At the risk of careering round an old argument, Jonathan, the graphs you’ve produced on political affiliations are yet another reminder, if ever one were needed (and it is) that the Tory right’s argument that Cameron would have won a majority if only he’d run a blue-meat campaign is dreadfully mistaken. As you can see, more voters identify with the left than the right. This was Tony Blair’s legacy and the ground upon which Cameron was compelled to fight.
I suppose it is possible that Cameron could move right without alienating voters who consider themselves – accurately or not – centrists but I suggest this is not probable.
As for Nick Clegg: well, he was right to argue that left-wing, anti-Iraq votes were basically borrowed votes and no kind of sustainable future for the Liberal Democrats. His problem is the Lib Dem collapse in the centre and it’s there, I hazard, that the tuition fee blunder has hurt the Lib Dems most. Nice people in the nice and comfy centre don’t like the idea of politicians they once considered nice chaps behaving in quite such a brazen fashion. Politics, of course, ain’t nice but the nice people don’t care to be reminded of that.
Theoretically this should be good news for Ed Miliband. Unfortunately for Labour, their leader remains Ed Miliband and despite these being treacherous times for incumbents I’m not sure he has the chops to defeat Cameron in the battle for moderate voters.
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