Ukip is gathering for its autumn conference in Doncaster, with Nigel Farage delivering the keynote speech later today. Unlike last year’s shindig, which saw the defection of Mark Reckless from the Tories, this year’s conference is likely to be less eventful — for one thing, the party has failed to grow its presence in Westminster. Even its members appear to be demotivated — the Telegraph reports that attendance is ‘significantly low’ and has offered cut-price tickets to entice Kippers to come along. A party spokesman acknowledged:
‘Last year conference was straight after a big election victory for Ukip so it’s not wildly surprising that numbers are down’
Now that an In-Out referendum is on the horizon and the main parties are leading the way, Ukip faces a simple question: why should anyone listen to it? It’s hard not to see them as a throw back to the pre-general election days, when Jeremy Corbyn was still an obscure backbencher. Despite the lack of media attention, Ukip is steady in the polls — on 16 per cent of the vote share according to the latest YouGov tracker. The Lib Dems meanwhile are languishing on just six per cent.
Farage has vowed not to lead the official Leave campaign — instead he is undertaking his own tour of Britain to whip up support for a Brexit. One of the questions Ukip has to answer at this conference is how it can gell with the wider Eurosceptic movement. If it ends up doing its own thing, Ukip’s role could be limited to talking purely to its own supporters, which is not enough to win the referendum.
Plus once the vote is over, Ukip will have to transform into something new, or fade away. If Britain votes to remain in the EU, Ukip can continue to campaign for a Brexit and another referendum. But if the public votes to leave, there will no longer be a purpose to the party. Some in Ukip hope it can be remodelled as a small-state, anti-globalisation movement that can appeal to disaffected blue collar workers. But judging by the agenda for the Doncaster conference, the party is only thinking about the near future.
For contrast, Tim Farron managed to deliver an impressive conference speech by outlining a new direction for the Lib Dems to head in, while emphasising the importance of remaining in the EU. With Labour apparently vacating the centre ground, Farron argued that his party can fill the gap and offered an olive branch to Labour MPs who are feeling out of step with the new order. But Ukip has yet to define where it fits in the New Politics and it looks unlikely this conference will answer that question.
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