When MPs and peers were recalled to parliament for an emergency debate on renationalising British Steel, one man was the talk of the terrace: Nigel Farage. Out by the river, a Labour peer congratulated the Reform leader for ‘leading on everything’. After all, Farage had been in Scunthorpe days earlier calling for steel nationalisation.
Since I started covering British politics for The Spectator ten years and six prime ministers ago, there have been plenty of times when an insurgent party appeared to be on the rise. In 2015, the ascent of Ukip contributed to David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum on EU membership. Then in 2019, the success of the Brexit party in the European elections spurred many Tories into backing Boris Johnson for leader. On the left, there was Change UK, the breakaway Labour group during the Corbyn years, which at its height polled as the third biggest party in Westminster before it quickly fizzled out. Whatever the success of these parties, none broke through in a general election.
As I write this column for the final time, the direction of British politics for the next ten years depends on whether Reform can finally buck that trend. ‘Ukip was a forerunner for what is actually happening which is despite the first-past-the-post system, the old two-party system is breaking down,’ Farage tells me. ‘The split on the left is huge.’
The local elections next month will be the first chance since Labour’s landslide victory last year to assess how serious the fracturing is. Both Labour and the Tories are braced for a miserable night.
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