Russia’s nuclear blackmail

‘Dear Ukrainians! And all people of the world: everyone! I emphasise this,’ Volodymyr Zelensky said in a televised speech yesterday. Russia, he said, is planning a ‘terrorist attack’ using radiation leakage at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. Ukrainian intelligence repeatedly warned that Russian forces have sown mines in the plant, as it appears that they did with the Nova-Kakhovka dam. Ukrainians are gripped by an unsettling sense of déjà vu, fearing that the nuclear plant, which is under Russian control, will inevitably suffer the same fate.

The Zaporizhzhia plant has been under Russian control since last March and has served as a safe facility for weapons and ammunition storage. Ukrainian forces wouldn’t dare to shell the nuclear plant for fear of turning the region into a second Chernobyl. Now Kyiv is afraid that Russia will blow up the plant to frustrate the Ukrainian counter-offensive. However, Ukraine’s allies, apart from expressing condemnation, have yet to take the actions that the president appealed for in further speeches. Zelensky called on the intelligence services of Ukraine’s allies to ‘give appropriate signals, put pressure on [Russia]’ to prevent any radiation incident and to implement harsher sanctions.

International efforts to establish a demilitarised zone around the nuclear plant have failed so far: Russia does not want to abandon a facility it can use as blackmail against Kyiv. Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, visited the plant last week to evaluate ‘new risks’. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s report described the nuclear safety and security situation at the plant as ‘extremely fragile’. It confirmed that mines are positioned outside the plant perimeter and at ‘at particular places’ inside. When asked why, Russian forces cited defensive purposes.

The nuclear plant was built to withstand earthquakes, flooding and has a protective cover designed to ensure that in case of any accidents inside or outside the power unit, all radioactive substances remain inside. After the catastrophe in Fukushima in 2011, Ukraine upgraded its nuclear power plants to withstand natural disasters or technical malfunctions – but not landmines planted by an occupying army.

Even if there was a major explosion at Zaporizhzhia, it wouldn’t cause a disaster on the scale of Chernobyl because, since the occupation, the plant is working at minimum capacity. If reactors in a state of cold shutdown are blown up, radioactive substances will leak into the Dnipro river and the Black Sea according to Olena Pareniuk, a scientist at the Ukrainian Institute of Nuclear Power Plant Safety Problems. But if the explosion damages the working reactor, radiation will leak into the atmosphere, causing a much wider issue. As Zelensky said: ‘Radiation has no state borders, and who it will hit is determined only by the wind direction.’

When Chernobyl happened, forces from all over the USSR (with a couple of days of delay) were dispatched to stop the disaster. But if an accident occurs at Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine may find itself dealing with the fallout alone. This mirrors the aftermath of the destruction of the Nova-Kakhovka dam: because of active hostilities, no country will send rescuers.

The Ukrainian government plans to establish an emergency response headquarters staffed by energy workers, rescuers, police and doctors. In the coming days, they will be trained and properly equipped to work during a period of radiation leakage. According to Ihor Klymenko, the head of the ministry of internal affairs, about 500,000 citizens will need to be evacuated from a 200-kilometre zone around the nuclear plant. The Ukrainian health ministry has already published guidance on how to survive a radiation accident: find shelter, tape windows shut, turn off ventilation systems, wear a respirator, change your clothes, don’t drink tap water, etc. ‘Russia is a terrorist country, from which, like a monkey with a grenade, you can expect anything. The threat [of a radiation accident] was, is and will be [present] until we finally win. Until then, we have to be ready,’ it said.