Gordon Brown’s effort to give up biting his nails just received a boost with the release of an ICM poll of Glasgow East which shows Labour 14 points ahead, 47 to 33 ahead of the SNP. This poll will create a strong expectation that Labour will hold the seat and probably put a stop to—or at least reduce—speculation about a challenge to Brown following a defeat here. However—as Anthony Wells points out—polling a constituency like Glasgow East is a phenomenally difficult task. It is also worth noting that the SNP has almost doubled its support in the seat since the last election which suggests that things will tighten further as the campaign goes on.
If Labour does hold Glasgow East, the next test for Brown is going to be the gap between Labour and the Tories after the conference season. A Tory poll lead of more than 15 percent is going to give added impetus to all the chatter about a possible challenge to Brown.
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