Corbyn is closing in on May, the Times reports this morning, as a poll from YouGov shows the gap between the two parties is down to just five points with less than two weeks to go until election day. The latest numbers show the Conservatives have, once again, seen their support drop: this time by one point, down to 43 per cent. Labour meanwhile have enjoyed a three point bump, up to 38 per cent. If this were replicated come June 8th, it would be bad news for Theresa May: she would be a Prime Minister under pressure, with her party’s majority slimmed down to just two. Talk of a Tory landslide would be a distant memory and May would be forced to defend her decision to call a snap election.
What’s worrying for the Tories is that this declining support isn’t a one off and appears to form part of a pattern. Last weekend, the party saw its support cut by five points in another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. The latest slide – and Labour’s rise – seems to suggest that the government is under pressure. But it’s not all bad news for the PM.
YouGov point out that since Monday night’s terror attack, Theresa May has seen her net favourability rise. It’s likely that this is as a result of her decisive response to events this week. On the question of who ‘do you trust to make the right decision about keeping Britain safe from terrorism?’, the answer is never in doubt: 55 per cent say Theresa May; only a third say Jeremy Corbyn. When asked who would make the best Prime Minister, nearly half say Theresa May – compared with 28 per cent who back the Labour leader. It’s clear that May – not Corbyn – remains the preferred choice among voters. Meanwhile, on the question of keeping Britain safe, it’s unlikely that Corbyn’s speech this morning – in which he will link Britain’s foreign policy to the terror threat – will help matters. A raft of bad headlines in the Saturday newspapers for the Labour leader looks all too inevitable; it’ll also be a tough sell on the doorstep for beleaguered Labour moderates.
For now though, it is safe to say that the heady heights of a 22-point lead in the polls (which the Tories reached on May 8th) is a thing of the past. Yet what this poll does show is that Tory complacency would be a mistake – and that can only be a helpful thing for Theresa May. The Prime Minister has been talking up the threat posed by Corbyn’s ‘coalition of chaos’. And as Katy Balls pointed out on Coffee House last weekend, it’ll only make the PM’s point more forceful and believable if polls like this suggest there is a chance – even a distant one – of Corbyn making it to Number 10.
One final point: YouGov’s Anthony Wells suggests that the ‘more plausible explanation’ for the latest drop in support for the Tories is the social care row. Given that May became one of the first party leaders ever to U-turn on a manifesto pledge before an election, it’s little surprise that she is being punished in the polls. Yet the speed with which the PM corrected this unpopular policy by insisting that a cap on social care costs would, after all, be included in Tory plans could have been enough to win back voters. The Tories should have learned their lesson from this row and the backlash will have focused minds in Number 10. If May is lucky, voters will forgive and forget her social care blunder and come to the conclusion that while the PM might not be as ‘strong and stable’ as she insists, she is a better bet than her opposite number.
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