Whatever your thoughts on the SNP, the Union or indeed Scotland, it cannot be denied that Nicola Sturgeon will leave a permanent mark on Britain’s political landscape. Whether that mark is good or bad will no doubt be the focus of intense debate for years to come.
Making her 286th and final First Minister’s Questions closing speech this week, the usually immovable First Minister was close to tears. This resignation is to her likely bittersweet given she did not end up achieving Scottish independence. And this raises the question: after holding the first minister position for eight years, what actually changed in that time?
Soon after she became first minister in 2014, Sturgeon went on to secure a landslide victory in the 2015 general election, where the SNP went from six seats to 56. She created a gender-balanced cabinet and under her leadership the number of women working for the Scottish government increased until they equalled, and then overtook, the number of men. She is widely regarded as a talented speaker and skilled political operator and she has been cited as an inspiration to women and girls.
Nicola Sturgeon is widely regarded as a talented speaker and skilled political operator and she has been cited as an inspiration to women and girls
It is clear that Sturgeon’s resignation is a significant loss for the Scottish National party. But that doesn’t mean the SNP leader wasn’t also a divisive figure. Sturgeon has faced criticism for her bids to secure a second independence referendum. Many people, including SNP voters, feel that independence was prioritised over more pertinent issues: namely, the cost of living crisis, the economy and public services.
And it’s on policy that her government has fallen short. Sturgeon said on becoming first minister that she wanted to be judged on her government’s attempts to close the poverty-related attainment gap in education. Yet in 2021 a report from Audit Scotland found that ‘progress on closing the [attainment] gap has been limited and falls short of the Scottish government’s aims’.
On health, Scotland’s NHS has experienced record A&E waiting times. The target is that 95 per cent of patients should be seen within four hours of presenting, yet in January of this year, only 69 per cent were able to. Audit Scotland’s recent report on the health service expressed frustration with the Scottish government’s ‘NHS Recovery Plan’, saying its document was ‘a high-level, top-down document and does not contain the detailed actions that would allow overall progress to be accurately measured’. It noted that the workforce crisis ‘predates the pandemic’ and condemns planning for ‘not [being] informed by robust modelling’. Though it is important to note that the country has so far managed to avoid healthcare worker walkouts, pay disputes will see Scotland’s junior doctors balloted for strike action next Wednesday.
Meanwhile, drug deaths in Scotland remain the highest in the UK and Europe. Sturgeon cited her government’s minimum unit pricing policy as one of their successes, yet alcohol deaths in Scotland rose by some five per cent and have generally been increasing relatively steadily since 2012.
When it comes to Sturgeon’s successor, regardless of who wins the leadership race, there will be a marked deviation from things as they are now. One of the two frontrunners, Kate Forbes, has said about her own party that ‘more of the same is an acceptance of mediocrity’. A different approach is needed on the economy, she feels: instead of furthering Sturgeon’s policy of progressive taxation, she wants to expand the tax base to generate wealth as part of plans that fellow contender Ash Regan has labelled 'trickle down'.
Other SNP policies have been heavily criticised during the leadership race too, including the deposit return scheme and the gender bill. Contender Ash Regan quit from her position as minister for community safety due to objections about the Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) Bill. It wasn’t just politicians who had qualms with the legislation: around the time it was passed at the end of 2022, approximately 10,000 members left the party.
And all of the candidates running to become the next leader of the SNP have pointed out issues with the party’s approach to independence. This was a key factor in Sturgeon’s decision to resign, according to the Times: she had run out of options in the push for independence. Both frontrunners in the race are keen to focus more on attracting No voters to the party, while Ash Regan has repeatedly said that Sturgeon was ‘only half-right’ on the correct way to achieve independence.
Despite this, the First Minister has been a totemic figure in Scotland and her social progressiveness has managed to entice new members, both young and old. Though the Scottish public's rejection of her gender bill shouldn't be understated, many voters view Nicola Sturgeon as a leader who helped pave the way for a more tolerant, kinder Scotland, and her desire to ‘make Scotland right for everyone’ has often been praised. In reflecting on her leadership, many Scots tend to mention how she inspired women and girls, both in her role as the first female first minister and in her policies like the baby box. Others describe the ways in which she made Scotland 'proud' by how she represented the country ‘on the global stage’. Her response and handling of the Covid pandemic has been cited by some as one of the most important and notable periods of her career.
That said, Nicola Sturgeon leaves behind an SNP which appears increasingly fractious and volatile. Both frontrunners have already pledged to distance themselves from her ‘inner circle’ style of governing – but who knows what that will mean for a party so used to strict discipline. Kate Forbes, if successful, will have to work alongside a host of senior SNP politicians who chose not to endorse her, and some who even actively distanced themselves from her following the media frenzy around her religious views. Humza Yousaf will have to build bridges of his own if he takes the top spot, both with the wider public, who according to the polls don’t appear to rate him highly, but also with his own membership, following recent revelations regarding a culture of secrecy in SNP HQ. Sturgeon herself is unlikely to get to relax anytime soon as long as questions about why she chose to resign refuse to disappear – and as she looks set to face a court battle over the Alex Salmond inquiry.
Can she be proud of what she has left in her wake? Nicola Sturgeon’s legacy lies in her skilled communication style – that helped comfort and reassure the people of Scotland throughout the Covid pandemic and which also led to years of electoral success – and with her unembellished political style which helped motivate young people across the country. That is not to say her time in government was without flaws; her delivery often concealed the lack of progress the SNP was making on a number of policy areas.
Is there a message here for her successor? Scots have probably accepted at this point that their next first minister will not be as good an orator or debater as Sturgeon. But at this stage, it is policy delivery that will be crucial to winning back voters before the general election in 2024.
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