Us politics

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

All aboard the Herman Cain train

Herman Cain – the former CEO of Godfather’s pizza – has gone from virtual unknown to frontrunner in a matter of months. In both of the national polls realeased this week, he leads Mitt Romney by four points. Gallup’s favourability ratings are a good way of tracking the popularity of the candidates. The chart below provides a pretty good illustration of the race so far. It shows Perry’s quick rise when he entered the race in August, and his even quicker fall following his first debates in September. You can also see Cain’s gradual rise after that strong debate performance in May, and his much steeper rise in the past month.

Jonathan Jones

The American Milibands

If you thought the Labour leadership election last year was tough on the Milbands’ mother, spare a thought for the Krumnow family of Elmore, Ohio. Brothers Lowell and James are engaged in what could be an even bigger electoral contest. They’re fighting not over the leadership of the Labour party, but instead to be mayor of a 1,500-strong town. And, as with the David-Ed battle, this campaign hasn’t taken a particularly fraternal course. 54-year-old Lowell — the incumbent mayor — has taken a swipe at his older brother’s record on the council: “He has probably missed more meetings in the two years he’s been a councilmember than I have missed

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Beyond Gaddafi, America turns its attention to Pakistan

It’s hard to recall a more grisly complement of newspaper covers than those this morning. Only the FT refrains from showing either Gaddafi’s stumbling last moments or his corpse, whereas the Sun runs with the headline, big and plain: “That’s for Lockerbie”. The insides of the papers are more uncertain. There are doubts about the details, such as what has happened to Gaddafi’s infamous son Saif. And there are doubts about the general tide of events too. Several commentators, including Peter Oborne, make the point that the passing of Gaddafi is only the first phase in Libya’s struggle towards democracy — and it is a struggle that might easily be

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Republicans go all in in Vegas

Up till now the debates between the Republican presidential candidates have not thrown up much excitement. That changed last night as the main contenders stopped playing nice and started going after each other. The most notable exchange came when Rick Perry accused Mitt Romney of hiring illegal immigrants. This caused Romney to lose his usual above-it-all cool: This exchange will not have done Romney any favours, but he compensated with other strong moments and so retains the “favourite” label. What has changed, though, is the tone of the primaries: it’s going to be a more aggressive campaign as we close in on the first primaries.

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Cain takes centre stage

Last night may well have been the moment Rick Perry’s hopes of winning the Republican nomination finally ended. Having already seen his polling surge rapidly reverse – largely because of poor performances in the last two debates – he put in another poor performance as the candidates clashed in New Hampshire. Worse, he followed up the debate with an American history gaffe, saying: “actually the reason that we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown if you will”. As a result, he was subjected to merciless Twitter mockery, via the hashtag #perryhistory. It’s taken him a month to go from

Daniel Korski

Saudi and Iran at each others’ throats

Yesterday — as Pete pointed out earlier — the Obama administration filed criminal charges against two individuals, Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, claiming that they worked with Mexican criminals and for the Iranian government on orders to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. The plot has met with denials from Tehran, which “categorically and in the strongest terms condemn this shameful allegation.”     But, if true, the plot would only be the latest in a long-standing feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The struggle between Riyadh and Tehran has become the Middle East’s central conflict, overshadowing even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The countries are divided by a Shiite-Sunni

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

Palin and Rubio say no to 2012 bids

It’s been quite a week for Republicans deciding they’re not interested in entering the White House in 2013. First, Christie closed the door on a presidential bid on Tuesday. Last night, Sarah Palin followed suit, saying: “After much prayer and serious consideration, I have decided that I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for President of the United States… My decision is based upon a review of what common sense Conservatives and Independents have accomplished, especially over the last year. I believe that at this time I can be more effective in a decisive role to help elect other true public servants to office – from the nation’s

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

Christie staying out of 2012 race

The broad narrative of the Republican primaries has essentially been “the search for an alternative to Mitt Romney”. And that search looks set to continue with another potential candidate, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, set against running for president. Romney has been the favourite to win the nomination pretty much since the 2008 election. But he does not generate much enthusiasm among the Republican base: only 14 per cent of Republicans have a “strongly favourable” view of him (according to Gallup) and he’s polling at just 24 per cent: pretty low for such a well-known frontrunner. As a result, many in the Grand Old Party have been looking elsewhere. This has

Friday

Jonathan Jones

Romney’s Churchill fixation backfires

A couple of weeks ago Mitt Romney used Winston Churchill – or his bust, at least – to attack Obama. This week, he used the former Prime Minister to defend his flip-flopping. Or at least, he thought he did. Here’s what he told a town hall in New Hampshire on Wednesday: ‘In the private sector, if you don’t change your view when the facts change, well you’ll get fired for being stubborn and stupid. Winston Chuchill said, “When the facts change, I change too, Madam”.’ Unfortunately, as NBC have pointed out, the line wasn’t Churchill’s at all. It is usually attributed to John Maynard Keynes, but even that may be aprocryphal. So

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

Perry slumps, Cain surges

Just over six weeks into his Presidential campaign, the sheen is coming off Rick Perry. Having entered the race as the favourite, he quickly established a double-digit lead over the rest of the Republican field. But now, especially after the candidates’ latest debate last week, the momentum has shifted. Here, to illustrate Perry’s fall, is yesterday’s Fox News poll, compared to their previous one, conducted a month ago: As you can see, the drop in support for Perry has not led to much of an increase for his main rival, Mitt Romney. Instead, the biggest beneficiary has been Herman Cain, who has leapt from 6 per cent a month ago

