Jack Smith is an analyst at Eurointelligence.
The EU’s import embargo of Russian oil – which comes into force today – plus a price cap on non-EU seaborne exports is intended to hit Russia without damaging the West. It sounds too good to be true, and it probably is. First, there’s the price cap level itself. Originally, the EU had wanted to
The UK government has had a fractious couple of weeks. First it was the Swiss EU deal rumours, then housing, then a panicked response to high immigration figures. The latest problem to crop up is a rebellion over onshore wind, which has effectively been banned in the UK since 2012. What each of these disparate
Mario Draghi’s national unity government lost badly in yesterday’s Italian election – worse even than the polls predicted. Fratelli d’Italia, the main opposition party, was the big winner. Five Star, which pulled the plug on Draghi’s government, also gained. What we did not see is a big shift between left and right. The right coalition
One implication of the Russian gas shut-off is that Norway has now become the EU’s largest single supplier of natural gas. According to the country’s energy ministry, they are expected to export 122 billion cubic metres of gas south to the EU over the course of 2022. This compares with the 155 billion cubic metres
What is the Kremlin’s gas war endgame? Based on the various statements from Gazprom, the foreign ministry, and Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, it’d be reasonable to conclude that it is getting western sanctions lifted. The message coming through is that the so-called technical issues that Nord Stream 1 is suffering from would be fixable,
After months of speculation and handwringing, it has finally happened: Germany and the rest of Europe are now receiving no natural gas through Nord Stream 1. Aside from how the continent manages to survive this winter, Russia’s moves to shut off supply through its pipeline will have serious long-term ramifications. One of the most significant
Now it’s official: if the right-wing coalition wins Italy’s election, Giorgia Meloni will almost definitely be prime minister. Earlier this week, the three leaders of the coalition, herself, Matteo Salvini, and Silvio Berlusconi, agreed to formalise the principle that whoever’s party won the most votes would get to choose who ascends to the premiership. Meloni’s
Europe’s gas situation has now gone from bad to worse. Gazprom will cut volumes through Nord Stream 1 in half, from 40 per cent of capacity to about 20 per cent from tomorrow onwards, pushing Germany into further danger ahead of winter. The German government will probably have to move into the highest level of
Is it all over for Mario Draghi’s recovery government? His attempted resignation yesterday – which was rejected by President Sergio Mattarella – opens up a highly uncertain chapter in the most serious crisis the Italian Prime Minister has faced. There’s little desire from anyone to see Draghi leave and usher in new elections, at least
