Hamish McRae is an economics commentator, and a columnist for the i newspaper.
We’ve learnt three things about the future of world trade from the temporary reprieve over tariffs that the US has given China – and China’s response to it. One is the markets are now confident that both countries will be sensible. The massively negative reaction they gave to ‘liberation day’ on 2 April signalled their
It’s that moment of supreme uncertainty. We do however know the question. Is this a regular sell-off, with the S&P500 nudging into bear market territory, but then steadying in the next few months before a gradual recovery? Or is this a true crash, akin to those of October 1929, October 1987, October 2008, or most
The plunge continues. It’s always a mug’s game trying to call the top of any market, but the plunge on Wall Street does feel as though it has got legs, so it is quite possible that we have indeed seen the peak for US equities. Since last week the Nasdaq has moved into correction territory
China does not like tariffs, but big money in America likes them even less. If one thing has become clear amid the fog of the past week, it is that what will contain Donald Trump are the financial markets. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, attacked Trump on Friday for his imposition of tariffs, adding that
Do we have to choose between prioritising European or American trade? Let’s hope we don’t, because we need both. But the question has sharpened this week for two reasons. The less important one is that Maros Sefcovic, the EU’s new trade commissioner, has suggested that the UK might join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention, a group of 23 countries with
The UK economy may end up growing a bit faster by the end of this decade than the Office for Budget Responsibility expects – but if it does that will be no thanks to Rachel Reeves’s Budget. The OBR’s projections are unambitious. This is their summary: ‘Having stagnated last year, the economy is expected to grow by
Who would pay for Rachel Reeves’s increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions? Well yes, in the first instance it is the companies that would have to hand over the cash, but the real burden would be much more widely shared. To see why, start with the simple question: what does a company do if it
