There are signs that the presidential race is on the verge of tipping decisively Obama’s way. A string of polls in battleground states have shown Obama moving into strong leads and even those swing states like Missouri and Florida that were leaning McCain are now going Obama’s way. In a sign of the McCain’s campaign difficulty, McCain is reportedly pulling out of Michigan—long regarded as his best chance for flipping a large, normally Democratic state—which would seriously limit his options for getting to 270 Electoral College votes.
One of the reasons that the McCain campaign is in such trouble is Sarah Palin. She has gone from being an asset to the ticket to a drag on it. She might have enthused the Republican volunteer operation but she is not persuading swing voters. Her recent interview performances, which have been painfully poor, have helped push down her ratings. 32 percent of voters, according to the ABC/Washington Poll, now say that her selection makes them less likely to vote for McCain while only 23 percent say it makes them more likely to. 60 percent think she doesn’t have the experience to serve effectively as president and 49 percent believe she doesn’t understand complex issues. If Palin messes up in the debate one has to assume these numbers will drop still further and she will become even more of a problem for McCain in a year in which the Republican ticket needs everything to go right for it.
The financial crisis appears to be working in Obama’s favour; it seems to prove his point that the country needs radical change. The lack of economic expertise on the ticket has meant that the McCain campaign’s response to the crisis has worsened their political problem. While Palin’s presence means that it is far harder for McCain to present himself as the safe, experienced choice in the race.
Obviously, events could intervene again before election day and turn things in McCain’s favour. But barring some unforeseen event it seems essential to McCain’s aim of keeping this race competitive for Palin to turn in a strong performance tonight. This would slow Obama’s momentum and give the McCain campaign a chance to get back on the front foot. By contrast, a poor one might give Obama a boost that puts him out of McCain’s reach for good.
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