John Curtice

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Research Fellow at NatCen Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’.

Things look bleak for the Tories

Thursday’s local elections almost inevitably produced a cacophony of information. That presented the parties with plenty of opportunity to cherry pick results that appeared to present their performance in a better light – thereby potentially distracting attention from less convincing performances. If Reform had fought these local elections more widely, the picture might have looked

Why Labour is 99 per cent likely to form the next government

Academic conferences – even ones about politics – rarely make the news. This week’s annual conference of UK political scientists at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow talked about many interesting topics, including the link between football and populism in Southern Europe and the role that comedy plays in the formation of Scottish identity. But

It gets worse and worse for Rishi Sunak

Sixteen months ago Rishi Sunak was installed as Conservative leader and prime minister in the hope that he would be able to turn his party’s fortunes around in the wake of the damage inflicted on the party’s popularity by Liz Truss’ ‘fiscal event’. However, Thursday’s by-elections confirm the message of the polls that Mr Sunak

Labour triumphs in by-election brace

12 min listen

Labour has the won two by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood, overturning big Conservative majorities in the process. Party chairman Richard Holden has brushed the results off as typical midterm by-elections where voters what to give the government a kicking. Does this argument stack up? And what can Reform take from the results? Isabel Hardman speaks

Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity has plummeted in Scotland

A lot has happened in the last fortnight of Scottish politics, most notably the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon. This development has not passed voters by. Though support for Scottish independence remains steady, the reputation of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has taken a substantial knock. Meanwhile, the threat posed by Labour to the SNP’s dominance

What the local election results really mean

The last twelve months have been traumatic for the Conservative Party. It has elected and deposed two party leaders. It has found itself caught in a financial crisis of its own making. And most recently it has faced a still largely unresolved ‘winter of discontent’ from a public sector workforce that, like much of those

Are Yes voters abandoning the SNP?

New party leaders usually deliver their party a boost in the polls. One of the first signs that voters were not comfortable with Liz Truss as their Prime Minister was the absence of any rise in Conservative fortunes following her success last September in securing the keys to 10 Downing St. Those doubts were then

What happens to the Tory party now?

Liz Truss is not quite the shortest-serving prime minister in history. George Cunning has that prize because he died while he was in office. But for somebody who is still alive, at least, this is the shortest running term. If MPs can whittle the number of candidates down to two by, let’s say, Tuesday the

Has Boris got away with it?

14 min listen

After the news of the fixed penalty notices, Boris Johnson, his wife Carrie Johnson and Rishi Sunak paid their fines and issued a public apology. For Boris, the reaction has been surprisingly positive compared to the beginning of the year. The majority of cabinet ministers have come out in support of the Prime Minister, but

Why Labour lost

I thought I would take as my starting points what seems to be the internal debate inside the Labour party as to why it ended up where it did in the election. Thesis number one: it was Brexit wot did it. Thesis number two: it was being too left-wing wot did it. I’m going to