This afternoon something rare will happen in this election campaign. David Cameron will campaign in London. While bus-ing and jetting all around the four countries that make up the United Kingdom, the capital has all but been forgotten by the Prime Minister during the short campaign.
Like so many aspects of this general election campaign, Wednesday’s event will be closed to journalists. So what’s going on?
Tory worries in the capital are growing. Polls have Labour out ahead by double digits, and many of Miliband’s expected gains will likely come from greater-London marginals.
Mr S is repeatedly hearing complaints from Tory activists that the data they have in London is massively skewed by ‘the Boris factor’. Pledge data is artificiality high, as it was collected during the 2008 and 2012 Mayoral elections, where voters who are not natural Tories promised, when canvassed, to vote for Boris and they were incorrectly recorded as Tory supporting households. The implications of this is dawning on the party very late in the game.
While London Conservative insiders are hopeful that they can take Kingston from Ed Davey, there is a growing acceptance that health minister Jane Ellison is ‘a goner’ in Battersea. There is also further concern for Mary Macleod in Brentford and Isleworth and Angie Bray in Ealing Central. Bookies Sporting Index predict that Labour will gain six seats in the capital – including that of loyalist Gavin Barwell in Croydon Central.
Surely keeping the Prime Minister and media scrum away is not a deliberate tactic?
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