Ashcroft poll suggests that the Tories might do better under AV than first past the post

A Lord Ashcroft poll of marginal seats suggests, intriguingly, that the Tories could do as well—if not better—under AV than first past the post. Now, this is, obviously, just one poll. But it is the first one that looks the effect AV would have in all the various types of marginals.

My first reaction to this poll was that it was striking that Ashcroft had chosen to publicise it, most of his polling remains private. His decision to public it suggest that, at the very least, he is not vehemently opposed to AV.

This poll will lead to more Tories taking a closer look at AV. The traditional Tory view has always been that AV is an anti-Tory voting system. But the more polls like this one and the YouGov one for the Spectator that show that it is not—at least at the moment—the more likely it is that some Tories will come round to it.