Political theatre, that’s what Barack Obama delivered in Afghanistan last night. A year on from the death of Osama Bin Laden, and with the US elections fast approaching, here was the President reheating his existing timetable for withdrawal — and offering it up as reassurance for weary Afghans and Americans alike. There were some new details, courtesy of an ‘Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement’ signed with Hamid Karzai, but this was mostly about the symbolism and rhetoric. As Obama put it himself, ‘We can see the light of a new day on the horizon.’
Except this ‘new day’ quickly slipped back into night. A couple of hours after Obama had left the country, a suicide bomb attack left at least seven people dead in Kabul. The Taliban have since claimed responsibility, making this a continuation of their recent ‘spring offensive’ and another reminder of their continuing, murderous presence in Afghanistan, ten years on from the start of operations.
How to deal with the Taliban is, I expect, the question that will dominate much of the political debate from here on out. A few months ago, the plan to set up a ‘peace mission’ in Doha was being implemented more or less smoothly. But that was before the bomb attacks started again wholesale — and the process subsequently stalled. There are some now who will wish the talks to continue, to help prevent further bloodshed in future. Yet there are others who will see the Taliban as an enemy who cannot be reasoned with, but only confronted and destroyed.
Which position Obama veers towards will determine much. The President may be committed to withdrawal, but there are still question marks over how much support the Americans will lend to the Afghan state after 2014. At the moment, there’s talk of about 20,000 troops remaining after the ‘combat mission’ ends, to help train the local army, along with some special forces to prosecute counter-terrorism missions. But the actual numbers haven’t yet been decided. They could change depending on the frequency and violence of Taliban activity.
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