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Yesterday’s big speech

I suspect that the most important political speech delivered yesterday was not Ed Miliband’s address to Labour conference, but Chris Christie’s one at the Reagan Library in California. The governor of New Jersey is coming under mounting pressure from the Republican establishment to run for president; they view him as the party’s best chance of capitalising on President Obama’s electoral vulnerability. This speech was striking for its political dexterity. It is not a base-pleasing red-meat speech, but rather one designed to reach out to those who voted for Obama last time; those who grown disillusioned by how he has governed. Perhaps, the most effective part of it came when he

Friday

James Forsyth

Preparing for the US Presidential election

One thing British politics has yet to rise up to is how possible it is that Barack Obama might lose next year. All the pollsters have his approval rating in negative territory, Gallup has him down by ten, and the American economy looks likely to deteriorate between now and November 2012. But the big thing in Obama’s favour is the weakness of the Republican field. Bill Kristol’s cry of pain about the quality on show in last night’s primary debate sums up Republican establishment worries that none of the candidates cut it. We can now expect another push to get a new candidate into the race. Chris Christie, the governor

Thursday

Daniel Korski

The new Israel and Palestine question

The halls of the UN are packed with presidents and foreign ministers. But for all the thousands of subjects under discussion, this year’s General Assembly will be remembered for one issue only: the Palestinian statehood application. Mahmoud Abbas has made clear he wants to proceed, despite the reality of a US veto. In the end, it may not come down a showdown. If an application is made to the UN Security Council, the issue will likely go to a sub-committee of the full UNSC and take quite some time before it comes to a vote, whatever the Palestinians may want. That is why the US prefers the option to a

Friday

Daniel Korski

The Israel Palestine question

After a hiatus, the Middle East Peace Process is about to return to the international stage. The Palestinians are pushing at the UN for recognition. Nobody knows yet what they will actually ask for: full statehood or just upgrading their UN status to “non-member”. But, whatever the language of the resolution, the issue will be contentious. By some estimates, 126 states are poised to back the Palestinian request, including France, India, Brazil, Spain. The US will not support a Palestinian move, nor is Germany likely to. Britain remains undecided, hoping to help the Palestinians draft a resolution that other Europeans can sign up to. It’s not clear what Britain and

Tuesday

Freddy Gray

Authenticity or bust?

Mitt Romney won the Atlanticist vote last night by saying he’d bring back a bust of Winston Churchill to the Oval Office. That’s a reference, obviously, to Barack Obama’s decision, soon after moving into the White House, to have the bronze removed. That decision caused a lot of bother. When the story broke, the Obama machine insisted that the bust’s removal was part of a routine changeover between presidents. But British hacks shouted ‘Anglophobia’ and pronounced the Special Relationship dead. The British embassy in Washington received masses of letters from Americans apologising for this great slight against Britannia. Never in the field of human history has so much been made

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Obama’s plan B: tax cuts

Washington, DC The clue is in the name. A stimulus is supposed to stimulate, and Obama’s first attempt stimulated nothing more than the American national debt. So he’s trying again, with a $447 billion package (he’s careful not to call it a “stimulus”) in what will probably be his last roll of the pre-election dice. But $245 billion of it would be debt-financed tax cuts.  Not sales tax cuts, the type of which Ed Balls is prescribing for Britain. It’s all payroll tax cuts: reducing the tax on jobs in the hope of encouraging more hiring. Given the temporary nature of the tax cuts, I doubt this will be the

Jonathan Jones

Rubio for VP?

Just under a year from now, Republicans will meet in Tampa, Florida for their National Convention, at which their candidate to take on President Obama will be nominated. So too will that candidate’s running mate: the man or woman hoping to oust Joe Biden and become the 48th Vice President of the United States. The choice of VP candidate will be one of the biggest decisions facing whichever of the Presidential hopefuls emerges victorious in the primaries. Right now, the clear favourite to be selected is Marco Rubio. The betting markets give him around a one-in-three chance of being chosen, making him at least four times as likely as anyone

Thursday

Freddy Gray

Obama’s field of dreams?

The striking thing about last night’s Republican Party debate was just how bad the leading GOP candidates are. Rick Perry, the new favourite, isn’t terribly bright. (“Perry is like Will Ferrell doing Bush, but on half-speed,” is how David Frum, a former Bush speechwriter, put it.) Mitt Romney is an oily cheese merchant who keeps contradicting himself. And Bachmann is bonkers. With the USA in such a poor state, you might think President Obama would be in danger of losing the White House. But the Republican party is incapable of offering a coherent and sensible alternative. The most interesting candidates are Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul, but they don’t seem

Daniel Korski

Newsflash: Americans and Europeans like each other

A decade has passed since the attacks of 9/11 and so much water has flown under the proverbial bridge. Today, ordinary Americans don’t want to have a leadership role in the world, and Europeans aren’t too keen on it either. And having dithered over what to do about Guantanamo Bay, most people in the US and Europe don’t trust President Obama’s counter-terrorist policies. Right? No, actually wrong. According to the tenth-annual public opinion survey of the general public in the United States, Turkey, and 12 European Union member states – the Transatlantic Trends – 54 per cent of respondents from European countries surveyed want the United States to show strong leadership in world

Friday

Freddy Gray

Gripped by ‘Dominion’

What on earth is ‘Dominionism’? Lots of Americans who first heard the word just a few weeks ago are suddenly feeling very angry about it. Liberals say that the US constitution is facing a ‘Dominionist threat’ in the form of Michele Bachman and Rick Perry, two Republicans running for president in 2012. Christian conservatives, meanwhile, cry prejudice: they accuse a secularist elite of conducting a witch-hunt against Christians in politics.   What’s the fuss? Dominionism is, we are told, a school of evangelical thought that aims to impose Biblical law over secular government. It is to nutty Evangelicals what Shariah Law is to Islamists,­ a way of achieving theocracy on earth.