What did we learn from the Witney by-election?

It’s no surprise that the Tories held their seat overnight in the Witney by-election. Yet what seems remarkable (at least on the face of it) is the extent of the swing back towards the Lib Dems. The party saw its share of the vote jump from seven per cent two years ago to nearly a third of the vote this time around. That pushed the party’s candidate, Liz Leffman, into second place and has got Tim Farron excited. The Lib Dem leader went as far as saying the result shows the ‘Liberal Democrats are back in the political big time’. That’s not quite the case yet. After all, this is a party which started the night with eight MPs and wakes up this morning with the same number. But while the Lib Dems looked dead and buried two years ago, there is now, at least, the sign of life. So what does Witney tell us about the prospect of a yellow revival?

It’s certainly the case that the Lib Dems benefited from a dip in Tory support: in 2015, Witney was the 12th safest Conservative seat in the country and David Cameron was re-elected with a majority of over 25,000.