after a Supreme Court ruling made them

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

Newt’s good week might come to an early end

video platform video management video solutions video player It had been a pretty good week for Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign. He put in a strong performance in Monday night’s debate, he got a near-endorsement from Sarah Palin (she said ‘If I had a vote in South Carolina, in order to keep this thing going, I’d vote for Newt.’), a poll yesterday put him just 3 points behind Romney nationally, and one today shows him taking the lead in South Carolina. And he can expect to pick up a good number of Rick Perry’s few remaining supporters, with the Texas Governor dropping out today and endorsing Gingrich. Meanwhile, things haven’t been going

Monday

Jonathan Jones

No more Mr Nice Guy | 16 January 2012

So Jon Huntsman is dropping out of the US Presidential race today. Apparently a battle with Rick Perry for fifth in South Carolina didn’t appeal. Even though he looked like the best bet to beat Obama, Huntsman was never likely to win the Republican nomination. When many Republicans were desperately searching for a more conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, running as the more moderate alternative to Mitt Romney wasn’t going to be a winning strategy. This year of all years, you couldn’t see a man who had served in the Obama administration as Ambassador to China and who tweeted ‘I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

The Obama-Romney electoral map

Of course, Mitt Romney hasn’t secured the Republican nomination yet. But now that the bookies have him odds on at 1/9, it’s definitely worth thinking about how he’d shape up against Barack Obama. Does he have much of a chance? Well, yes, actually. The head-to-head polls so far point to a close fight between Obama and Romney. And Obama’s approval ratings and GDP growth forecasts — better predictors of the result at this stage — also point to a very tight election. It’s shaping up to be one of those elections where the key to victory is not the national popular vote, but the Electoral College. It’ll be winning each individual

Wednesday

Freddy Gray

The rise of the Ron Paul Movement

Everybody knew that Mitt Romney would win in New Hampshire. But the real success story of last night is Ron Paul, who came second, with 23.5 per cent of the vote. In 2008, he came fifth, with just eight per cent of the vote. Santorum, Gingrich and other ‘anti-Mitt’ candidates have risen and fallen, but Paul, who has refused to attack Romney directly in recent days, grows stronger and stronger. The Paul campaign, as Grace Wyler reports, has been playing a long game. They have been focusing their efforts on states, such as Iowa, in which they can win substantial numbers of delegates ahead of the Republican National Convention in

Jonathan Jones

Romney wins comfortably this time

Last night Mitt Romney became the first Republican, excluding sitting Presidents, to win both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary. And unlike in Iowa last week, his supporters didn’t have to wait until the next day to start celebrating. The exit polls were enough for Romney to be declared the winner within an hour of the voting booths closing. And now, with 95 per cent of the votes counted, he’s secured about 39 per cent of the vote – slightly higher than the share McCain received in 2008, and 16 points ahead of Ron Paul this time. Romney looks more the inevitable nominee than ever, and his victory

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

What to expect in New Hampshire

Tonight’s New Hampshire primary is very unlikely to provide the sort of razor-thin margin we saw in Iowa last week. Mitt Romney looks assured of a comfortable win – Nate Silver’s poll-based model (above) gives him a 98 per cent chance of victory. If one of the others did somehow beat him, it’d be the biggest upset of any modern US primary. The only real questions are just how comfortable it’ll be (20 points? 30? or just 10?), and who will come second. The polls suggest the battle for runner-up will be between Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Paul is the favourite to take it, but the momentum of the

Monday

Jonathan Jones

Romney hit from all sides on investment career

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_evS-T-c35M I noted on Saturday that one of the main attacks the Democrats are employing against Mitt Romney revolves around his 14 years as head of Bain Capital, a private equity investment firm which he co-founded. The argument is that Romney made a fortune as head of a company that was responsible for the closure of businesses and the laying off of thousands of American workers. Romney’s rebuttal is that this is how free enterprise works — in a debate on Saturday, he said: ‘in the free economy, in the private sector, sometimes investments don’t work and you’re not successful… in the business I had, we invested in over 100

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Obama enjoys the high life

Amidst all the talk of Tony Blair’s post-office earnings, it is interesting to read in The Times of Barack Obama’s post-presidency ambitions. In Jodi Kantor’s new book on the Obamas, the president is quoted telling old friends of the couple that: ‘When I leave office there are only two things I want. I want a plane and I want a valet.’ Now, I am sure Obama made the remark half in jest. But it does show how quickly politicians become accustomed to the conveniences of office. Though in Blair’s case, his money-making seems to be motivated more by a desire to match the lifestyle of the global elite that he

Saturday

Jonathan Jones

Democrats ready to face Romney

As James said yesterday, Mitt Romney is well on the way to becoming the Republican nominee. He is virtually certain to win New Hampshire on Tuesday – Nate Silver’s projections give him a 99 per cent chance of victory – and he’s odds on in South Carolina and Florida too, which would give him a clean sweep of the January primaries. It’s not the outcome Team Obama were hoping for – they’d have had a much easier ride against just about any of the other candidates (save perhaps Jon Huntsman) – but it is the one they were expecting. As a result, they’re ready for him, and Romney’s already been the focus

