So Nick Clegg has finally spoken – and his words will be welcomed by the Tories. In an address outside of the Lib Dem HQ on Cowley St, he reiterated his previous argument that “whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, without gaining a majority, has the first right to form a
Labour’s victory in Erith and Thamesmead has just made a hung parliament mathematically certain. So there you go.
Peter Mandelson has just tossed a firecracker in to the arena. Asked on the Beeb whether Labour might get rid of Brown to accommodate the Lib Dems, he replied: “There will be a number of permutations … I’m not ruling anything in, or anything out.” So, in other words: yes.
Let’s rewind to 10pm yesterday evening, when the exit poll was released. Most politicos – myself included – were incredulous. We could just about believe that there might be a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but a reduced number of Lib Dem seats? After Cleggmania and all those recent opinion polls?
0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in second. 0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg. 0638, PH: Clegg says “this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems
Just under two hours to go until polls close, and Tory types around Westminster seem fairly confident that they can snatch a majority. Their argument remains the same: that a combination of their party’s concentrated firepower in the marginals and their motivated voting base will swing it for them. And their demeanour is slightly more
David and Samantha Cameron leaving the polling station in Spelsbury Gordon and Sarah Brown arrive to vote in North Queensferry Nick and Miriam Clegg vote in Sheffield
Now’s the time, dear CoffeeHouser. After nearly three years in Number Ten, Gordon Brown is finally subjecting himself to the wishes of the British public. And, signs are, he won’t like what they’ve got to say. Putting the strong possibility of a hung parliament aside, last night’s opinion polls had Labour on or around Michael
Is this it? A couple more polls have been released, and – like all the others tonight – they point towards a hung parliament. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tories on 36 percent (up three points), Labour on 28 percent (no change), and the Lib Dems on 26 (down 2). And a
You want more numbers? Well, the YouGov figures for the Sun have just come in, and they are: the Tories on 35 percent (no change), Labour on 28 percent (down two), and the Lib Dems on 28 percent (up 4). So far tonight, all the polls have been in hung parliament territory (on an uniform
So the Times/Populus results are in, and they have the Tories on 37 percent (up one), Labour on 28 percent (up one), and the Lib Dems on 27 percent (down one). On a uniform national swing, this would leave us in hung parliament territory. But Tories I speak to are pretty confident that numbers like
Make no mistake: tomorrow’s election is just so many beginnings. The beginning of a fiscal footslog for the next government. The beginning of the Lib Dems’ struggle to maintain attention and support. The beginning, perhaps, of backroom negotiations to determine who gets to govern our country. But, of all these beginnings, there’s one which threatens
…and it’s from the Daily Express/Opinium. They have the Tories on 35 percent (up 2), Labour on 27 percent (up 1) and the Lib Dems on 26 percent (down 1). So, an 8 point lead for the Tories. I know plenty of CoffeeHousers have had their fill of opinion polls. But, obviously, the shifts and
Silver medal in the Graph of the Day contest (we’ll have the gold medallist up on Coffee House later) goes to this effort from YouGov. It’s just been published, with details, over at PoliticsHome, and tracks public “buzz” about the three party leaders during the course of the campaign. I’m not sure how much to
Alas, and most reluctantly, you’ve got to hand it to Brown: he’s a scrapper. Just watching coverage of his speech in Bradford now, and he seems to be on punchy form. The message is stridently negative, of course. And he has entrenched himself, as David noted earlier, back behind the old “investment vs cuts” line
Here’s a minor turn-up for the political anoraks’ scrapbooks: donations to Labour outstripped those going to the Tory party in the third week of the campaign. Brown & Co. were handed £1,416,863 against the Tories’ £645,250. Which is no sign of an effective campaign – after all, almost all of Labour’s publicity has been heavily
Here’s the Tory film which I previewed in my last post:
“Where’s the popcorn?” I thought, as I joined a bunch of journos to watch the Tories’ final broadcast of the election campaign. It was a good nine minutes long, and might as well have been titled The Downfall of New Labour. The opening shots were of Blair and Brown in 97: “a new dawn,” and
George Osborne sounds a more confident note than most of his Tory bandmates in interview with the Standard today. On top of the obligatory Ready for Government noises, he rattles off a list of London marginals which are winnable for the Tories, and adds that an overall majority is “within our grasp”. Pretty direct stuff
There’s only one question which matters when it comes to Labour’s tactical voting plea: will it work? You can certainly see Brown & Co’s thinking on this. This is the election, after all, where the Lib Dems have become a viable option for a lot more people – so they might act as a speed