MPs and ministers who had settled down in Parliament on Tuesday evening for a late night of votes on the finance bill were given an early reprieve – all votes were off. However, rather than an early Christmas present from No.10, the shelving of votes on the finance bill was down to a reason out of Theresa May’s control: no working majority.
With the DUP abstaining for a second day over grievances with the EU withdrawal text, the government decided to concede all amendments to the bill – including one from the SNP. It’s not clear they would have lost on every single amendment but after the antics of Monday (when the DUP voted with Labour but not enough Labour MPs turned up to secure victory), all opposition MPs were on standby to try and inflict a defeat on the government. Rather than bring about embarrassing scenes, the Tories quietly conceded.
Labour politicians – and Tory MPs privately – have been quick to say this means we have a zombie government. They may seem like they’re in government but they are not able to govern. Given that the DUP have said they are on strike until the backstop issue is fixed and May has said she has no plans to change the agreement, the Tories are effectively operating as a minority government for the timebeing.
What could break the impasse? Just as Tory Brexiteers have been cheered by talk of technological solutions to fix the border problem, the DUP have hinted that this is something they would consider. The problem is No.10 can talk technology up as much as they like, what matters is what the UK has legally agreed to do if these solutions fail to materialise and there is little talk of technology replacing the overall backstop agreement.
If the DUP decide that they cannot support this government in the long term, an early election starts to look more likely. One scenario for an early election is that May manages to get a deal through Parliament, but in the process permanently loses the support of the DUP over the Irish backstop. At that point, with no working majority, May could have little choice but to go to the polls.
There are some who are sceptical the DUP would really go this far. Regardless, at the moment No.10’s priority is to get through the day, then the week and perhaps even the whole month. If they can get the Brexit deal through Parliament, it will be regarded as a triumph by May’s team. If they do manage to do that, however, they then need to get through a lot of crucial Brexit-related legislation. Ask someone in government how they intend to do this with no working majority and no-one seems quite sure. ‘Hope the DUP come back on side after,’ muses a government optimist. It’s not the most watertight plan but right now it’s one hurdle at a time.
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