Friday

James Forsyth

Romney on course for the nomination

Mitt Romney’s status as the overwhelming favourite to be the Republican nominee for president is confirmed by a new poll out of South Carolina. It has Romney on 37 per cent, 18 points ahead of his nearest rival Rick Santorum. South Carolina is the next primary contest after New Hampshire, which takes place on Tuesday and which Romney is expected to win comfortably.   The significance of these new numbers is that South Carolina, the first primary in the south, has long been considered inhospitable territory for Romney. (In the 2008 primary there, he finished a disappointing fourth with 15 percent of the vote). If Romney is to be denied

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Iowa’s losers

Back in September, Rick Perry was the betting favourite to win both the Iowa caucus and the Republican nomination. Instead, he scored just 10 per cent of the vote last night, leaving him down in fifth place. This disappointing result may well be the final nail in the coffin of Perry’s campaign, and last night he certainly sounded like a candidate at the end of the line: ‘With the voters’ decision tonight in Iowa, I’ve decided to return to Texas, assess the results of tonight’s caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race… With a little prayer and a little reflection, I’m going to decide

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Romney’s faltering first step towards the nomination

Mitt Romney’s victory by eight votes in Iowa is hardly a ringing endorsement of his candidacy. But, I suspect, he will be the nominee. The real danger for Romney was a repeat of his 2008 failure in Iowa. He has avoided that. He now heads for New Hampshire where he has a massive poll lead. A commanding victory there will give him the big mo to get through South Carolina, an inhospitable state for him, and head into Florida, a banker for him, in a strong position. Rick Santorum, who broke from the back of pack at just the right moment and came so close to upsetting Romney, will now

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Romney by eight votes

Instead of white smoke, Iowa is belching thick fog. Mitt Romney has won by, erm, eight votes. At least so we think, the Republicans say that it has to wait until ‘Certified Form E’ will be returned by all the Iowa counties, which will take two weeks, so this gossamer majority may well vanish. Already some votes have been lost, others miscounted, so I doubt Romney will be doing much of a victory dance today. Iowa’s indecision is final. He has won by a majority of 0.0065 percentage points. It’s pretty good for the man who almost beat him, Rick Santorum, who won 30,007 votes to Romney’s 30,015. And Santorum

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Iowa’s dead heat

If you’ve just woken up, hoping to find out who won the Iowa caucus, then tough luck: they have lost the votes from two of the main counties, and Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are neck-in-neck on 25 per cent of the votes. Ron Paul has 21 per cent. As of 6am, there are reports that precincts have miscounted votes in a way that penalised Romney – but you don’t do recounts in a caucus. Some 122,106 votes have been counted and Romney and Santorum are just four votes apart. Even if Romney wins when the lost votes have been discovered, the closeness and farce of the lost/miscounted votes will

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Goading in the Gulf

The year has begun with Iran and the United States circling each other in the Straits of Hormuz; like two boxers before a bout, seeing who will strike first and working out where a blow could land. The immediate cause has been Iranian manoeuvres in the Arabian Gulf, and a visit to the area by the American aircraft carrier USS John C Stennis. Iran’s army chief has said that his country will take action if a US aircraft carrier returns to the Gulf. Oil prices have shot up as a result. This could be the worst time to goad a Democratic president facing pressure from those Republicans currently trying ‘out

Jonathan Jones

What to expect in Iowa

Tonight, caucus-goers in Iowa will deliver their verdict on this year’s Republican candidates for President. Above are Nate Silver’s latest poll-based projections of the result, showing three candidates with a decent chance of victory: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Santorum, who has surged in Iowa over the past week following endorsements from influential social conservatives Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley, could win tonight despite not having led a single poll. Which candidate prevails will depend largely on turnout. Like Obama four years ago, Paul’s hopes lie with those who would not usually vote in the Republican caucuses: Independents, Democrats and young people. But, also like Obama four

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tonight in Iowa

One of the things that makes the Iowa caucuses so different from most elections is that it is almost the opposite of a secret ballot. Four years ago I went to report on a caucus in suburban Des Moines. As soon as voters entered the school sports hall in which it was taking place, they had to go and stand in the corner of their candidate. There then followed a quite remarkable period where people tried to get their friends and neighbours to come over to their corner. Everyone was clocking who everyone else was voting for. This gives the caucuses a very different dynamic than other elections. Tonight in

Friday

Daniel Korski

Will Israel bomb a near-nuclear Iran in 2012?

An Israeli strike on Iran has to be the most over-predicted event of recent years. It was meant to happen last year. And the year before that. But now there are reasons why 2012 could, indeed, be the year when Israel will find it propitious to take overt military action against Iran’s nuclear programme. (Everyone assumes that a range of covert activities, from assassinations to cyber attacks, are already ongoing). The Iranian government is moving closer to having the requisite capabilities, and can reasonably be expected to take the final steps towards nuclearisation. What better way for Tehran to distract attention from their burgeoning problems — including sanctions, economic hardship,