The Tories want to make their closing argument in this campaign about Brexit and how Labour would raise taxes, I write in The Sun this morning. I understand that Lynton Crosby held a meeting with senior Cabinet Ministers on Tuesday which set out this strategy. I’m told that the meeting made clear that Crosby is now in charge and that this will be the party’s closing message.
It is, though, a sign of how narrowly run this campaign has been that several of those present say that this was the most they have been consulted on—or informed—about the party’s strategy in this election. Interestingly, Philip Hammond wasn’t at this meeting. His absence doesn’t bode well for him post-election.
Senior Tories are still confident that they’ll win this election; I haven’t spoken to a single Cabinet Minister who doesn’t think the Tories will be back in government this week. But, as one of them says, ‘it’s not been the cakewalk everyone expected’.
Most ministers I’ve spoken to are predicting a majority of between 40 and 80. London seems to be the only places where the Tories think they might lose seats, with a particularly significant number of gains expected in the West Midlands and the North East.
If the Tory majority doesn’t reach 80, Tory MPs will be disappointed. But regardless of where the majority ends up, May would be well advised to tread cautiously when reshuffling her Cabinet.
There are supporters of hers who are gunning for Boris Johnson. But she will need his help to sell the Brexit deal, which will inevitably involve compromises, to those who voted Leave in the referendum. One Boris ally tells me ‘they will regret it’ if they get rid of him and that he wouldn’t take being sacked ‘lying down’. May shouldn’t want to create a powerful, Eurosceptic enemy at this point in her premiership.
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