So here we go again. The Six Nations is back and just as unpredictable as ever. Happy times and so much better than the dark days when some – mainly English journalists admittedly – argued England should always play France on the last weekend of the championship since, invariably, that would be the game that would decide the tournament.
This year’s championship is ripe with uncertainty. The fixture list does not favour France who must visit Twickenham and Lansdowne Road (I refuse to call it the “Aviva Stadium”) but England themselves, though showing signs of improvement, have won just four of their last 16 away fixtures and haven’t picked up the title since winning the World Cup in 2003. This must be frustrating for England supporters, but it has been good for this annual festival.
Tonight’s opening fixture between Wales and England is, for the rest of us, rather like the Iran-Iraq War. It’s a shame they can’t both lose. The Welsh, though rarely gracious in defeat, are even worse in victory and for that reason, and because Warren Gatland annoys me, I’ll be happy for England to prevail this evening. The English forwards should be good enough to do it, too, though Wales have a clear advantage in midfield where the English centre partnership of Hape and Tindall looks pedestrian.
The great thing about the championship, besides it being the world’s most friendly international sporting competition, is its sense of terroir. Even in this standardised age each country retains its own style. France still offer a frightening mixture of piano-shifters and piano-players; at their best Wales can still play with a mesmerising fluency. Scotland, under Andy Robinson, have developed a hard, tough pack and a reiving back row that honours the memory of the great breakway trios from the past. Ireland meanwhile, though long in the tooth, can rely on the genius of Brian O’Driscoll, perhaps the most complete British or Irish back since Mike Gibson.
As for England? Well, they too remain a work in progress: their performance against Australia in the autumn was thrilling because it was so un-English. It was exhuberant, yes, but exhuberant without the arrogance that, frankly, characterised the great English side of the Carling-Guscott era. Every so often England produce glimpses of what they can achieve but one never knows if they really quite trust themselves to play like that all the time. Caution and prudence so often prevail that one’s tempted to think this must somehow reflect the solid, stolid nature of the English midlands. A little bit of flash is all very well and good but you can have too much of a good thing.
Rather alarmingly, some people have been saying nice things about Scotland’s prospects. After a miserable decade this is good, but Scotland won’t win the title this year. Trips to Paris (two wins in 40 years) and London (just four wins since Twickenham opened a century ago) will see to that. Plus, we can’t score tries. Nevertheless, the pack will take on all-comers and victories against Ireland, Wales and Italy at Murrayfield are possible.
Ireland, hampered by injuries in the back row and back three, are further inconvenienced by Declan Kidney’s affection for long-serving Munster forwards. Quite what more Leo Cullen and Shane Jennings have to do to warrant selection is a mystery. Nevertheless, their Leinster backs should be good enough to see them past Italy tomorrow though I doubt they can win all three of their away fixtures.
Wales lack beef up front and may have to settle for stymying England’s hopes tonight. They could be turned over by plucky Italy in Rome too. That leaves France as marginal favourites for the title, though actually I suspect it will come down to points differential as Ireland, France and England could each finish with four wins from five. (A four way tie with all parties losing twice is improbable but not utterly inconceivable.)
Anyway, consider this an open thread for your predictions, hopes and fears for the weeks to come…
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