Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity has plummeted in Scotland

A lot has happened in the last fortnight of Scottish politics, most notably the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon. This development has not passed voters by. Though support for Scottish independence remains steady, the reputation of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has taken a substantial knock. Meanwhile, the threat posed by Labour to the SNP’s dominance of the country’s politics may now be even greater. These are the key messages from two new polls that provide us with the first glimpse of the public mood north of the border in the wake of Sturgeon’s arrest. 

One poll, from Savanta, started its polling a few days before the former First Minister was taken into police custody, but two-thirds of its interviews were conducted after Sturgeon was released without charge. The second poll by Panelbase carried out all its interviews after the news of Sturgeon’s arrest had broken.

The two polls agree on one key point: the political whirlwind that has buffeted the SNP in recent weeks continues to have little impact on support for independence. On average, they put independence support at 48 per cent – the same figure recorded by polls since the arrest in early April of Peter Murrell, husband to Sturgeon and former chief executive of the SNP, who was also subsequently released without charge. Indeed, support for independence has remained at its current level for most of the last two-and-a-half years. The takeaway? It appears the foundations of peoples’ attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional status are evidently too deeply rooted to be swayed by the institutional difficulties of one political party.

Yet despite her long-standing popularity, the same cannot be said of attitudes towards Ms Sturgeon herself. Less than 40 per cent now feel favourably towards the former First Minister according to Savanta – while almost half (46 per cent) regard her unfavourably. Panelbase reported similar results: less than a third of their interviewees feel that Sturgeon is doing a good job, while 48 per cent believe she is performing badly. 

These figures represent a near complete reversal of those previously registered by these two polls. It is also the first time the former First Minister has had a net negative rating in Savanta’s polling.

More detailed questioning by that company reveals there have been particularly sharp drops in the proportion of those who regard Sturgeon as trustworthy, honest or genuine. This suggests that Sturgeon’s arrest has raised doubts in the minds of some voters, albeit perhaps unfairly, about how straightforward she has been with them. In any event, the decline in the former First Minister’s standing among independence supporters is notable: it suggests that Ms Sturgeon’s iconic stature among nationalists is now under threat.

There is little sign that Yousaf is having much success in strengthening his own popular appeal either. According to Savanta, less than a third of those polled feel favourably towards him, while almost four in ten regard him unfavourably. These ratings are little changed from what they were when Yousaf became SNP leader. 

But how much of a threat do Scottish Labour now pose to the nationalist dominance of Scotland’s representation at Westminster? Although down on where it stood before the SNP leadership contest, the polls have been suggesting that support for the SNP at the next general election was – at 38 per cent – holding steady. But has the arrest of Sturgeon had more of an impact on voters than that of her husband?

The two polls are not entirely in agreement on this. According to Savanta, the impact of the former First Minister’s arrest has been minimal – just a one point swing from the SNP to Labour – though this was still enough to put Labour on 34 per cent, the party’s highest rating in any poll since just after the independence referendum.

Yet according to Panelbase, there has been as much as a four point swing from the SNP to Labour since the end of March – enough for Labour to draw level with the SNP for the first time since 2014 and an outcome that, given its geographically more concentrated vote, would likely result in Labour emerging with the most MPs 

Moreover, this poll suggests that Yes voters in particular have withdrawn their support from the SNP. The swing from the SNP to Labour since late March largely occurred among those who voted for independence in 2014, suggesting that the already somewhat frayed link between support for independence and support for the SNP has weakened further. Between them, the two polls suggest that one in six Yes voters are now backing Labour. 

More polling is needed before we can be sure the arrest of Sturgeon has significantly damaged the SNP’s electoral position. But either way the obvious conclusion is hard to miss: any further loss of support could cost the party dear. SNP and Labour prospects for the general election are now very much on a knife edge.